Gold & Silver Stackers Who Make This Mistake Are Setting Themselves Up For Losses!

Hello everyone welcome to bald guy money and on Wednesday September 16th the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates with a single 25 basis point hike. Now the last time the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates was back in 2022 and as a result of that hiking cycle gold price fell 22% over six months bottoming in September 2022 at $1,615 per ounce with some people suggesting that similar pullbacks to the 2022 pullbacks are in the cards now and measured from the local highs which we achieved three weeks ago would bring us to $3,660 per ounce for gold and $46.15 per ounce of silver. Now I'm not suggesting we completely dismiss this scenario but this deep pullback fear that is spreading online and amongst precious metal stackers is hardly a rule especially when U.S. bonds are in a bear market like they are now which is the precise scenario we saw play out between 1972 and 1974 where the Federal Reserve raised rates from 3.5% all the way up to 13% and gold price did a 4x moving from $44 an ounce up to $180 an ounce. So the question is which scenario are we in today and should stackers wait to buy gold and silver or maybe even consider selling out of their metals and mining stocks now to buy back at a lower price later and this video was inspired by John Green who asked me more or less that very question this past week wanting to know if it's better to wait until we get past the oil crisis before loading up on gold and silver in anticipation of what he calls the next generational bull run as I believe his thinking is higher oil prices lead to inflation which leads to more rate hikes which leads to lower metals prices and we're going to cover all of that in this video with detailed looks at gold and silver's 10-year bull cycle when it started and if it's already over how much of the pullback in precious metals is already priced into the market with a look at what the technicals are saying about pullback levels with a final message on oil why I bought oil stocks in 2025 and oil's relationship to gold and silver prices for those of you watching both markets but before we get started for those of you who are buying gold and silver right now please remember that summit metals is an a-plus rated dealer by the better business bureau their prices are fantastic and their products are authentic and if you're a seller and tired of the lowball offers from the people you usually deal with give summit metals a try call them at the number on the screen they buy at fair prices and are keen to buy almost anything you have to sell and for those of you who summit metals on whatnot please remember that their shows are still also going on there with free giveaways from time to time as well as flash sales and promo prices also happening from time to time they will be going live today at noon new york time after this video premieres so check them out on whatnot too okay jumping in for anyone paying attention to the markets this past week higher energy prices were the main driver of rising consumer prices in friday's american cpi report but you don't have to be living in the united states to be feeling this pinch because the war against iran has obviously resulted in higher energy prices everywhere a gallon of gas in poland right now is eight us dollars for those of you who have been asking me in the comments section oil prices finished the week at one hundred dollars a barrel and this has triggered the european central bank to raise interest rates this past week in an effort to keep a lid on rising prices with the federal reserve now expected to raise rates in their wednesday meeting with the cme fed watch tool giving an 88 chance of seeing a rate hike on wednesday and a 78 chance of seeing two rate hikes before the end of this year with the market as a result of all this now in a state of fear according to the fear and greed index with people worried about a repeat of 2022 where both stocks and metals came down significantly as us interest rates went up now coming back to our viewer question john and i agree on the term generational bull run for gold and silver but where i think we may disagree is that he is suggesting it may be over and we'll have to wait for a new one to trigger at some point in the future and what i've been saying here on youtube is that we are still in the middle of a major bull run for gold and silver right now just like the one we saw between 1970 and 1980 where gold and silver experienced a few big corrections before hitting their highs in january 1980 and just like the one we saw between 2001 and 2011 where metals also hit a few snags along the way in 2006 and 2008 on their way to making new highs in april 2011 with strong performance for the metals between 2004 and 2006 despite the start of a federal reserve rate hiking cycle in the summer of 2004 and we're going to come back to that in a moment but before i answer john's question directly for those of you paying attention to these cycles for precious metals you probably noticed that the last two major bull runs for gold and silver lasted about 10 years each and the biggest mistake i see people making and i see it in the comments section from time to time too is saying the bull run started in 2015 after gold bottomed out and lasted about 10 years topping out in january 2026 