The Money Supply Is Exploding...Is This The Beginning Of Hyperinflation?

Wealth Wizards
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Video Summary
AI GeneratedThe speaker analyzes the record-high U.S. M2 money supply, arguing that while raw numbers appear alarming, historical percentage growth and the nature of exponential compounding suggest the current situation is not an immediate precursor to hyperinflation, especially as money supply growth remains aligned with nominal GDP growth.
M2 money supply is exploding higher.
In fact, it just hit all-time highs, growing at more than $800 billion just this year,
which has many people asking, are we headed for Argentina?
Are we headed for Turkey?
In other words, are we headed for hyperinflation?
The U.S. M2 money supply surged another $102.8 billion in July to a record $23.22 trillion,
extending its growth streak to 27 straight months.
That puts M2 up $862.7 billion in 2026 alone, and $1.43 trillion above the previous 2022
peak.
I'm going to reveal all the details and tell you how concerned about this you should be.
And oh, by the way, if we pull up a chart of gold, Bitcoin, they've gone straight up.
So are gold and Bitcoin sniffing out the problems with this massive explosion in money supply?
I'm going to explain this to you in three simple, fast steps.
Step number one, let's go over the money printing.
Money printer go brr.
That's right.
This is a chart of M2 money supply, which is basically a broad measurement of how many
currency units are in the real economy chasing goods and services.
So we go from the end of 2025 into 2026 here, go all the way back to 2000.
On the left, we go from $5 trillion up to $20 trillion.
Now, editor, I want you to actually go further back in this chart.
If we go back to the 1960s, 70s, and look at where we are today, we can see that we
have an exponential, a classic exponential growth curve.
It starts off kind of like this and right here, like that.
One thing I'd like to highlight to you on that note is you can see this bump right here.
Well, what was that?
That was the GFC.
And this is one of the key takeaways for step number one.
Why?
Well, look at this increase.
And then what I want you to do is look at this increase.
Do you see any difference?
This increase, which at the time we thought was huge, was just little teeny weeny.
And then we get to the Cervasus sickness, the next call it financial crisis.
And the response mechanism to that was for M2 money supply to literally go parabolic.
Now, it has come down, but you can see what I was referring to earlier, that now we're
starting to trend higher and higher and higher, and we're at a point now where we have surpassed
that high watermark that we saw in 2021 or 2022.
And you can tell by this chart, there's one way this is going, and that is straight up.
Buzz Lightyear to infinity and beyond, baby.
And like Milton Friedman famously said, inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.
Well, if this chart is going to Buzz Lightyear, how on earth are we going to avoid not just
epic massive inflation, but potentially even Argentina, Turkey-style hyperinflation?
And I want to remind you one more time before moving on, that just this year, we're only
nine months in for heaven's sakes, the M2 money supply has increased by over $800 billion.
Now, I want to give you some context there.
If we go all the way back to 1980, the entire money supply as measured by M2 was only $1.5
trillion.
And if you go back just a few more years to 1973, the entire M2 money supply was $800
billion.
And today, we're north of $23 trillion.
Step number two.
Now, let's look at M2 money supply growth from a little bit different angle to see if
it tells the exact same story as that unbelievable, horrifying exponential chart that we had in
step number one.
All right, so this is a chart of M2 money supply growth, but this time, it's in terms
of percentage growth.
So annual percentage growth.
And it's got inflation in here as well as the red line.
We'll go ahead and ignore the red line for right now.
Let's focus on this black line.
So where are we right now?
Well, this chart goes from July 2019 to today's date, roughly May 31st, 2026.
And we can see that right now, the money supply growth is 6.29%.
Now, that seems like a lot, especially when you look at what we did in 2021, where it
was at 22%.
At one point in time, it got up to 27%.
So those are just astronomical numbers.
But let's focus more so on today and the fact that the money supply is now over $23 trillion
at all-time highs and has grown $800 billion in just this year.
