Oscar Piastri's Choice Is FINALLY Tested

Oh, it's that time of year again, folks! But why does it land differently this time? Because 2026 has not exactly been that happy of an anniversary. I mean, Oscar was aware of it. I mean, he even said thanks for all the anniversary messages. Nearly 3 million people saw that and the internet treated it like a holiday, and why not? It was four years since that most infamous tweet in modern F1, when a 21-year-old reserve driver looked at the team that raised him and said publicly, I would not be driving for them next year. I mean, it was the absolute feather in the cap to that 2022 silly season. We had Sebastian Vettel retiring, Fernando replacing him at Aston Martin, and then that. And it sent Piastri to McLaren, where he went on to take nine Grand Prix wins, 28 podiums as of this recording, and he has been able to contribute to back-to-back Constructors' Championships. You could certainly say it's a lot more colourful of a career than it would have been had he remained in blue and pink. But this time around, this celebration has arrived at a time when we're asking a lot more questions regarding Oscar's career, which have nothing to do regarding that particular decision. Because I'm not going to be saying, oh, has he chosen the right team or not? Because he, of course, obviously has chosen the right team. It's perhaps maybe to do with what Oscar is as a driver, and whether or not it can actually sustain itself during this current regulation cycles where it could make or break his career. But let's start with the obvious. Had Piastri remained at Alpine, his ceiling would have been the occasional podium, a P3 at best. Leading a championship? Ha! Alpine spent 2023 to 2025 sliding from sixth to dead last. Even their recovery this year has fallen a little flat, with them also being in sixth place. That with a new Mercedes engine to boot, and they're nowhere near a title fight, and they're currently having legit counters from the second Red Bull team. Meanwhile, at McLaren, Piastri was able to win his first Grand Prix win in only his second season with the team. And after that, he went on to win eight more. And then we got to the peak of his powers at the Dutch Grand Prix last year, where he went from pole to the chequered flag, and really cemented his championship lead to 34 points. Now, in many championship scenarios, a 34-point lead is a margin that most drivers never blow. But as we know, Oscar Piastri blew it. And that really pains me to say that, considering he's my boy. And I know that many of you want me to just point to Monza and call it a day, and just say, Oh, there was a conspiracy going on here! But as many regular fans of my content know, I am now basically forbidden to talk about that, because, well, you know, you're sick and tired to your back teeth about me talking about it. So I'm going to limit it to now. But 2025 does need to be considered in some shape or form, because his title unraveled across nine Grand Prix. It was a slow-motion train wreck. Crash.net's post-season breakdown in particular counted 47 points lost through individual mistakes. A first-lap crash in Baku. A driving standard penalty at Silverstone that cost him the win. Four consecutive races outside the podium places. And let's not forget the double disqualification of McLaren around the likes of Las Vegas. And then, of course, the really bizarre situation with strategy around Qatar. And then it ultimately meant that he finished Oscar 13 points behind Lando Norris, third in the championship. And this is the guy who was actually leading the championship for the longest period throughout 2025, and he wasn't even the runner-up. I mean, it was still a strong year, because Lando and Oscar had the same amount of Grand Prix victories that year, but it did all fall apart. I mean, McLaren's internal dynamics did make it worse, in my opinion, but because it was so determined to make sure that no one driver had a perceived favoritism gambit, that it meant that it compromised them in terms of strategy. And it meant that some calls that should have been easy to make became hard to make. And then Hungary this year. We saw a really bad bit of heartburn regarding it. We thought, oh no, here it comes. Once McLaren's fast again, papaya rules will run amok. And no matter what you say, team orders did play its part in Monza and Singapore. That plus the pressure of racing your own teammate for a championship inside the same garage, something Piastra later described in the High Performance podcast as a double-edged sword, that McLaren ecosystem's provided plenty of silverware, yeah, and prestige, but it also created the conditions for the most painful championship collapse since 2007. And when he arrived at pre-season testing in Bahrain this year, Piastri came into it with a fairly reasonable take on things, as in, he had nothing left to prove in that he could lead a championship, he could win multiple races. What else was there left to do? Well, 2026 is proving otherwise. I mean, it didn't start off this way though, because for the first few races, it was looking very clear that Piastri had the edge over Norris in terms of adapting to these cars. Norris was very much struggling, and then of course had wave after wave of technical absolute disasters. In fact, motorsport.com's comparison after three weekends back in April placed Piastri 0.14 seconds ahead in qualifying, and