US midterms 2026 latest: Two states that could change America

Well, hello there, and welcome to Al Jazeera's Midterms Roundup. It's good to have you with us. I'm Jonah Hull. The battle for Congress and the trajectory of the country over the next two years really hinges on Senate races in two states. Texas is one of them, the prize that's eluded Democrats for years. Now they see a chance to take a seat in that Republican stronghold where the president himself has been deployed to rally supporters. And then there's Michigan, deeply affected by Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada and which could elect its first Muslim senator. Alex Baird now to explain what's at stake. So we've got two pivotal states we're going to really zoom in on today. First off, you've got Texas, races for 38 House seats and one for the Senate. And that Senate seat is turning out to be a fierce battle between these two, Ken Paxton and James Tallarico, because it's been classed as a total toss-up. We'll get back to that one in a second because it is a biggie, but we're also going to be crossing into Michigan. There you've got 13 House seats up, and again, one Senate seat that's open and is polling extremely tightly. The Democrats have got Abdul Al-Sayed, and on the other side, Mike Rogers. And the rhetoric between them has been getting heated and bitter, with Donald Trump calling Al-Sayed a jihadist who can't be trusted. Now, I can't overestimate to you just how important these two seats are, because they are true toss-ups. They could dictate who gets to hold power up on Capitol Hill. When you look back at previous elections in states like Texas, this is a Senate seat in Texas in 2020, red. 2014, red. This is usually a reliably Republican seat. In fact, the last time a Democrat was elected here was in 1988. And that's happening across the states, usually reliably Republican seats, shifting the other direction and threatening to flip, possibly, both the Senate and the House. And if that happens, it's a big deal. Well, we've got correspondents in key locations, in Texas, in Michigan, in New Hampshire, and in Kentucky. We begin, though, with Phil Lavelle in Corpus Christi, where Donald Trump is back. Phil, he keeps returning. Telling us what exactly about Republican concerns in Texas right now. Well, telling us quite a lot, if you read between the lines. You know, the good people of Texas have probably never seen so much of President Trump. Four visits in seven weeks, which, to put that into context, is twice as many as we saw at the comparable period leading up to the 2024 election, which perhaps shows just how concerned Republicans are. And J.D. Vance is also going to be here on Thursday. Now, President Trump says Republicans are winning big here. Obviously, the polls do not tend to reflect that. They show it as a tie-up. Maybe James Tallarico, the Democrat, slightly ahead, although within the margin of error. But there is some analysis locally that suggests Republicans are voting more in early voting. Now, it's important to point out That does not mean that Republicans are voting Republican now. In fact, part of the campaign strategy from James Tallarico has been to try to appeal to those disillusioned Trump voters. And even Fox News, which is, you could say, is friendly to conservative voices, friendly to President Trump, says that according to its analysis, three out of 10 non-MAGA Republicans say they are voting for James Tallarico. So that's obviously concerning for them. You know, there is so much attention here. There is so much money, including a lot of money thrown in by Elon Musk. And that, too, has become a campaign issue. Ken Paxton is funded by one dude. Elon Musk wants our land. He wants our water. He wants our tax dollars. He wants his very own personal United States senator. He is trying to buy Texas. But on November 3rd, on November 3rd, we are going to deliver a crystal clear message to the world's first trillionaire. Texas is not for sale. James Tallarico does have a plan for your money. It just doesn't include you. He is a radical who has never met a tax increase he didn't love. In the Texas legislature, he voted to force a state income tax on each one of you. What do you think of that? James Tallarico, he wants to tax your tips. He wants to tax your overtime and he wants to tax your Social Security. That is who he is. So President Trump will be alone here, but then he's going to meet Ken Paxton at a rally in Lubbock, which is way over the other side of this large state this evening. James Tallarico is holding a competing rally pretty much at the same time. That is a very conservative area, which just goes to show how the Democrats are trying to appeal to those Republicans. The Republicans are trying to say to other Republicans, look, you've just got to get out and vote. This is all about turnout, turnout, turnout now. Phil, thank you. Well, let's go to that other big Senate race now, Michigan, the one that Alex was teeing up for us a little earlier. The fight there between Abdel El-Sayed and Mike Rogers is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country. President Trump attacked the Democratic candidate on Sunday, calling him a jihadist and pointing to him being a national security risk if elected. Well, El-Sayed has hit back at