Typhoon Threat getting even Higher...

It's Sunday, the 16th of August, 2026. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields. The typhoon threat is getting higher, and I don't mean that in a scary way. I do this channel to keep you prepared so we could kind of stay ahead of systems. I am still seeing this area developing, and now the models are all latching onto this. This is the area we talked about in the last video, right? The area that I was concerned about, and now we're starting to see the models really picking up on this. The American model, the European, Canadian all have this area somewhere in here building back through Micronesia, developing eventually into a typhoon. Even the Icon German model now has it as a tropical storm. Now where exactly it goes, again it hasn't even developed yet, that's obviously going to be a question mark. So let's kind of begin with that and go over a couple scenarios. This here is the GFS model, but it's rather similar to the other models, and there's going to be a lot of differences at this point because it hasn't developed yet. By the way, I want to show you some of the rain extremes back toward the Philippines. We'll swing back toward India as well in just a moment, but let's go here out in time. Let me take the clock forward. Here's Chuuk, and you could see this area starting to develop on Wednesday. Wednesday is kind of the critical day for some development out of this area. Here's Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan. So this area starts to develop on Wednesday, and then it will start to work either to the northwest or west-northwest. Now of course, we've had major systems rolling through the last few months over toward the Mariana Islands. So again, I don't mean this in a scary way. I want us kind of prepared for what may be next. Now what may be next is a whole lot of nothing. I do believe, I'll tell you what I know and what I don't know, I do believe this area develops into a strong tropical storm or a typhoon. Where it exactly goes, I am not sure yet, right? I always want to keep it in perspective. There are some models that kind of lift this to the north of the northern Mariana Islands and keep it away. That's some good news, right? There's others that kind of take this area maybe across parts of the Mariana Islands and then back toward the Philippine Sea. That is the uncertainty, and I trust your judgment. You've been hanging with me, thousands of new subscribers on this channel. Again, we've got an area to watch, and that's what we're going to be doing. So here's another model. This is the FMV3, which is a rather reliable model for kind of the genesis of systems, picking out where systems may develop. There are a few areas, we'll cover this in a moment, that we're watching your time on. For example, just all of this rain back toward Luzon, we'll zoom down in a moment. But this is the spot we're watching. I mentioned Wednesday, the FMV3. This is one model, but it's a version of the model. So you get a lot of different kind of outputs as you put different variables into the computer. But you can see right through here, it is picking up on something trying to develop. And then this model, and it shows the uncertainty. Maybe it moves to the north of the Mariana Islands or works its way back toward the west. But this model is having this area develop as well into a tropical storm and most likely a typhoon. So there's another model doing the same thing. And we'll talk about the environment in just a second. Here's a version of the European model, picking out where tropical depression may form. Of course, we have several kind of spin-ups, if you will, this time of year, tropical depressions, weaker tropical storms. But it's this pocket in through here, right through here, that is of high concern. So this European model seeing that, and it is even saying, hey, this has a chance at this point of becoming a typhoon. This is a little bit down the road, but it's showing that brighter coloring now, a 40, maybe 50% chance of this becoming a typhoon according to the European model. Another thing, not only am I a little uncertain exactly where it may go, which makes sense at this point, I mentioned I do believe it will develop, but how quickly it develops. That'll be something we'll have to watch too. Maybe it rolls closer to the Mariana Islands as a weaker system and then develops after, maybe it's before. So the timing on that will also be critical, not only the track. But this model has it a little bit more to the north of, say, Tinian and Saipan, other models bringing something a bit closer to Guam, even over toward maybe potentially Yap as we get down the road. Now, looking at the environment, we know the water temperatures are warm, but this season in particular, the ocean heat content is very high, right? That means the warm water is not just at the surface, but it's way down below. So as the system passes by, it doesn't just churn up cool water, it churns up more warm water. And the warm water is what, of course, feeds these systems. And that's why we've seen so many systems rapidly intensify. So I've got you covered here. If you are subscribed, I'll put out the new updates for you and you'll get those notifications. But I do appreciate you sharing the word about this, not in a scary fashion, just, hey, drop this in group chat, share with your friends and family. There's a system out there, a lot of uncertainty we know, but it's a spot that I am concerned about and that we'll be watching as we work our way forward. Speaking of watching things, big areas of rain, seven-day precipitation anomaly. This means where we're going to be wetter, where we're going to be drier, where we have the blues, much wetter than