26 Million Early Votes: It's Better for Republicans Than You Think

More than 26 million Americans have already voted in the 2026 midterms, and Democrats lead the early vote. So will Republicans win the midterms, or is it over? It's better for Republicans than you think. In 2022, Democrats led the early vote by nine points, and Republicans won the House. We score it round by round, eight rounds and one bonus point: the early voting data, the polls, the forecasters, the Senate toss-ups and midterm history. Our score: Republicans 4½, Democrats 4. Every number is sourced on screen. Numbers are a snapshot as of October 24-25, 2026.

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