Trump's comments. And so instead of having to talk about those issues, instead of having to answer for their policies Donald Trump decided to come here and talk about backsides he decided to come here and talk about me i'm not here to talk about me i'm here to talk about you we have an alternative in this race you have a choice between a corporate backed politician who made millions off of his time in public service who wants to do the bidding of the worst president to ever serve in the office and Donald Trump who cannot stand up to Iran war cannot stand up to the tariff war and will certainly not stand up for Detroiters. That's right. Well, let's take you to Michigan now. Richard Gaisford is in Ann Arbor for us and a hugely closely watched race this, Richard, for all sorts of reasons, not least because the Republicans are really zeroing in on one thing, Abdul El-Sayed's Muslim identity. Tell us more. Yeah, you can hear the frustration there from Abdul El-Sayed. He really wants to be talking about policies and yet so much of the noise around what is such a crucial Senate race, as Alex explained so well there, really is now about his faith, his family, and what the president and others are saying are alleged allegiances to terror groups. He keeps trying to bat it away, Abdel El-Sayed. He keeps saying he wants to take money out of politics. He wants to put it back into people's pockets. He really wants to provide health care for all. But all the Republicans want to talk about is his Islamic faith. and it is becoming a very divisive issue on the ground. We are here today in Ann Arbor. It is home to the University of Michigan. It's a very beautiful place, as you can see. It's also Abdul El-Sayed's hometown. He came to university here, he stuck around, and he's often seen at the college football games. This weekend was a big match, Indiana versus Michigan, here in Ann Arbor. More than 100,000 people crammed into the stadium and a really good place to get a view of people who come from all over the state. For as long as they've had cars in America, there's been tailgating parties at big sporting events. Here, it's blues versus reds. But whilst fans of Michigan and Indiana mix beautifully, there's a pronounced divide when it comes to political colors. I think Mike Rogers has demonstrated that he would only back Trump's policies rather than people from Michigan. I think Abdul is very dangerous to our state, to our country. Well, it's game day here in Ann Arbor, and in terms of American football, this Senate race here in Michigan is certainly tied going into the final quarter. Both candidates have been using the college football games for campaigning, hoping to sway the crowd. Tonto is a Native American who's backing Abdul El-Sayed for victory. I was a Republican forever, okay? And I, but I became an independent the last two elections. I don't really vote for a party anymore. I vote for who I think will do the best job. Republican Mike Rogers has an almost equal slice of the vote in the polls, with Republicans here seeing the Senate race as an existential battle. I want nothing to do with Abdul Aziz. And I think Mike Rogers has the experience to deliver for us in Michigan. It's been a difficult road with Trump. I mean, we know the war, everyone's upset, but it's like everyone, I think, has to think about, this is not Trump. I'm just so tired of the commercials on both sides. Greg Beatty might not like the adverts, but as a former professional American footballer, he understands the bruising battle that's going on in the race for the Senate here. You get used to being knocked down, you get used to losing, and you have to get back up, and you have to go at it again. You weren't tempted by politics yourself? No. I'm far too honest to ever be elected as a politician. And in a political game that's currently too close to call, it's certain they'll be arguing about the eventual share of the vote. Richard Gaisford, Al Jazeera in Ann Arbor, Michigan. From Michigan to New Hampshire's Senate race, where the Democrats are challenging a Republican political dynasty. Eva McKendry is there in Manchester, New Hampshire. And it's not just the Republicans, is it, Eva? the Democrats, too. Both parties are running popular candidates with deep roots in the state. That's right, Jonah. Democratic candidate for Senate Chris Pappas, as well as Republican candidate for Senate John Sununu, both come from deep political legacies here in the state. Pappas' family owning a popular restaurant here in the state. And of course, Sununu, his brother, served as the most recent governor but they both have to confront the same issues and that is affordability as we crisscross this state talking to voters they largely bring up the same issues the cost of heating oil the cost of food gas and just the overall cost of living democrats have long campaigned on confronting this issue head on and making american life more affordable for working class people. So I put this question to Pappas. What makes this moment different? Here's what he told me. We've got to stop these cuts to health care. We've got to end this war in Iran. We've got to make sure that we're providing relief that people deserve right now, investing in affordable housing and child care, the kinds of things we can do if we get the majority