James Kaufman will news report today.
Ladies and gentlemen we're having a super quiet day as far as
space weather or solar activity here on planet Earth.
We currently have very light winds at
364 kilometers per second and plasma
is around 3.64 centimeters cubed. You can see that with
with our Kp indexes here they show us a combination of plasma
and solar winds these are four Kp
indexes located in different parts of the country
the estimated planetary Kp index is used by NOAA
and NASA exclusively it's supposedly upgraded
and the higher the bars go the three hour bars
the more plasma is in the air, and the faster the solar winds are.
And we're seeing hardly any solar winds, like I said,
262 kilometers per second,
and hardly any plasma at 3.64 cm3.
So this is a quiet, quiet day here on Earth.
But that's all going to change very shortly.
All right, after a long period of quiet, we've had four M-class
solar flares, the last one being this 6.9 that we just had,
getting up there close to being an X-class solar flare.
Now, I don't think that any of these have Earth components,
but the sunspot groups that generated them are becoming more
and more Earth-facing every moment.
Now, we're also dealing
with a directly Earth-facing sunspot group, 4, 4, 7, 0.
These, well, mainly came from 4, 4, 7, 2,
the first one, and the last three from 4, 4, 7, 3.
4, 4, 7, 3 has just come around the limb.
It's already a beta gamma class sunspot.
So it's very close to being the most complex sunspot
that we know of, Delta-class.
Again, it just spat out a 6.9-class M-flare, and again,
I don't think that it's going to have an Earth component to it.
With that said, the X-rays coming
from the flare pounded North America, so you never know.
So a fairly big flare.
And as AR4472 and AR4473 become more
earth-facing, we could have some real problems.
I want you all to also recall that we have
a very large sunspot on the backside of the sun.
It's really misbehaving.
And the Europeans have put a warning out about it.
We also have a coronal hole that is really already Earth-facing.
We should expect solar winds within about 35 hours,
and that can last up to 48 hours.
And that could be compounded with one of these solar flares.
Though, again, I think they're going to miss Earth.
All right, they don't even have it on the charts yet.
can see that 4473 has turned orange
which means it's beta gamma now and 4472 has done nothing
since generating that M1.06 solar flare yesterday
again we just had an M6.9 solar flare and they
have not assigned it to a region yet for its sunspot group
but we'll be able to distinctively see it
on GOES solar ultraviolet imager in just one moment.
We currently have a 5% chance of having
an X-class solar flare. That's awful close.
We only have a 35% chance of having an M-class
solar flare, but at least four of those in the last 48 hours,
and a 95% chance of having a C-class
solar flare. Currently running a C baseline,
but we have been running a B baseline. It's a very
weak sun all right over to HMI intensigram we got
four four six nine going around the limb i think
that is gone girl we have four four seven oh there's
a possibility that it could fire at any
moment and four four seven two responsible
for one of the M-flares the first M-class solar
and four four seven three
and now beta gamma sunspot group is responsible for the last three
in flares including the 6.9 magnitude M-class solar flare
and remember between these three sun
spots and also under 4470 we have a large coronal hole
that has formed in the last 24 hours and
don't forget about the backside monster spot all right
this was pretty much just taken here it's
It's going to be right before 3 p.m. Central here in the U.S.,
and well, that coronal hole looks to have almost closed up.
We do have this coronal hole here to deal with.
I don't know if we're going to expect solar winds or not.
This is 4470.
That's 4469.
This is 4472, and this is 4473.
And we'll show you that the last large flare came from 4473.
This is SDO-AIA at 193 angstroms.
Although this looks similar, this is GOES,
solar ultraviolet imager at 194 angstroms.
And you can see that a lot of that coronal hole we
were looking at earlier that was earth-facing
seems to have been, the canopy seems to have been covered.
We do have this smaller coronal hole,
but that won't be hitting us anytime soon.
It's not even earth-facing yet.
We've got 4, 4, 7, 0 here, 4, 4, 6, 9 going around the limb.
We have 4, 4, 7, 2 here,
and then we'll watch the flare from this area here.
Well, maybe they're going to call it 4, 4, 7, 2.
We're going to have to watch.
If it is 4472, which it looks like it very well could be,
instead of 773, there could be an Earth component to it.
You can definitely see that strong M flare pop off right there.
Now, based just on our absorption prediction center,
we see that Earth, especially North America,
and a lot of the Pacific,
got nailed by this M6.9 solar flare.
So that tells you that some of the plasma and or solar winds have
a chance of hitting our planet, even if it's a glancing blow.
Again, this is some heavy X-rays hitting
the planet from that last explosion.
And they might decide it was from AR-4472,
which is more Earth-facing than AR-4473.
with that said folks uh we'll know more in just
a few hours they haven't had time to model this
and i did check with both NOAA
and NASA let's see it's doing some funky stuff here it doesn't want
to subside but god bless you guys give us
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