How climate change is teaming up with 'Super El Niño' | DW News

This year has been a year of heat waves, wildfires, and extreme weather across the globe. It's not the hottest year on record so far, that was 2024. But climate scientists say 2026 could still take that ominous title. That's because it's an El Niño year. Some have even called it a Super El Niño year. We'll get into that in a second. First we asked Zach Wave, a researcher at Climate Central, what climate forecasters mean by El Niño. So what that refers to is it's this oscillation of ocean waters, the temperature of ocean waters in the central tropical Pacific Ocean. Okay, that sounds a bit dry, but an El Niño is anything but. He's talking about an irregular warming of the waters here in the Pacific Ocean. That's extra heat that can turbocharge global weather, making the extremes even more extreme. And so what El Niño does is it can add a temporary boost to those temperatures to make them even warmer than they would be. Warmer waters doesn't sound too bad at first glance, but the data shows this is the longest stretch of consistently high ocean temperatures since records began. And that's threatening to tip the delicate climate balance we depend on. These extreme temperatures in the ocean are affecting many bases in terms of marine heat waves we're seeing across parts of off the coast of Western Europe, stretching across much of the Pacific Ocean, across parts of the other parts of the Atlantic. So this year in particular, I think the ocean warmth is a really key story. And as El Niño starts to unfold more and more, and we're already seeing it quite impressive, I think the story about the ocean's impacts will continue to be a top climate story for the rest of this year. But what does that mean in concrete terms? What's the connection between ocean temperatures and extreme weather? There's a couple different ways that the ocean temperatures affect extreme weather. One can actually be a local effect. And what that means is for coastal communities, so you can have really warm ocean temperatures right off the coast. And for areas along the shore, that can actually boost humidity levels. So that can increase heat stress during the day, and that can also lead to warmer nights. So when you have these higher humidity conditions associated with those warmer ocean waters, the temperature doesn't drop as much at night. And during potential areas of extreme heat, that can be really dangerous because our body often relies on temperatures to cool down at night so we can rest, and there can be reduced heat stress. So this tendency for warmer nights is very much a heat health hazard. But it's not just the physical stress of hot nights and hotter days that has observers worried. The excess heat is creating so-called heat domes. And if you've seen the horrendous fires that have been lashing Southern Europe this year, you know the damage a heat dome is capable of inflicting. Warmer ocean waters can also affect changes in extreme weather patterns. So it can reinforce certain types of weather patterns to occur like those heat domes. This is more of a new area of research that we're trying to understand the linkages between these warmer ocean waters and how that might affect these types of really persistent weather patterns like we've been seeing during the summer. And that can be particularly dangerous if you have a hurricane that's approaching land, it goes over these warmer ocean waters. And when the conditions in the environment are favorable, then it can really intensify even faster right before landfall, giving communities less time to prepare. The already record-breaking warm waters of the world's oceans are likely to get supercharged by this year's El Nino, which only really kicks in in the winter. But the strange thing about this climate event is that it brings different extreme weather to different parts of the globe. Some of these linkages that are a bit more clear between El Nino and regional climate, one of those is across the western United States, where there's a tendency during El Nino years for wetter than average conditions. And sometimes in years that can actually lead to flooding in parts of like California up into Oregon due to atmospheric rivers. Other connections we'll be keeping an eye on is over the Amazon in potentially more drought conditions that are favorable during certain El Nino years. Other areas include Southeast Asia. That's a region that has a tendency for more heat extremes and especially drier than average conditions. So that can lead to areas of drought or more potential for wildfires to grow. So these are just a few of the linkages that El Nino has the tendency to more affect those regions. But again, every El Nino is different, and every El Nino has its own sort of character and intensity associated with it. So we will have to wait and see what this year has to unfold. And of course, there's the most extreme consequence of the climate crisis, the wildfires that are raging from Canada to France, Spain, Greece, and even Siberia. We're definitely seeing conditions become more prevalent for wildfire growth. When those wildfires ignite, that means that the environmental conditions are even more favorable for it to become more intense or more spread into larger areas. And it's really part of this idea that with a warming world, the atmosphere can hold more moisture. And so what that does to this land surface is that tries to pull all of that moisture out of the soils and vegetation and crops into the atmosphere. So that leads to an enhanced drying of the vegetation, of the soils. That combined with some of these extreme heat conditions, the dryness, the hot temperatures all make those wildfire conditions, the fire weather, as we call it, more favorable for growth. And it's really part of this long-term trend. One of these factors, especially in areas that have this long-term trend towards less precipitation are more likely to see the conditions be favorable for wildfires going forward into the future in a warmer world. So is 2026 going to break the record for the hottest year ever? 2026 is going to be close. And I can't give an answer today whether it's going to break the new global temperature record, but it's certainly going to rank within the top five and maybe top three warmest years on record. And for me as a climate scientist, I'm really interested in that long-term trend, which is due to, again, human-caused climate change. And so this year will rank very high and very consistent with that trend. I think what's a bit more clear is actually looking into 2027. So there's a tendency for El Nino's connection to global temperature to be even stronger and more clear several months later. So especially getting into late 2026 into early 2027 is where we're really going to likely see global temperatures rise even more due to that extra boost from El Nino. So I think 2027 has a higher chance of breaking the new all-time warmest year on record. What's clear is the world is growing warmer year by year, and science points the finger at man-made climate change. But with humans pumping an estimated 100 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every day, I asked Zach Laib if he has any hope we can avert catastrophe. I think we're definitely seeing signs for optimism that already that there have been steps taken place to reduce overall global carbon emissions are lower than we might have expected otherwise had we not taken these steps to renewable energy. And I think looking at just the prevalence, growing prevalence of solutions from wind, from solar and other solutions are really showing strong steps that there are some actions being taken place around the world and especially at the local level. I really encourage people to look at all the steps that are going on in their community. How can they get involved? They learn more about local community action towards climate resilience and climate solutions. And I think there's many optimistic and really wonderful stories happening at that local level. Some activists have put it this way. 2026 might be the hottest year on record, but it might also be the coolest year we'll experience for the rest of our lives. That is, unless we finally do something to reverse climate change for good. I'm Ami Anisif in Berlin. Thanks for watching.