How the 2026 midterms will test everything we know about elections

The stakes — and uncertainty — of the 2026 midterm elections are huge. But they’ll boil down to the outcome of two main tests.

In the end, November’s House and Senate elections will revolve around two basic questions: the impact of money in politics and the willingness of a polarized electorate to change its mind. For the first time since Donald Trump came onto the scene, Republicans have a clear financial advantage in the 2026 cycle, dwarfing Democratic spending. And while that’s mitigated by Democrats’ edge in candidate fundraising, it represents a new, unpredictable force in the fight for Congress. The results will test just how much money still matters, especially in light of a second factor — the red state battlefield. This year, the path to a blue wave and, especially, a Democratic Senate majority requires voters to do something they have not done for over a decade: break with the modern trend of straight-ticket voting. The results of both tests will do more than just determine the winners of this year’s elections; they’ll go a long way towards revealing the political landscape waiting on the other side of the Trump era.