back. Now, another major issue is going to be the solvency of Social Security in this contest. It's what's dominating this race right now. Now, as for Sununu, he has not said what his concrete position is. He only has said that he won't address it the same way he did 20 years ago, when arguably he was pursuing a path to privatizing Social Security. Hard to believe, but he did serve in the Senate about that time ago. Meanwhile, Pappas giving us a more concrete answer. But let's turn back to the voters and listen to how they're feeling about all these issues. I'm a Democrat, but I also vote and I vote who I feel should be in the office. And I don't care whether they're Republican or Democrat or independent. Basically, everybody is getting stepped on, except for a very small group of people who are extremely corrupt and continue to enrich themselves publicly, and nobody seems to be willing to take any action to do anything about it. Well, President Trump was in Mississippi on Monday to support Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. I'm here because Cindy's doing great, but I just gotta make sure I can't take a chance. I can't take a chance. You got no problem? The only problem is, sometimes, and this happens, and sometimes when you think somebody's doing so well, nobody votes. They all stay home. Oh, Cindy's great. She's going to do no problem. Let's stay home. And then bad things happen, Cindy, right? So that's why I'm here. Just get out and vote because she's she's going to win big. Well, let's talk about that with Heidi Joe Castro's in Lexington, Kentucky. And Heidi, it's not exactly normal, is it, to see a Republican president campaigning in the deep red south? How much did Democrats begin to favor their chances now. Yeah, this is really a surprise that it's become sort of a battleground. Mississippi has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in 40 years. And if the Democratic candidate here, Scott Colome, wins, he'd be the first black senator elected by the state since Reconstruction. He is trailing in the polls to the incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. However, if he manages to turn out the black vote and he has the NAACP support on that, he might be able to change the balance, and enough national Democrats believe in him that they've actually infused his campaign with some last-minute money. And that does have Donald Trump worried. That's why we saw him in Mississippi last night, interesting pic of a town of fewer than 1,500 residents where no U.S. president has visited in nearly a century, and they turned out en masse to support the president, filling that small arena and being very enthusiastic, though some did tell reporters that prior to the president's arrival, they didn't know that much about these Republican congressional candidates. The funny thing is, Trent Kelly and Cindy Hyde-Smith didn't draw my attention until I figured Trump was coming here. And for him to have to come to Corinth, it's got to be an issue. So that's when we started looking into it. And now we know more about Cindy, Trent Kelly. Now we know. I mean, I know the economy is struggling, but it's for the greater good of our country. You know, I could pay a little bit higher gas prices so that my grandchildren can grow up and continue to grow up in a free world. Now, this region of the country is a MAGA stronghold. The crowd was very supportive of President Trump. But there was silence when he brought up those gas prices, telling the crowd that they were actually not as high as he had anticipated when he authorized the military strikes against Iran. Jonah. Heidi, thank you. And the state of Georgia rounds us out now. Another increasingly close Senate race there, as Matthew Torres reports, the farming community plays a central role in the political conversation. Did you know Georgia is the largest producer of peanuts in the country? Blueberries and pecans also top that list, contributing more than $90 billion to the state's economy. Agriculture here is key. The state has 40,000 farms, and that number has steadily gone down throughout the years. These farms are in typical conservative counties in Georgia. Despite seeing a surge in early votes in cities and suburbs, early voting in these rural communities has stayed somewhat flat, some even seeing a decline. And these are areas where President Donald Trump carried in 2024. Typically, Republicans vote on Election Day. But even the Republican candidate for the governor's race, Rick Jackson, has expressed concerns. He believes that rural Georgians still have that idea that this state is reliably red. This peanut industry particularly has also been a political talking point, especially for the Democratic nominee for the Senate race, Senator John Ossoff. The chair of the Georgia Peanut Commission has endorsed him, saying he's doing so because Ossoff has helped contribute federal funding to Georgia peanut farmers. It is just one example where we're seeing a bit of a crack in how people vote along party lines. Matthew Torres, Al Jazeera, Meadow, Georgia. Well, thanks for watching. That was the Midterms Roundup here on Al Jazeera. Coming up at 18.30, GMT, 2.30 p.m. Eastern Time here in the United States. This is America looks at the independent voters who could decide control of Congress.