Understanding the challenges faced by the Sahel Confederation in Africa

From around 1430 to 1591 a state called the Songhai Empire existed. Located in the western part of the Sahel which refers to this middle area of Africa where the ecosystem transitions between the more humid savannas to the south and the drier deserts to the north. It took up roughly what is today the territory of the countries of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. At its peak it was one of the largest African empires in history with its name coming from the native Songhai people. Gao was its capital today in Mali, with other important cities being Timbuktu and Djenne, also located in Mali, which shows us, along with this useful map, how the empire was mostly centered there. And now in 2024, over 400 years after the disappearance of the empire, it's back? Well, not really, but kind of. What is coming back today isn't a modern Songhai empire. In fact, I would say the only coincidence it has is that it happens to be in the same rough territory. This new organization, which one might be wrong in calling a country, is the Confederation of Sahel States. But then again, the CSA called itself a country and the USA are a country too, so while there might be a higher degree of political autonomy, I don't think it's too far-fetched to call this one a country in the making in itself. The Sahel Confederation has been officially created this week that I'm posting this video, between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso transitioning from their former military alliance. The original defense pact was created by the three countries in September of 2023 and the confederation was now established on July 6th of 2024. So, why does nobody like it? Well, for two reasons. First, it's anti-French, which makes most of Europe and France's allies throughout the world dislike it. And two, it's also against the economic community of West African states. This makes it so that all or most of its neighbors dislike it, potentially causing the rest of Africa to do so as well due to the instability that they bring to the continent. So now that we know what this new country is and why most people dislike it, let's find out why it came to exist and how it's supposed to work. First, history. Like I mentioned, the original defense pact between these countries was created during the 2023 crisis in which the West African political bloc, ECOWAS, threatened to intervene militarily to restore civilian rule after a coup in Niger earlier that year. Burkina Faso and Mali, in similarity to Niger, also found themselves under the control of military juntas, with the three states seemingly increasing ties to Russia after the changes in power and moving away from proximity to Western Europe, namely France, which still holds considerable influence in these former areas of their colonial empire. The Confederation's stated goal is to protect against possible threats of armed rebellion or external aggression. So, essentially a defensive alliance, like NATO is. That's the moment that immediately predates the establishment of the confederation, but how did we get there? The Sahel has been the site of ongoing rebel insurgencies since like 2003, which have led to many conflicts in the region, such as the Mali war and the Boko Haram insurgency. An alliance was formed back then between Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mauritania called the G5 Sahel Alliance and many European forces, especially French ones due to the former colonial connection, were brought in to aid these efforts. But they were not super successful and with some reason, plus the help of some disinformation propaganda, the people started disliking them. In 2022, Mali withdrew from the G5 Sahel Alliance, Niger and Burkina Faso did so in 2023, leading to the announcement of its dissolution by Chad and Mauritania three days later. This ongoing instability has led to, recently, each of these three now confederation member states having their democratically elected pro-western governments overthrown by their militaries and each of the three is now ruled by a junta as a part of the so-called coup belt, which also includes Sudan, Guinea and Chad. Regional instability, in addition to supposed Russian influence and support of these military groups have led to these coups. But it's also important to note that since 1990, 21 of the 27 coups in Sub-Saharan Africa have taken place in former French colonies, which has led some to question whether French influence in Africa has a destabilizing impact in itself. But before that, a quick word from our sponsor, you. Without you guys watching, none of our videos would be possible, and many of you go above and beyond through our patreon supporting us directly and helping us make better videos every week in exchange for your help there you get some cool benefits such as the opportunity to suggest video ideas having your name in the video description and the end credits of each video as well as early access to videos each week behind the scenes looks on the script writing and editing process polls to influence titles and thumbnails not to mention exclusive live streams with Q&A's and other topics and the opportunity to directly message me with anything you want to say. So if you want to help out the channel and access all of these exclusive perks, join the Knowledge Army today either as a medic, infantry, cavalry, artillery or even an officer. You can find everything in the link at the top of the description. Now let's get back to the video. When it comes to these three, first it was Mali in 2020 when Assimi Goita and the National Committee for the Salvation of the People seized power after overthrowing the elected president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. In 2022, a faction of Burkina Faso's military overthrew their existing military government, installing Ibrahim Traoré over