Next NBA Offseason Will Be Total Chaos

The NBA somehow got stuck on ridiculous mode. Last few years, for some reason, every offseason, we get the biggest player moves ever. These are from the last three years. Luka obviously in a tier of his own, but nobody is safe. I didn't even list a fifth of the trades. So what will happen in 2027? And that includes the trade deadline, because this seems like, oh, 2027, that's a... The deadline is five months from now. And it turns out things are setting up to be insane yet again. I want to run through all the players and the scenarios. But ground zero here is Golden State, because a Warriors insider admitted the dubs are in a gap year next season. And people freaked out. Gap year when you have Steph is crazy. And a literal joke of a franchise. The GM even had to come out and respond to this. Like, I'm doing everything I can. But what does gap year even mean? It means setting up for something big. And the last franchise-changing move they made was getting Kevin Durant with Capspace in 2016. But it turns out next offseason could blow that Capspace out the water, because Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green's contracts come off the books at the same time, which is not a coincidence. With that, if guys re-sign at a discount, they could have a ton of money to spend on additional talent. For example, Steph is able to sign a two-year extension starting August 29th. He can choose to sign the max or take a pay cut to maximize the roster. So who could they get? Will potential free agents include Giannis, Nicole Jokic, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving, plus lesser guys like a Brandon Ingram. And if you think that's impossible, Kawhi is absolutely in play at this point. The man is just waiting to see what punishment the NBA hands down. And if his contract is voided, his only option is to sign with a team who has Capspace. That ain't the Raptors or the Clippers. They are locked into their young cores. So what does Kawhi choose to go like Brooklyn Nets or to a team like the Warriors? And what about Kyrie? I know he's happy in Dallas now, but how is he going to feel a year from now on a young developing squad? It turns out, according to Kalshi, the Mavs win total is like 35 wins. That's probably good for like 11th place in the West. And he's all Kumbaya right now. But losing changes minds. You could easily see Kyrie wanting to compete his last few years in the league and a team like Golden State becomes attractive. But the big fish is Nicole Jokic. And normally you see Joker's name as a free agent and you don't even blink. Like, of course, he'll resign. Man even said so himself. He's only waiting until free agency to sign the biggest deal in NBA history, which would be five years, 359.5 million bucks, which takes his NBA earnings to a cool 724 million lifetime. Three quarters of a billion. But the way Denver is going, people are starting to wonder if Jokic cares about winning at all, then should Nuggets fans be worried? The reason is the Joker Nuggets have slowly become the Giannis Bucks. The Bucks got worse and worse after winning their title. Nuggets just lost in the first round. Check. A stupid expensive roster, but not stupid talented. Check. No tradable first round picks the next seven years. Check. And without some crazy trade, no path to improving. The Bucks did this over and over with like Damian Lillard, Miles Turner. Nuggets might have to do that soon. So the Nuggets are becoming the Bucks, which Giannis had to leave. Despite being loyal, what is Jokic going to stay? And even if he does stay and signs that record contract, the Nuggets fans can probably kiss the ability to win goodbye in the pay cut era. But speaking of pay cuts, a crazy story to watch for next year. Some NBA stars are going to be under a lot of pressure to take less money. And how will they react to that? It could be bad because a cheat code in the second apron era is for your star to take a pay cut. That way the front office has more money to allocate to the other players and create depth. So recently we've seen Jalen Brunson take a discount and Victor Wimbunyama. Oh, those are team first guys. And both in the finals, by the way, front office are going to point to them and be like, you don't want us to compete like Wimby? What are you better than him? So the two big stars under pressure first. Anthony Edwards. If he makes all NBA, which he will if healthy, he's eligible to sign for four years, 301 million bucks. That's about 75 million a year more than any current NBA player. And yeah, he scores 29 a game. One of the most marketable guys in the league. But there will be so much pressure on him to take less money. And same with Tyrese Maxey. Only with all NBA next year, he could sign five years, 389 million. So what's going to happen when one of these guys says, no, I will not sign for less. How will that play out? Is the team going to push back or will they cave? Will there be bad blood either way? It is a really interesting spot and something to watch. Also, there are always player moves that we didn't see coming, but we probably should. For example, what about all these crazy experiments NBA teams are about to run? Lamella Ball in Minnesota, Ja Morant in Portland. We never know what's about to blow up that will create a major move. Like LeBron in Philly. Man is on a short two-year timeline. You know, if anything goes wrong, he's going to freak out. Like Joel Embiid. If the big man is just sitting on the bench all season, you know Embiid for AD rumors are going to explode. But a huge event every offseason is the NBA draft. And we've all heard the hype for this draft sucks. The 2027 class is weak, but that's false. Look at it like this. The draft is not going to be strong at the top, but could be one of the deepest classes ever. But why do they say weak? Because everyone always cares about who's going to go number one. And right now there are five guys competing for that top spot. They are Tyron Stokes at Kansas, Jordan Smith Jr. from Arkansas, Caleb Holt from Arizona, Cameron Williams at Duke, and Bruce Branch at BYU. But how weak are these number one guys? Well, a good measure is where would the top 2027 guy be taken if he was in a strong draft class? Like the Zachary Regiche test. Regiche went number one in 2024. But if he was in this last draft, he'd be like 10th. So what about 2027? Well, the top guy right now is Tyron Stokes, who is a strong athletic 6'7 wing. Number one for good reason. But compared to recent high picks like AJ DeBonta, Darren Peterson, or Cooper Flagg in 2025, Stokes seen as a borderline top five pick. Not ideal. But remember, if anyone says the draft is weak, no, it's deep. And the reason is there is a record number of guys who are staying in school because of NIL money. So we're going to end up getting a ton of high level role players in this draft. And maybe somebody surprises us and becomes a superstar, a la Giannis or Kawhi or Nikola Jokic. But speaking of a great draft class, maybe the best draft class of all time had an all-time mistake in it. I made a list of the top 10 worst mistakes in NBA history, and actually two of them include having a high pick in an all-time draft and completely blowing it. That happened twice, and those teams almost never recover.