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Because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every
adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000.
I will issue a dividend.
Okay, so that was Trump speaking last night.
And as you can see, he talks about issuing dividends to every adult US citizen for $5,000.
Let's actually go through all the remarks that he made last night about quite a few different
points about this dividend. And then we'll give a bit of analysis about whether it could actually
happen, what the timescale would be, what conditions would need to be in place for this
to happen. All right, so let's keep going with his speech.
Very much like a successful company will do a cash distribution to its shareholders,
or like last year when I gave our great members of the military $1,776, remember?
Yeah, I mean, he has a point there, like a successful companies do pay dividends to their
shareholders. I think the US probably has a long way to go, though, before you could call the US
a successful company if you're comparing it to a corporation. Because last time I checked,
we have a budget deficit, all right? So we're actually bringing in less money than we're
paying out each year in our federal budget. So, you know, I like the idea. But obviously,
you know, we probably have a long way to go before you could call us successful.
The only caveat I have is that the dividend that we're making must be spent
in the United States of America.
Yeah, I mean, that's quite important, right? Because the whole point of it is to stimulate
the economy. Well, and to help people out. I remember when they did the stimulus back in
COVID times, I actually spent mine on a trip to Mexico. I guess I flew there on American Airlines.
So that's an American company. So I did actually spend some of it in the US.
But yeah, I did have a great time going to Los Cabos in Mexico.
We don't want you going to Canada to spend the money. We don't want you going to China,
to Germany. You got to spend the money in the United States of America.
I love how he picks on Canada first. And obviously, he doesn't want you to spend it in China.
If the Republicans win, if you win, we might not win. The reason the Democrats can't do that
is because they don't do tariffs. They don't take in money.
All they know is poverty and how to ruin our country. But we're making a fortune.
So if the Republicans win, you win with us and you get $5,000. It will be called
the Trump dividend. We'll call it the Trump dividend.
Kind of sounds like a bribe, maybe. I don't know. Vote for us and we'll give you five grand.
Yeah, I mean, obviously, there's quite a few points here. I've got a load of bullet points
that I made about this. And we're just going to go through them. And guys, if you're new to the
channel, my name is Ben Hedges. On this channel, I talk about credit cards, personal finance,
and luxury travel. If you like the sound of that, do subscribe. But yeah, let's actually go through
this. And I'll talk about all of the key points and how much it's going to cost, whether it's
likely to happen, who is likely to be eligible, etc. All right, let's go. Okay, so the first point
is he's proposed $5,000 payments to all adult US citizens. Now, he did try to do this before.
They talked about the Doge dividend, where they were going to give you some of the savings from
all the money that Doge was, you know, cutting from the budget. And those were going to be $2,000.
And back then, that was kind of a radical proposal as well. People were wondering how that was going
to be paid for. Doge, unfortunately, didn't save as much money as people thought it would,
at least not yet anyway. Now, moving back to these $5,000 checks, if he is actually going to do them,
the money would probably have to be authorized by Congress. Okay, remember back during the pandemic,
the stimulus checks were part of those big COVID stimulus bills that they passed through Congress.
All right, so they actually were authorized by Congress. The thing he did with the military,
the 1776, he used some other, I think it was like military housing funds or something to pay that
out. So he actually took it from money that was already in the budget and like reappropriated it.
So he did some, he did some trick, which meant he didn't have to go through Congress. But
this one at such a large scale would have to go through Congress. Let's look at the costs now.
How much would this cost? Well, he says he's going to give it to every adult US citizen.
Now the population of our country is like 340 million, I think, 340 million. But I looked
out how many citizens there are over the age of 18. It's 245 million. So you times 245 million
by 5,000, the cost would be 1.225 trillion. Okay, we'll put that number on screen with all the zeros.
So you can see how many zeros it is. It's a lot. It's a lot of zeros. All right. Now they've
proposed to fund this by tariff revenue. All right. Tariff revenue as of September this year.
So tariff revenue for the whole of 2026 as of September was sitting at 210 billion. All right.