But that, again, in percentage terms, is 6.29%.
So the next question we have to ask is, where has it been throughout history?
Because if throughout history, let's just say the United States going back to the
1800s, it's normally at 1%, well, then that means 6.29 is a big problem.
And if 6.29 is a big problem, then what the hell is 27%, right?
So let's just adjust this chart slowly.
Let's go back to the year 2000, first of all, and see what's doing.
So when we go back to the year 2000, again, let's focus on the black line.
We see that throughout the 2010s, like here's random time in 2014, May 4, 2014,
the M2 money supply growth was 7.03%, actually higher than it is today.
Now, that was during QE.
Well, I know we definitely started QE because that goes all the way back to
the end of 2008 into 2009.
Let's go prior to the GFC.
And here we go, another random date here, April 15, 2007.
And again, just to make sure we're super, super clear, this precedes
quantitative easing.
We're at 6.78%.
Now, let's go back to the 1990s.
And we see right here, November 15, 1998, we're at 8.48%.
And I'd like to remind everyone that during this time, for what it's worth,
the United States government actually had a budget surplus.
I know most of you probably just fell out of your chair or had a heart attack.
So let me, whoa, time out here.
We probably lost a few of you there.
Just to restate that, in the late 1990s, the United States government
had a budget surplus, meaning they were actually bringing in more money in tax
revenue than they were spending.
If you don't believe me, editor, throw up a chart.
Or go back 30 seconds and throw up a chart that
coincides with what I am saying.
So definitely it wasn't the Fed.
Definitely it wasn't the government back then.
But now I know a lot of people right now are saying, OK, George, well,
this is fine.
But this is under a fiat standard.
This is just fiat money.
It's just money printing.
They can create it out of thin air.
We didn't have any type of constraint like we had, say, on a gold standard.
OK, it's a great point.
So let's go back to, let's say, the 1950s and look at 1950 to 1971 when
we went off of the gold standard and compare that to not only the 1990s,
but more importantly, where we are today, right around 6%.
So just going back to a random date here, we'll
call it June 30, 1968, M2 money supply growth is at 7.61%.
And I'd like to remind everyone that's when we were on a gold standard.
Now it was a little loosey-goosey.
So let's go back to the 1800s.
Let's see, I'm going all the way back in this video.
Let's go back to the late 1800s when we had a much more proper gold standard.
So picking another random date here, December 30, 1890, we're at 6.3%.
So if I just highlight this black line and we go all the way back
to the 1800s, you can see that 6% growth in the money supply
is, if anything, a little bit low compared to the average.
And I know a lot of you right about now are saying, OK, George.
Well, this is totally ignoring the elephant in the room
because we had that parabolic move during the Cervasus sickness.
And when you include that parabolic move to where we are today,
so let's just assume that you go back to 2020 and take this six-year span,
even in percentage terms, that has to be absolutely unprecedented.
And therefore, we can't just look at the percentage increase today.
We have to look at the last five or six years.
And when you do that, you can see that the money supply growth explosion
that we have seen more recently has no historical comparison.
And therefore, if we keep up this pace, we're
headed straight for Argentina, Turkey, or possibly even Weimar, Germany.
At the very least, the 1970s.
Step number three.
So is this money supply growth we have seen recently scary?
Like in step number one, where you should immediately go out and buy some gold.
If not, some whiskey and ammunition.
Or maybe not very scary at all, like step number two.
OK, let's dive into it here.
So let's go back to what we were just talking about in step number two.
And this aggregate total of the additional money supply since 2020.
So from 2020 to 2026, we have had a total increase of about 48%.
So the total amount of currency units chasing goods and
services in the United States has grown by 48% in just the last, call it six years.
So now let's go back in time and compare that six to seven year
time span with what we have seen in the United States in the past.
Not just under a fiat standard, but maybe even more importantly,
under a gold standard, 1980 to 1986.