Paul-Henri Damiba, who himself had come to power through a previous coup which toppled the democratic government of President Roch Marc Cabut. Most recently, in 2023, the National Council for the Safeguard of the homeland, removed the elected government of Niger's Mohamed Bazoum, installing Abdourahmane, Tiani and a new junta. After this coup in Niger, due to fear of instability spreading even more, as well as diplomatic pressure from the French, who get a lot of valuable resources from the West African region, ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West African States, threatened to intervene militarily and restore President Bazoum's government. Mali and Burkina Faso, and partially Guinea immediately offer their support to Niger, likely because they fear the same military intervention. The first three therefore created a defensive military alliance in late 2023 and even announced their abandonment of ECOWAS in 2024. There's no doubt that these are unelected and undemocratic military takeovers and Russian influence does seem to be very obvious with the aim of removing French influence in the region and weakening France by removing access to key resources. But one is also left to wonder if the three countries would have been so quick to ally each other and turn to Russia becoming near-pariah states to their neighbors if France hadn't pressured ECOWAS to intervene and even considered intervening themselves. Macron even stated that he would potentially take military action at the request of the post-Nigerian leader Mohamed Bazoum. With the Niger military leader accusing that France continues to deploy its forces in several countries as part of preparations for an aggression against Niger. So why did Macron have this position? The truth is Niger and West Africa are important to France. The colonial empire ended but the French still like holding influence there, namely when it comes to the control of their currencies. They also control many telecommunications companies and infrastructures, not to mention the important uranium mines that feed French nuclear plants back in Europe which supply most of the country's electricity. 2022, Niger uranium represented 20% of France's imports of this material. France's influence at the UN also becomes diminished this way, traditionally they bring in a lot of votes from their former colonies in the direction of whichever is their own interest. This loss of influence also puts their diplomatic standing at risk. And to add on to that, Niger makes up an important checkpoint of control for migrants coming from the Gulf of Guinea to the Mediterranean shores hoping to make it to Europe, and having a hostile government there might mean the allowance of more migrants to go on their way to enter Europe, causing additional troubles back home. In sum, local instability partnered with fair and unfair hostility towards the French, as well as the French's action, led to these military coups and their actions afterwards. And now, these three military juntas have gone a step further, moving away from just being in a defensive alliance and forming a confederation altogether. The alliance aims to first create an economic and monetary union with a proposed common currency called the Sahel. The week this video is being posted on, on July 6th, the military leaders met at a summit in Niamey in Niger and signed a confederation treaty. This meeting in the Nigerian capital brought together Abdoulaye Diop, Karamoko Traoré and Bakary Sangaré, respectively the ministers of foreign affairs of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, with one of them stating as he left that the confederation of the alliance of Sahel states is born. The aim of gathering was to finalize the draft text of the institutionalization and operationalization of the confederation. This draft text, the content of which has not been disclosed, could serve as a step towards a common constitution and will be submitted to the heads of state of the three countries for adoption in the coming weeks. Having moved from full independence to a military alliance and now to an economic and monetary union, it's not unlikely a next step will be some type of political integration. Another of their self-proclaimed main goals is also to further remove European neo-colonialism and influence from West Africa, especially that of the French. Evidence of that is that after the coup in Niger, their military gave the French ambassador 48 hours to leave the country, an ultimatum refused by France which would ultimately remove their people from the country later on. It's uncertain what will happen from now on. I don't think ECOWAS will move forward with a military intervention, especially since this would mean an all-out war with three countries. And while the organization is still made up of other significant and arguably richer and more powerful members, such as Nigeria, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, Gambia, Senegal and Cape Verde, intervention and war would mean a complete destabilization of the region which wouldn't benefit them either. Having these three countries leave and be hostile is bad but enduring that hostility and making it open might make it worse. But doing nothing is also risky. If the experience goes well we can see other members of the Sahel join, especially those that also belong to the belt, such as Guinea, Chad and Sudan, which would in turn destabilize the region even further, reducing ECOWAS's power and French and Western influence even more. But what do you think? Is this a bad thing or do you like that it's happening? Let me know in the comments. Remember to subscribe if you want to catch future videos. Thanks so much to my patrons for helping in making these videos possible. Remember to support me through there if you want to access special and exclusive content. And either way, I will see you next time for more general knowledge.