The Fed Hiked. Gold Fell. Now The Real Test Begins.

Hey, folks, welcome to verified investing dot com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here. Now, in today's video, we're going to deep dive into gold and silver. Gold has been weak over the last month, showing signs of life today as the 10 year yield pulls back. Same thing with silver. Silver triggered a head and shoulders pattern just like gold, but is pushing back above the neckline. Can it hold? Can it negate that bearish pattern? Are we on the verge of a much bigger move to the upside? We're going to dive right into the charts before we do that. Just a reminder here, guys. Gareth's top squad right here on YouTube. Ten dollars a month to get my live Q&A is where I take your questions in person or over the Internet, but live exclusive weekly videos, epic discounts at verified investing dot com and swing trade alert posts. In fact, I just put out one yesterday, one that I put out recently was a I bought puts on XLF and man, did that pay out over the last couple of days? So again, throwing a few options in there when I see a great options play, but generally swing trades on stocks, ETS, crypto and commodities. All right. So that's where it's at, guys. Right there. Sign up for ten bucks a month. And if you want, you get one of the discount codes for verified investing dot com and can utilize that. Now let's jump into the charts here. Now, in all fairness, this is exactly where it was yesterday before the Federal Reserve raised rates and was extremely hawkish. What do I mean by that? Well, just simply look at the chart. This is where we were going into the Fed decision right here. And look at where we are now. We're literally at that same point. Now, what's interesting here is you did have a technical breakdown on gold a few days ago. But if we close where we currently are, we will be back above that trend line negating that bearish pattern. Now, what was the bearish pattern? Well, I discussed it in the intro, but basically what it was was a shoulder, head and shoulder pattern. And then we broke the neckline. And again, if you've been following along with the technical analysis I do in the game plan, my live daily show at 9 a.m. on the Verified Investing YouTube, you know that we talked about how I was bearish on yields, and therefore I did think this pattern would fail. Lower interest rates. Gold tends to go higher. That's just generally how it is. Now, what's super interesting about this is that in theory, if the Fed truly is serious about getting inflation down and getting the financial system in order, that's actually kind of bearish for gold, like the whole case of gold is that eventually we're going to print to ad nauseam fiat currencies and you've got to diversify into gold. And I think this is where I need to say that even though the Fed says they're going to be fiscally responsible and getting prices under control, I don't believe that long term. All right. The way the Fed has acted over the past 15 plus years since the financial crisis and even before is that they talk a great game when the economy is hanging in there, when GDP is good. But as soon as things go haywire and we see unemployment surge, then the Fed says, all right, let's go back to quantitative easing. The government spends more money rates go, you know, basically down. And ultimately, the inflation surge and the fiat destruction is very, very good for gold. So let's talk a little bit about the short term here. So what do we have? Well, we have assuming we close back above this forty three hundred level today that negates the bearish pattern. Now, we know that this high was an easy find. I gave it to you guys weeks ago when we were trading up there. What do I mean by an easy find? We'll simply just take a trend line right here from this. You can see the sideways chop. You take that beginning portion right there. You extend it out to this low, extend it through. And literally look at this. I mean, this is just what I love about chart analysis. This beginning of the bull move here. Right. That took us to the all time high on gold. Then you had the big correction went right into that line right there. OK, then you hit it again right here. And then we finally broke through. Now, what do we know happens when price hammers on a level and breaks down? What usually happens? You go back and retrace the scene of the crime, which is exactly what we did there before it got rejected. So that's just a short answer on why we pulled back at that point. Now, what's interesting is that this trend line is now established from this side and it will and we should assume it will be resistance to the upside. So if gold surges back up, it's going to have to fight that trend line at forty eight hundred, maybe higher, depending on how far out we drag it, because it is ascending. So here we'll be at forty nine hundred by late October. So it's going up pretty quickly, which is good. Now, a couple other things to note here. So we know we have a short term resistance up there. We know gold is going to negate its bearish pattern. Is gold's low in? I would say there's a good chance of that. But obviously, as we know, there's no guarantees. And I say that mainly because I've been in too many scenarios where I thought I was like, oh, the low is in or the high is in. And then it defies gravity. Right. And so we just have to continue to watch the charts. But right now, today's price action is bullish and should put us in a bullish mode on gold in the near term. Now, if we did pull back, what would I start to look for? Well, you can see it. Right. So we just talked about how this trend line, once it broke through, went to a retrace of the scene of the crime. On the other side, if we did break down, what do we know? We know these trend lines would act as massive support, right? Former levels where we broke out above then become technical support. So that's kind of, again, that would be like the ugliest of scenarios in gold. I honestly don't anticipate. I mean, I think there's about a 20 percent chance we go to about thirty five hundred. I thought it was higher, as you guys know. Right. So it was actually my low end target price where I was going to buy more physical metal. Right. And I I have physical metal already, but that would have been the discount on the the chart that I would have wanted to see to buy actually more physical. But once you got the government and Scott