So you can see this obviously goes far beyond tariff revenue that we're getting in this year.
However, J.D. Vance did kind of, you know, after the speech yesterday, J.D. Vance,
the vice president did kind of walk back Trump's comments saying that wealthy Americans wouldn't be
eligible. So let's say you only gave it to half of all American adults. All right. Like half of
the people were deemed too wealthy. Then, you know, tariff revenue is 210 billion as of September.
So we can guess that tariff revenue for 2026 will be about 300 billion. All right. Just maybe the
math's a little off, but about 300 billion. If you were going to give it to half of adult
Americans, that would cost 600 billion. That's two years of tariff revenue. OK, so if it was a
one off thing and you were willing to sacrifice your whole two years of tariff revenue, 26 and
27, then I guess it is doable just out of tariff revenue without taking any money from the regular,
you know, tax revenues or borrowing more money. It is kind of doable. But would this cause
inflation? Well, yeah, in theory, yes. All right. But if it's needed, it might not like remember
during covid, the first stimulus checks we had, I don't think really caused inflation because they
were actually genuinely needed. People weren't working. Right. Where was their money coming from?
They were getting money through the stimulus checks and through all the other programs.
However, the final stimulus check that happened sort of at the end of covid when I think it was
when Biden came in, he wanted to do it because it was like a signature policy. He'd just come in.
He wanted to be seen as doing something. He did one more stimulus check. I remember it well.
I mean, I was happy to receive it. Right. But yeah, it was actually probably not really needed.
A lot of people just put it in the bank accounts or they just spent it. And that one probably did
cause inflation. So a lot of those programs that kind of continued on after covid had finished
cause inflation. So if you did it now, I'm not totally sure, to be honest. In theory, yes,
it would cause inflation. But there are other factors. The U.S. credit card debt and U.S.
household debt is at historic highs right now. So there is a likelihood that a lot of people
would simply use it to pay down debt. In addition to that, if gas prices, you know,
gas prices are high right now. But if gas prices went down coinciding with these checks,
you might also have that factor working against it as well. Right. Gas prices going down,
which reduces inflation. So, you know, it's it's hard to say. But in theory, yes,
this kind of thing does cause inflation. But is it ultimately doable? Well, yes,
actually, it is ultimately doable. It requires the stars to align. But ultimately, yes, it is.
OK, so the Republicans would need to get a meaningful majority in both the House and
Senate because they would need to vote on this. And that would be you know, it would need to be
a meaningful majority, not just like 51 in the Senate. All right. Maybe like 55 or something,
because there's always going to be a few Republicans that, you know, won't vote for it.
Right. Maybe they're in like, you know, they're lucky to be there because they're in heavily
Democrat states or they just don't support things like this. OK, so there's always going to be a few
that won't vote for it. So you need a meaningful majority to actually vote for it. A majority that
supports Trump's agenda. Right. Then tariff revenue, of course, needs to continue to rise
because that's where they're saying that they're going to fund it from. And you would then need to
narrow the pool, I think, of who is eligible for it, excluding the richest Americans, maybe exclude
the richest third would probably be fair and have it taper off like, you know, if you earn more than
say, you know, I don't know, two hundred thousand dollars, then every additional thousand you earn,
you lose one hundred dollars worth of the check. It gradually tapers off. It doesn't just cut off
like that. But yeah, it is doable as of whether it will happen or not. I have no idea. I mean,
they've been talking about this for a long time. I know they do want to do it, but I really have no
idea whether it's going to happen. But hey, you know, if you vote for them in the midterms, maybe
it will. It sounds like a solid midterm strategy anyway. Right. I'm not going to be like super
hopeful on this one, guys, because we've been hopeful in the past and we've actually been wrong.
You know, I think the reason I was very hopeful in previous videos was because of the experience
from covid. Like we did actually get the checks. And then when they announced it earlier this year,
like the doge checks and everything, I was like, yeah, they did it before. So why wouldn't they do
it now? But it seems harder to do it when you don't have a major catalyst like covid. Leave a comment.
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