marking the end of the cycle and why i say that is a mistake is because as i've covered in past videos the current bull run for precious metals started here in june 2019 with this candle breaking key resistance levels coinciding with the federal reserve reversing course on rate hikes which they were executing in 2017 and 2018 which as a side note did not result in new lows for gold and silver and that means for believers in the 10-year bull cycles for precious metals who notice they follow a pattern of experiencing a small correction followed by a larger correction before they make a crescendo into the top which is the path we saw metals follow in the 1970s and 2000s again before they made their big tops that means we are likely experiencing the second larger correction right now with a top expected to happen between 2028 which is my expected date to potentially 2030 before we make a meaningful top followed by what i expect to be a short-lived but potentially steep correction with the tops for gold and silver only coming after we see a significant correction in the stock market which is what we've observed in these past cycles but have not seen in this cycle yet and may end up being triggered actually by this move up in rates which are objectively bearish for former cash rich tech companies which have overwhelmingly turned to borrowed money to fuel their ai investments but coming back to john's question should you wait for this to clear up before taking action and use falling oil prices as the best indicator of when to re-enter the market well over the short term this entire situation with energy isn't great for gold and silver we can still move lower from the friday close and i'm not here to gaslight you into believing anything else but the good news is the short term is at least partially behind us now with the market now pricing in two rate hikes by the end of the year as well as four rate hikes by june 2027 which i assume were at least partially built into prices on the thursday pullback when producer price data came in as high as it did that said what we have to keep in mind here is that these rate hikes are temporary and they are not uncommon in the middle of a metals bull market and they do not let me repeat that they do not guarantee a major move down in metals prices as the rate hikes of june 2004 to august 2006 coincided with a 59 increase in the price of gold and a 109 increase in the price of silver while the rate hikes of february 1972 to july 1974 which is an example i like a lot better because u.s bonds were in a bear market then like they are today that rate hiking cycle coincided with a 227 percent rise in the price of gold and a 219 percent rise in the price of silver and although we may still see a little more downside immediately next week in the prices of gold and silver and i'll share my pullback targets again with you all shortly if it was a guaranteed crash from here everyone would be able to make easy money by shorting precious metals right now and as many of you know there is no such thing as easy money and the market has a tendency to surprise people which is precisely why i'm urging everyone to be cautious and careful right now because what you expect to see happen may not happen at all and for my viewers who like the technical indicators and are zoomed in and laser focused on these downward moves made over the past week as well as the head and shoulders patterns for both gold and silver i get asked about it at least one time a day now on x claiming it's proof that precious metals are in for another major move down i just want to encourage you all to zoom out a bit on your charts and look at a wider time frame to show you that there is another technical pattern developing in the charts one that i've been talking about for three weeks now and that is a cup and handle pattern which is a bullish chart pattern that as you can see in the image on the right suggests the reversal from the july lows can still be continued to much higher levels in 2026 with a measured upside on gold using the method of measuring from the top of the cup as opposed to the bottom of the handle which is what some people do but i measure from the top of the cup to about five thousand four hundred dollars an ounce for gold which was the march high and is the target for gold once it breaks above four thousand eight hundred dollars an ounce with silver's target being nearly ninety dollars an ounce once it can get past seventy one dollars an ounce which lines up by the way in both cases fantastically with the figures i shared with you all in last week's video showing performance of metals in the last four months of the year since 2023 and i don't think those numbers are a coincidence now when it comes to timing the completion of this handle that we're looking for with gold returning to four thousand eight hundred dollars an ounce and silver returning to seventy one dollars an ounce as i said back on september 1st this could take two to four weeks to play out i said that in this exchange here with gary savage that we had right here on youtube and i later shared on x with us now being two weeks into the development of that pattern but please note it could potentially take a bit longer maybe into mid-october as the yemeni houthis now control a key red sea choke point which could apply more pressure both on energy prices as well as short term fear in the market