average, back toward especially Luzon, where we'll have some of those totals 50 to about 125 millimeters above average for rainfall just over the next few days. And look over the next 30 days. I mentioned some of the rain extremes, not only the high chance of seeing above average rain back toward Luzon in particular and parts of Visayas, but we get toward Mindanao, that's where we're going to see below average rain. And this will be something I'll be tracking for us in the Philippines. I know we're highlighting a lot of entities out there, highlight the rain as is good. And I've been tracking the flooding with you across the Philippines, but also concerned about where we have the below average rain. Watching that really subdued to the south toward Davao, very much in the way of below average rain. And all of this blue here, watching Laos, mentioned northern Vietnam before, parts of Cambodia, above average rain over the next 30 days. We expect it to be wet in spots, but running significantly above average. Now, I mentioned that area we're watching out toward Guam kind of building as we work our way forward, but let's get through the Philippines. There's the rain. What's going to happen is a little bit of a change though as we work our way from today into tomorrow. You see tomorrow or Monday, some of the rain getting toward parts of Visayas right through here. Still really heavy, extreme rain amounts we're going to be seeing, but it creeps a little bit more to the south, but it still doesn't get toward Mindanao. This here on Wednesday, and even going into Thursday, backs off a little bit, but still loose on across the NCR. Significant rain totals we'll see, and then mainly dry as we work our way down through Mindanao going forward. Now, here's the bigger picture to keep everyone covered. There's been a couple of these spins out there. Sometimes the government classifies something that maybe shouldn't be classified, but you get these little tropical storms out there. There's the big pockets of rain we're watching. We've seen some of the rain up toward Korea, but let's go through the week. This here is, by the time we get into Thursday, of course, all eyes on this area. What does it do? How quickly it develops? Where does it go? But a high chance of that developing. This flow kind of up and around still back toward maybe Okinawa, Naha, seeing some additional moisture. Of course, here's that pocket. We'll see if anything kind of spins up in this area just with this increased flow, that monsoon flow. We may get something kind of spinning up and lifting up to the north or back toward the west. So, we work our way back here. Big pockets of rain. Bangladesh back toward Myanmar. By the way, the earthquake activity, Indonesia, thinking of you, of course, not only the massive recent earthquake, but a lot in the way of those aftershocks. Now, rain. Watching that, you see it here kind of building. Meanwhile, Bangladesh swinging back toward India. You see those heavier pockets this here on Tuesday. So, let me know if you're catching any of the rain. As far as tropical development goes, not really seeing that. Most of it kind of up and around, not really sitting over the Bay of Bengal. I'll watch out for any signs of tropical development, of course, as we work our way back through South Asia as we go forward. And we'll cover those rain totals in just a moment in different spots, which we're about to do. Let me zoom down and let's just get to that. Let's zoom down here. And you can see the big difference to about mainly dry, maybe 10, 25 millimeters of rain. We swing to the north, almost off the charts, upwards of 250 to 300 parts of Luzon. This just over the next three days. So, through today, tomorrow, in through Tuesday for those rain totals. Back through the Mariana Islands, watching out for some scattered areas of rain. Best chance, Rota, South Guam. We could get a few spots of about three to four inches of rain, or maybe 75 to 100 millimeters of rain. That will be a potential. But all eyes on this developing tropical system as we get into the upcoming week. And again, thank you for sharing this info. Mentioned Laos, some of the rain. Vietnam, mainly northern areas, better chance of the rain. Thailand as well, northern sections getting the rain. Taiwan, of course, where we get some, the winds hitting some of the terrain. We could pop up some of those showers, some spots over 100 millimeters of rain. Southeastern provinces of China, high rain totals. Right in and around Hong Kong, some of the totals upwards of about 150. And you see that rain back towards South Korea, even North Korea. There's that surge of moisture. The larger islands of Japan, not as much rain. Shikoku, along the coast, southern coast, we could see some spots over about 50 millimeters. But there's that rain. Meanwhile, I mentioned Bangladesh. Not leaving out Nepal and Bhutan, where we'll get those downpours. But back through central India, some of the spots, 150 to about 200. That's why we're tracking that just a couple minutes ago. So active pattern, of course, typhoon chances, they are getting higher. And I'll be fine-tuning exactly where that is eventually going to go. We're watching closely near Guam and the northern Mariana Islands. Flooding rain in parts of the Philippines, extending a little bit to the south, moving a little more toward a Visayas the next few days. But again, Mindanao, mainly dry and watching other areas of the widespread rain. So let me know how you're doing over the next couple of days. I'll be kind of doing the worrying behind the scenes as I track this, what could become the next significant area to watch, the next typhoon developing. Got you covered here on Mr. Weatherman Asia. Have a good day ahead.