Saudis and Houthis want different outcomes in Yemen war, analyst says

To Saudi Arabia, where one person has been injured in the capital of Riyadh after debris of an intercepted ballistic missile fell to the ground. Saudi authorities say the missile was launched by the Ansar al-Houthis and was destroyed before it reached its target. The Houthis say they've carried out attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities in retaliation for strikes in Yemen. The group has warned that further attacks will follow in the coming days. It does all come as a loud explosion was heard in the Yemeni capital, Sana'a. The Houthis say its fighters have captured several government soldiers and pushed the Yemeni army out of an area around the Dabab airport. The group released video they claim show the assault near the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Of course, this is a key shipping route of Yemen's southwestern coast. The Yemeni government hasn't commented on the claims. Cyril Sheehy is a professor of international history and politics at the Geneva Graduate Institute. He joins us now from Leiden in the Netherlands. And, Professor, what are you making of this to and fro? It seems like it's retribution followed by retribution, and that begets retribution. It's a never-ending circle, it would seem. Let me first say that we, as always, need to emphasize the humanitarian costs of all of this. At this point, also on the Saudi side, but principally still on the Yemeni side, Like just today in the morning, Reuters said that aid has been cut or is about to be cut to 800,000 people. So this is really, you know, very massive. Now, as to your question, right now, I think we are sort of in a situation, from what I can see, and I should say I'm not a Yemeni specialist from the regional sort of view that I have, it seems that neither side is for now strong enough to best the other. But I also do think that the two sides want something different. I think the Saudis basically would be happy to go back to the status quo until the Houthis basically are using the regional war and tension between the U.S. and Iran and more broadly to basically try to expand. So there are two really, you know, sort of, you know, separate trends here at play, as it were. So, you know, there is this sort of interplay between what's going on on the national level in Yemen and then on the regional level. So these two things, you know, interplay. And the last thing I would say is that the U.S. reaction to all of this, as I'm sure everybody knows here, is really interesting. Right. Because they are sort of trying to basically walk a balance act, you know, indirectly, you know, giving intelligence and some other support to the Saudis, but not directly intervening. That brings me to the other day. I mean, Iran came in and offered to mediate. That would seem like it was, as I put it, the fox guarding the chicken coop. Wouldn't a better mediator such as, let's say, Qatar or Oman be more salient in this environment? I think yes, because they will be seen perhaps, certainly by the Saudis and perhaps, you know, also by the Houthis as somewhere for both sides let's say more acceptable you know and negotiation you know partners right for the Houthis perhaps less but definitely you know for the Saudis but I think again I think the bigger question here is the interplay between the you know a regional conflict that then allowed a group the Houthis that ultimately have a national interest at stake, right? To piggyback on this tension and to do something that, yes, in some ways is coordinated probably or surely with Iran, but that also does not mean that the Houthis are just the Iranian puppets. So the Iranians can't simply force the Houthis to do X, Y, Z. It's not that simple. Well, that brings me on to talk about what are actually the Houthis' war aims here and what are the Saudis' war aims? Well, I think the Saudis, as I mentioned earlier, I think from what I can see, would be very happy to go back to the status quo ante, a sort of a cold, you know, non-war situation, right? Where neither side sort of attacks the other. While the Houthis, from all I can see, do want to use and have piggybacked on the regional tension and on the fact that the Saudis are on the back foot and feel surrounded on the north by, you the southwest by the Houthis sort of to exploit the Saudi weakness and the relative weakness of the pro-Saudi coalition in Yemen in order to expand basically their territory, right? So it's a little bit comparing apples and oranges, as it were, what these two basically parts want. And I think that will probably make an agreement quite hard. We should also, you know, emphasize that in the earlier rounds, the Houthis held on and out for a very, very long time, right? So I don't think from, again, what I can see, I'm not a Yemeni specialist, but from what I can see, that the Houthis have a strong backbone and a lot of patience to get done what they would like. Siris, thank you so, so much. Siris Sheikh there, our professor there at the International History and Politics at the Geneva Graduate Institute.