Global bond SELL-OFF continues and oil prices rise amid new Iran strikes

Let's get down to business. This morning, oil prices are up and the global bond sell-off is continuing after the U.S. and Iran exchanged a new round of strikes. Here in the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since November of 2023. What does that mean? It means it's going to cost more to borrow anything. It follows a very distinct pattern where we're seeing around the world as investors are concerned about rising debt and inflation. Joining me now, Catherine Rampell, MSNOT analyst and economics editor for The Bulwark, and veteran Washington correspondent John Harwood. He's a distinguished fellow at Duke University and a columnist for Zateo on Substack. John, this is very serious, right? One of the whole points of Economic D-Day and Scott Beston's big speech last week was to say to investors, to say to the bond market, we got this thing. The war is going to be over. And that's not the case. We haven't even delivered on the Economic D-Day. We're almost publicly embarrassing ourselves. And this hot war remains hot. Steph, nobody believes the Trump administration. That's the key point. It's not that our economy is so bad. It's that in every way, Donald Trump has made it worse than it otherwise would be. He's raised the price of gas. He's raised the price of imports. He's raised the price of groceries. And he's made mortgages more expensive. That is why he's so unpopular with the American people. And in the process of doing that, he is repelling our allies and making the US government hated around the world. At the G20 meeting in Asheville, our former colleague at The New York Times, Jim Tankersley, reported that a German official said, uncertainty is the poison for economic growth. And uncertainty is the principal product of the Trump administration. Dan, I want to talk more about what Scott Besson has said, but specifically, we saw the Commerce Secretary this morning say he is not concerned about Treasury yields. And Scott Besson said, hey, our bond market is doing is the best performing among other major countries, so don't worry about it. He's right, Catherine. We are doing better than other countries, but it doesn't mean that we're in good shape. We could be facing a global economic crisis. Yeah, this is a very low bar. It is true that bond yields around the world are rising. They're rising for a combination of factors, but possibly they're also rising for some factors related to US policy. So specifically, I'm referring to the fact that this war is raising costs. It's jacking up the cost of oil, among other commodities, which effectively raises costs around the world, which is likely higher inflation is likely to lead to higher interest rates. It's also likely to lead on kind of a drag on growth. If you are planning to grow your way out of debt, as Scott Besson, our Treasury secretary, claims we will, that is a problem. Not that anybody thinks that that was a viable solution to begin with, but it certainly doesn't help the existing debt problems, the existing inflation problems, the existing growth concerns that we have already had for many months, largely due, again, to policies adopted by this administration that are hurting not just us, but as John points out, other economies around the world. But isn't he just beclowning himself, John, saying things like that? We're going to grow ourselves out of a $40 trillion deficit, right? Not mentioning all the policies that are worsening it, and we haven't even acknowledged that is immigration policy. If you want to grow, you're going to need to grow the population to do so. And what are we trying to do? Shrink the population and our labor force, John. Scott Besson beclowns himself on a regular basis. And let's consider the issue of debt. It is plainly clear that Donald Trump has no interest in dealing with the national debt in any serious way. And the Republican Congress, so long as the president isn't interested, is not interested either. So there's no prospect. He's only made that situation worse. And the thing with Besson is you could imagine a situation where you have sympathy with Besson, because he's working for a president who is out of touch with reality, who is not emotionally stable, and who simply doesn't have a strategy or principles for dealing with any issue. But the arrogance with which Besson conducts himself, taunting Canada, the other day, after this completely unnecessary and harmful, self-harmful trade war that the Trump administration has initiated, mocking them for their lack of military strengths. It is astonishing that he would conduct himself in that way. And this is, again, why the US really doesn't have allies anymore in a serious way. There's no moral commitment to the United States, because the United States isn't morally committed to any principle. But it's not just about arrogance. It's about honesty. It's about trustworthiness. John said it earlier, Catherine. It's about predictability. That's what we heard at this meeting earlier this week. And Besson is saying that the US is seeing significant global support for this economic d-day, for their effort to strangle Iran's economy. But China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, and they're not signing up for this. So if China's not signing up for this, what in the world is he talking about? That's an excellent question. The way we could have gotten together a coalition of the willing would have been to draw our allies closer against China, against other adversaries, economic or national security related. Instead, we have done exactly the inverse of that. Besides launching a trade war on China, yeah, we've done that, launching a hot war on Iran. Yeah, we've done that. We've also threatened to invade our allies, Canada, part of Denmark. We have alienated everyone economically, militarily, diplomatically, every which way. So of course, they're not going to run to our defense or say, yes, we agree, we have mutual purpose, and we are going to align ourselves with you in this economic d-day or writing the new rules of the road for trade, boxing in China. Of course, that pitch is not going to appeal to them because we have proven ourselves tremendously untrustworthy. And Trump and his cronies have essentially said he does not differentiate between China and our NATO allies, that they shaft us just as badly as our traditional economic and military adversaries do. So, yeah, no surprise there. There is one group, John, though, hold on, that the president does continue to have influence over and it's corporate America. And that is because corporate profits have been through the roof, especially in the last year. We know the president wants gas prices down. Yesterday, he met with these oil refiners. And this morning, Chevron announced their plans to double oil production in Venezuela over the next five years. Great. Even if they announced this, John, it is not going to help with prices today, tomorrow, before the midterms, or even across the next year to two years while Trump is in office. So this isn't going to impact anything. And this deal is tenuous at best. Look, Donald Trump does not at any deep, sincere level care about the level of gas prices. He cares about dealing with negative headlines that he has right now. This is a president who is entirely self-absorbed and says whatever he thinks will get him past this particular moment. And by the way, you talk about credibility of the United States government. There was a Hall of Fame projection moment at the summit in Nashville where Scott Besson said, shame on you, other countries, shame on you for the news media to put any faith or trust in a lying regime. He was talking about Iran, but he was really talking at a deeper level about the United States. Nobody thinks Donald Trump has any credibility whatsoever. And it's harmful to the United States. It's harmful to the economic well-being of our citizens. John, after he said that we are just waiting for Iran to come out with a Lego video basically saying I'm rubber, you're glue, whatever you say about me bounces off me and sticks to you. Thank you both for joining me this morning.