expense extending the formation of the pattern and is something i don't think we should either underestimate or ignore right now so cutting out all the biases and all the noise it's clear that rate hikes are not a guaranteed death sentence for precious metals prices and that the head and shoulders pattern in the charts that everyone is sharing online and is saying is decisive proof that the metals metals are headed significantly lower is only a small part of a larger arguably more bullish setup for precious metals with the cup and handle pattern forming and i want to say that anyone not taking these things into account and saying that rate hikes are a guaranteed death sentence for precious metals prices and that we have to obey and respect the head and shoulders in the charts pointing to much lower prices for precious metals those people clearly have not taken the full set of data and information into account i bought physical gold and silver miners a few weeks ago i announced it here on youtube and those purchases are still looking good today and i have no changes to make to the pullback levels i shared with you all in earlier videos even as i leave the door open to coming in a bit below them as we saw that happen with my four thousand one hundred dollar and sixty dollar pullback targets on gold and silver earlier this year this pullback is not something to fear or sell into in my opinion it is a chance to buy a dip that i already warned you all about as i've been sharing these targets here on youtube for three weeks now and as far as i'm concerned the bottom for metals has very likely already been made and rising oil prices which question asker john was concerned about hi john if you're watching rising oil prices are not inherently bearish for gold and silver and i demonstrated that last year when i showed you all how underpriced oil was relative to gold silver and copper when i told you all i was buying oil stocks to hold as a hedge to my mining stocks and as an alternative to money market accounts and certificates of deposit as the oil stocks were paying nice dividends they still are by the way with plenty of time to collect those dividends while i would wait for higher oil prices which came a lot sooner than i was expecting by the way now some of you had a meltdown in the comments section when i said i was buying those oil stocks but so far in 2026 i've proven to be right on that because the narrative that metals and oil are inversely related is simply incorrect and anyone who has ever looked at a long-term chart of metals versus oil which you can see on the screen right now knows that's true so this isn't a time to run away from gold and silver and wait for oil to go down i still think it is a time to own both of them and to be careful not to buy too much into the bearish sentiment that is spreading everywhere online right now we are roughly 10 percent above the july lows on gold 39 percent above the july lows on the mining stocks with silver being up 18 percent versus those july lows and some people for some reason are losing their minds again because they can't control their fear and i'm not obviously referring to the person who asked the question john asked a very valid question and he asked it in a calm and polite way so i appreciate that and although two rate hikes have just been priced into the market with four rate hikes actually being priced into the market if you look out to june 2027 but the bond market is at all-time lows since the tlt etf was launched meaning all the long bonds bought in this red box here on the screen are all in a nominal loss right now the financial system likely needs a bailout if it is to continue in its current form and there is absolutely no reason to be bearish on precious metals in this environment just because prices happen to be lower than they were back in january this is not a joke this is not a drill really stay on a schedule and use the time you have now before you end up regretting it like some of you regret not buying in 2022 so that is my warning for this video and why i'm telling you all to be extra careful in this market environment as it is not exactly what it seems to many of you out there and it is not what many more in my opinion amateur financial analysts are presenting both on youtube and on x be careful do not get tricked by this and sell out of this metals market too early this is perfectly normal as i've demonstrated in this video within a 10-year metals bull market now as we finish up the video i just want to kindly ask everybody out there to leave a like for this video youtube for some reason has not been recommending me as often as it has in the past so leaving a like will let the youtube algorithm know that this content is valuable and that more people should see it so if you could please do that right now i'd really appreciate that and with that said i just want to wish you all a fantastic week ahead please remember to take care of yourselves but more importantly take care of each other that is a pillar of the bald guy money community and my message here on youtube the message is to lift people up not push people down because ultimately it's the most confident and best among us that lift people up and really in my opinion the worst that push people down so again with that all said i'm wishing you all a fantastic week ahead thank you all for tuning in have a great week goodbye