Now I specifically use this time frame because this was a period of disinflation,
where prices were still going up, but
they are going up at a much slower rate than what we saw in the 1970s.
So right here, drum roll please, we have 73%.
So with a 73% increase in M2 in a fiat standard,
we actually saw disinflation.
And again, I'm not talking about deflation.
Those are two completely separate things.
Deflation is when prices actually go down.
Disinflation is when prices go up at a slower pace.
But if we're headed for hyperinflation,
prices aren't gonna be going up at a slower pace.
They're gonna be going up at a much, much faster pace, obviously.
The definition of hyperinflation.
So now let's go back even further, 1960 to 1966.
Now we're on a gold standard.
Here we have 58%.
So it's not as high as when we were in the 1980s here, but
it's actually higher, believe it or not, than what we've seen since 2020.
But now let's go back to when we were on a proper gold standard here
in the United States, 1880 to 1886.
Let's get another drum roll, please, 75%.
But now let's go over another chart so
we can all really get our head around what is happening.
And if this is scary, the gold, whiskey, and bullets,
or yeah, maybe not so much.
Maybe there are other reasons to own something like gold, silver, or Bitcoin.
Okay, so this is a chart from today's date going back to 1900.
On the left, we go from 200 to 1200.
What on earth is this?
This is a chart that I just created, and I created it using AI.
Editor, you can go ahead and throw up the original.
So these aren't exact numbers, I just wanted to illustrate a concept.
So let's assume for a moment that back in 1900, there were 100 ounces of gold.
Okay, obviously a lot more than that.
But just for the sake of this example, keep things super simple, 100 ounces of gold.
Now, we all know that gold increases at a rate of,
let's say, 1.5% or 2% per year.
It's done that for a long, long, long time.
So what I did is I just used 2% as an input.
So I said, okay, Mr. AI, if we start with 100 ounces of gold,
and we increase that amount by just 2% every single year,
how many ounces of gold will we have in 2026?
So we start off with 100, and in 2026, we have a little over 1,200.
And if you actually put this onto a chart, like I've done,
this blue line looks really, really,
really similar to the chart of M2 money supply.
In other words, it's an exponential growth curve.
And let me put it to you in another way that I think further illustrates the point.
So to increase the total gold supply by 100 ounces,
it took almost 40 years in this hypothetical.
But to increase the gold supply more recently,
let's just say from 2023, 2022 to 2026, it only took four years.
This is what happens in an exponential growth curve.
This is what happens when you have something that compounds
on top of itself year after year after year after year.
You get to a point where the total amount increased on an annual basis
is a mind-boggling amount compared to how much the increase
was 100 years ago on an annual basis.
Not in percentage terms, but in terms of the total amount created.
So the main takeaway here is just because you see an exponential growth curve,
like we see in M2 money supply, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's scary.
Just like I illustrated with this chart of gold.
And just to be clear,
if you had a real chart of the increase in the number of ounces of gold,
it would be an exponential growth curve just like this.
So if we can conclude that a chart of gold doing this isn't scary,
then we can also conclude that a chart of money supply growth
doing the exact same thing may not be scary either.
Or the fact that it took about 200 years of American history
to have a trillion dollars in money supply,
and just this year will probably create a trillion dollars in money supply,
isn't necessarily scary.
Just like it took 40 years to increase the gold supply by 100 ounces.
And in this hypothetical, it only took four years more recently
to increase the gold supply by the exact same amount.
Why?
Because of the miracle of compounding.
So does this mean you shouldn't be concerned at all with money supply growth?
Absolutely not.
But you've got to put things into perspective.
So let me give you an example.
If the money supply growth exceeds nominal GDP by a large amount,
so as an example, the cerveza sickness, that is alarming.
And that is what we don't want.
But if you see the money supply growth coming right along with,
let's just say nominal GDP, right now it's at 6.5%.
If you go back to step number one,
you remember the money supply growth over the last 12 months has been about 6.3%.
That is not something that should concern you.
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