Should the EU Back Canada Against Trump?

Earlier this week a full-on trade war broke out between Donald Trump's America and Mark Carney's Canada. But for all the recent talk about a potential alliance of middle powers, which was clearly intended by Carney as an appeal to similarly sized European countries so much as anyone else, so far Europe's response has been fairly muted. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz privately called Carney on Monday, while an EU spokesperson avoided directly answering a question about whether the EU would stand by Carney's side, instead saying the US and Canada are both important trade partners for the European Union and we of course continue to work closely with both. We are opposed to tariffs. That said, there are reasons to think this US-Canada trade war might bring Canada and the EU closer together, with Carney telling reporters on Monday, this fall we will begin intensive discussions with the European Union, the world's second largest economy, to build a much stronger and deeper economic and security partnership. So in this video we'll take a look at the escalating US-Canada trade war, how it's pushing Canada towards the EU, and how the EU is responding. Europe is working towards an ever closer union, but member nations still have the right to veto decisions they don't like. Our new issue of the Too Long Magazine has a multi-page explainer about why the EU's veto system could be holding it back. That's just one of the articles in our longest issue ever. First, an update on the escalating US-Canada trade war. On Tuesday, Carney announced 50% reciprocal tariffs on $20 billion worth of US imports, following the implementation of Trump's 50% tariff on various Canadian goods. This came after talks between the US and Canadian governments collapsed on Friday last week, just days after Trump announced that the two countries had reached a deal, with Carney deciding to walk away from what he described as a bad deal. In response, on Monday Trump announced he would increase US tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks and auto parts from 25% to 50% as of 1 January 2027, which Canada then met with reciprocal tariffs of up to 50% on the same categories of goods. On Tuesday, Canada's finance minister, Francois-Philippe Champagne, issued a 99-page document listing around 700 American goods that will be subject to tariff rates of 15%, 25% or 50% from 8 September, including steel, dairy products, fish, household aluminium foil, dishwashers, washing machines and stoves. While there are lots of specific points of disagreement between Carney and Trump, quite a lot of the animosity seems to stem from a list of overbearing demands apparently issued by US negotiators at the last minute, which Carney described as uneconomic, unfair and undermined the net benefits to Canada, calling into question the reliability of any deal. This all provoked some relatively fiery rhetoric from the American side. Trump again referred to Carney as Governor Carney in a Truth Social post on Monday, and also lashed out at Ontario's Progressive Conservative Party Premier, Doug Ford, calling him the less charismatic, intelligent and overall unimpressive brother of the late great Rob Ford, the former Mayor of Toronto. Despite this, Canada is apparently standing firm. Ford responded to Trump's comments by saying if you think an insult from him hurts me, well bring it on buddy, I'm ready, while Carney suggested that Trump had underestimated Canada's resolve to stomach economic hardship. A 2025 YouGov Canada survey found that majorities of Canadians thought that economic retaliation, including via retaliatory tariffs or stopping sales of US liquor in Canada, would be an effective response to US tariffs. And as such, Carney's move to walk away from trade talks has drawn support from across the political spectrum, with three quarters, 76%, of Canadians apparently supportive of Carney's decision. So how might this affect Canada-EU relations, and can the EU actually respond? Well, on Monday, Carney hinted at plans to deepen Canada's trading relationship with Europe, saying this fall we will begin intensive discussions with the European Union, the world's second largest economy, to build a much stronger and deeper economic and security partnership. For context, while the US is by far Canada's largest trading partner, accounting for about 70% of Canada's total trade, the EU is in second place, accounting for 8.6% of Canadian trade in 2025. Canada-EU trade increased by 11% in 2025 compared to the previous year, with particularly strong growth, 23.4% in Canadian exports to the EU. This aligns with the vision of diversification that Carney outlined in his middle power speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he called for countries like Canada, the UK, the Gulf States and EU countries to quote, act together, because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu. At the same time, Canada has deepened cooperation with the EU in other areas too. In June 2025, the two sides signed a defence partnership. In early 2026, they coordinated a response to Trump's threats towards Greenland, and in March, Carney joined a summit of Nordic leaders, dubbed the Arctic Alliance, to discuss rising US and Russian interest in the Arctic. Interestingly, these actions, combined with Trump's aggressive posture towards both Canada and Europe, have boosted support in Canada for joining the EU. A YouGov Canada survey in 2025 found that 42% of Canadians supported joining the EU, more than the 33% who opposed it, with a majority or plurality of adults in the EU's five largest member states, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain, apparently also in favour of the idea. As such, you might expect the EU to openly back Canada's resistance to Trump's tariffs, but thus far, we haven't really seen this. This is in part because European and Canadian interests aren't perfectly aligned. The EU still depends on the US for trade and security, and will thus be reluctant to get dragged into another US-EU trade war by acting in solidarity with Canada. It's also worth noting that, obviously, Trump's tariffs are a bigger threat to Canadian businesses than to European ones, given Canadian exports to the US account for nearly a quarter of Canada's total GDP. But this also betrays a more structural issue for any hypothetical alliance of middle powers. There's a coordination problem. In other words, even if they all ultimately want the same outcome, in this case a concerted pushback against attempts at economic coercion by countries like America and China, they lack the mechanisms or ability to coordinate an effective response. There are just too many players, all with slightly different interests, which means that finding consensus takes time, if it's even possible. The contrast with America and China here is glaring. These are unified single states with incredibly centralised executives. In other words, power is concentrated in just a few hands, which puts them at a real advantage in these sorts of fast-moving trade wars. This isn't an insurmountable problem for the middle powers, but it would require more comprehensive mechanisms for collective action than you get in your bog-standard free trade deal. This is one of the big reasons that Europe's response has been so muted. Yes, it's in part because Europe has self-interested reasons to avoid further frictions with the US, but it's also because the EU, which is itself functionally an alliance of middle powers, needs time to make up its mind. And it's at least possible that, when it does, it'll be more explicitly pro-Canada. Now, with a story like this, it takes us a lot of time and research to make sure we're getting all the correct and up-to-date information possible. But in today's world, it feels like 99% of websites demand your email address just to simply visit the page to learn more. Normally, we'd be tempted to just put in our email so we can get to the information quicker, but now we know better than that. And that's because of ProtonMail. 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