percent to come in and intervene and start trying to control the yield curve, that changes the whole game. It shows a basically it shows that the government knows they have to manipulate to save the financial system. And it all it does is reinforce the need for gold as a core holding of an asset, right? It means that down the line, we all know the endgame here. The endgame is gonzo to to fiat currencies. OK, so we'll watch that. We have our upside resistance. We have downside support down here. We'll keep an eye on that as we go. Do or when do I think we're headed back to, you know, our all time highs? Well, I think what you can do is you just follow the line. I mean, basically this year, I mean, if we just drag this out, I mean, look at this. When does when does it show us? Right. So basically, by April of twenty twenty seven, we could be back to all time highs, which, again, is only about six months away, maybe seven months away at this point. And that is not that far away. And that's assuming this line continues to hold price under wraps and doesn't break above it. If it breaks above it, we could race way higher now. Remember the gold calculator at VerifiedInvesting.com? I've already created that. You guys have full access to it if you just have a free account at VerifiedInvesting.com. But that basically tells us based on the calculations that I did and had the calculator do that gold by twenty twenty nine to twenty thirty one should be at thirteen thousand dollars. So again, the mid to long term is very bullish on gold. I would say short term, I'm slightly bullish, but I still want to see more action here on the chart. I know my upside resistance. I know my downside support. I would be a buyer of physical down here. Aside from that, I'm going to just swing trade the levels like, for instance, there'll be a lot of support around forty one hundred right in here. Maybe a good swing trade at that point. Now flipping over to silver. Let's take a look at silver silver getting a move up today as well. Notice again, we had the same head and shoulders pattern right here. The neckline was right there. As of now, it looks like that will get negated as well. Same thing for silver. If silver dumps out, you have downside support around fifty dollars per ounce. That would be kind of my worst case scenario for silver. And also what we should note here is that look at this trend line that would yield a new breakout on silver. So this is the new line in the sand for me. And again, notice I'm taking my all time high at around one hundred and twenty dollars on silver, descending it to this pivot top. Notice how it kisses right here. And it's right into that. If we can break above sixty six and a half here, go a silver begins its next leg up. Short support resistance would be at seventy one. But realistically, we're headed to seventy three. Seventy even as high as seventy eight in the near term. So if you're watching for a breakout on silver, that's the line to watch. And then likewise, same thing. If this gets rejected and we start coming down, you guys know you can just extend these lines out. And essentially you get your level to watch on the downside. All right. Now, silver, just a reminder, has a little bit of a different structure to it because it's partially industrial. So right now, the U.S. economy continues to be relatively strong. So much capex spending from the A.I. players and everyone out there. So I think it's important for us to recognize that silver has a bid. But if we ever did see that slowdown, it's one of the reasons why in my personal investments, I favor gold over silver because gold is the pure play on what we all know is going to eventually happen. You know, you have to ask yourself, what are the odds that the Federal Reserve doesn't go back to QE if we get in a recession? What are the odds that the government actually gets their fiscal house in order? Probably this. So that puts us in a position to say, OK, gold is the pure play. Silver, as long as the economy stays strong and you also have the angle of of securing physical as a physical metal offsetting fiat currencies, then it works. But if you lose the industrial side, if the economy weakens, then silver could underperform in the near term. Now, one more huge announcement, guys. As you guys know, these shows and this is a new sponsor. It's so exciting. And I love this one. One of the things I want to say is that I choose sponsors that I use or that I think are amazing for a reason. So Keat has become a sponsor here. It's one of the reasons they make my show and these videos possible because I have a lot of team members behind the scenes working, finding research, doing everything for me, producing the shows and etc. And one of the things that Keat is is a end to end messaging platform and it's encrypted. And this is the beauty of it. So it's an end to end encrypted messaging platform. And you guys know with AI out there, with all these other crazy things out there and companies snooping on our personal conversations and especially with AI now that these type of platforms to me are unbelievably important for you and I. So when I'm communicating with my kids or my family, I don't want anyone else. I don't want it being stored on a server at a company somewhere. What we're talking about potentially available to AI to be hacked. I mean, that's ludicrous. So what Keat created here is this end to end encrypted messaging platform without a centralized message infrastructure. So there's no centralization. Conversations, calls are exchanged. Files are exchanged directly with participants. Never stored. And that's the beauty of it. And so, again, in a world that we are entering, that is so freaking scary with AI potentially getting a mind of its own with governments always snooping on my personal stuff. I love a sponsor like Keat. Go to Keat, K-E-A-T dot I-O dot verified or backslash or forward slash verified, excuse me. So again, you can find this in the description below or use the QR code, download it, invite a friend, start conversing or set up one for your family. But finally, listen, finally, something that is made for the people by the people. I love it. All right. So check it out. That's our sponsor, our new sponsor. And I thank Keat for being a sponsor here. All right, guys, I got to get going. Thank you so much for tuning in. I'll keep you posted on the latest in the markets and in the precious metals. Take care.