Presidents descend on Michigan in tight midterm race

Elections just over a week away, and some big names are out on the campaign trail. Now today, President Trump is going to Mississippi after campaigning in Michigan for Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers. Former President Obama was also in Michigan this weekend. He was campaigning for the Democratic candidate, Abdul El-Sayed. I'm here to keep a jihadist Muslim Brotherhood member from becoming a United States Senator. It feels like change is in the air. Michigan, that's what I'm feeling right now. Now, new polls are out showing Democrats are better positioned now to win the House. However, the U.S. Senate may still be a toss-up. To talk more about this, we're joined now by David McEwen, our political science professor from Sonoma State. Hey, David, good morning. Welcome to a new week. Yes, Dave, less than 200 hours until the election. now. Man, I didn't. You put it like that. It's really here. So look, you see all the campaigning and all the comments. What are your thoughts this morning? Look, this is the time where this past weekend, kind of 10 days in, nine days in, where the whole campaign changes in terms of what the campaigns themselves are doing. You move to a canvas and you move to what's called GOTV or get out the voter first. When you see Donald Trump, the president in Upper Peninsula, Michigan, you see the former President Barack Obama in Detroit, Michigan. They each know that winning Michigan determines the direction of the Senate. So the stakes there are high. Democrats are expanding their map. That means they're expanding their map in terms of House races, down ballot, what's going on. And if you look at the Senate, the Senate still is a tough map for Democrats. And that's why you see the President trying to, if you will, while their map is contracting, they're trying to hold on to their base or their base plus. That's why he's going to Mississippi. Look for them to where the president goes later this week. Does he go to Kansas? Does he go to Iowa? Is he back to Ohio? Where is he going to hold on to those Senate seats? Because if you flip the House and the Senate, it's a completely different ballgame for what goes on in Washington, D.C. That's another reason the stakes are so high. This is really interesting to me. I'm looking at the House speaker saying that the polls are all wrong. Democrats are not going to take the House. We see things like that. And also the treasury secretary saying even if democrats should win the house or the senate the trump administration is still going to do what we want to do yeah this would be very interesting kind of development it makes if the House flips, Senate flips, one or both, uh it makes the lame duck session in December, uh absolutely key. Look, 20 of the last 22 midterm elections, the party in power has lost seats. It's one of the like ironclad rules of American politics. If you look at a president's second midterm, this is Donald Trump's second midterm, average midterm loss is 33 seats. Our models currently show that the Democrats pick up between 28 and 38 seats in the House, and the Senate's still a toss-up. You have to pay attention to presidential approval and what's called the generic ballot. Generically, for all things being equal, would you vote for the in-party or the out-party? When there's a trifecta, When one party owns the House, the Senate, and the presidency, trifectas don't last in American politics. And therefore, in the generic ballot, the Democrat favorability number is plus nine. That means they have a nine-point advantage, generically, over Republicans. And as that number moves to, say, 10 points, above eight points, it really kind of cascades a number of House seats. So pay attention to where people are spending their time this week, Because while we see a lot of ads on TV, really the key thing, the key element, the most precious element now, with less than 200 hours, is the notion of time. All right, David, and those voting centers are opening, too. David McKeown, our political science professor from Sonoma State, thank you for being with us, as always, on Mornings on 2. Go have a great Monday, Dave. Thank you. You as well.