a quarter of a second per race lap. Yeah, the sample was tiny, and both McLarens had suffered disruptive technical trouble, especially in China, but the early conclusion was not that Piastri had been exposed, but Lando just looked less comfortable with this new generation of cars. I mean, we of course heard Lando mulling over a possibility of maybe retiring from the sport entirely if he wasn't enjoying it anymore. Now fast forward to the summer break, we hear nothing of the sort from Lando, do we? And according to those fabled head-to-heads, we have seen an absolute tour de force from Lando in redressing the balance, in that, in pretty much all of them now, Lando is ahead, except for the race head-to-heads. Piastri did have the early lead, he was leading 4-2 in qualifying by the time we got to the Monaco Grand Prix, but then Lando went on a tear for the next five races to make it 7-4. And yeah, the gaps on screen are not a clean staircase, but the direction is consistent, and it tells you something. Norris must have found a repeatable answer to these cars faster, especially in qualifying, alongside McLaren's incremental understanding of the regulations. And thanks to their upgrades, which really peaked around Hungary. Early familiarity did not become lasting superiority, as we've seen here. Something has changed. And team boss Andrea Stella named part of it. Speaking to the media, he said Piastri was, quote, still getting in tune with these 2026 cars, low-grip cars. In a wider assessment reported across other outlets, he was even blunter. Quote, if you just try to drive too clean, the lap time does not come. He added that the more aggressive approach came more naturally to Norris. That phrase deserves plenty of unpacking, because we've got to remember who Andrea Stella is. He is no Zach Brown. He was a race engineer back in his day. Not only to the likes of Fernando Alonso, so he has been through hell and back over the years, coming with Fernando from Ferrari to McLaren, but also was very much au fait with the works of a Michael Schumacher. When he talks about something being too clean, he's talking about something specific to do with the art of aggression. When you look at those two drivers, Lando and Oscar, you can easily tell who is the smoother of the two. And it's becoming more and more obvious that these 2026 cars reward drivers who are a little bit more keen to hustle it. As in, commit more into the corner. As in, you know, really grab it behind the horns and really, really wrench it into some kind of form of submission. As in, it's not got that downforce. You've really got to get yourself out there to try and extract every single tenth as possible, especially against something like the Mercedes. I mean, when it's not breaking down or anything, or the pit crew are messing things up. And it will help if the driver is willing to accept that the car is going to be skidding around sometimes in and out of the corner. In short, you've got to trade precision for commitment. And Norris seems to be slowly getting himself into that groove, especially in a one-lap format. Piastri, by contrast, said himself earlier this year that this year requires unlearning everything he'd learned in 15 years of racing. His Australian Grand Prix showed how literal that was. He crashed on the way to the grid, the car delivering 100 kilowatts more power than it had earlier that weekend as he went over a kerb, and he then hit the wall. Several variables aligning at once. Now, okay, I know you're going to be getting the foams of doubt out and saying, Lor, you can't just point to that one incident and saying that's a season-long weakness. No, you're absolutely right. But what that does show you is that adaptation is very important and that you can't just simply say, oh, if you want to try and get some extra power out of that car, just brake harder because hybrid, ha. Because it is a very popular concept to say that all you've got to do in these cars is just brake that little bit harder to generate more electricity, as that's the only way you can generate power other than, you know, fuel and what have you. Well, it's becoming very, very clear that these cars are overwhelmingly complex and that there are more means to generate power into the electric motor than just, you know, getting your left foot down. Besides, it's just too tidy for an explainer anyway. These cars also recover energy through partial throttle application, lifting off and even at full throttle near the end of a straight. Drivers can also manually influence lift-off regeneration too, though at the cost of ending straight-line mode. It's a balancing act. It's not a single barrier. And the regulations have been a moving target too because from Miami onwards, we had plenty of tweaks coming out the FIA, including the maximum permitted recharge. Officials wanted less excessive harvesting and more consistent flat-out driving, as did the drivers, especially Leclerc. So, it's quite safe to say that the regulations have changed considerably since the start of the season, and it's indicative that Piastri is still trying to find his feet right now. And we are also going to be seeing further changes going into 2027 and 2028. And, maybe for another video, the FIA's own single-seater director, Nicolas Tombas, is pointing out that we could have had all of these changes going into 2026, but the manufacturers said no. We could have saved ourselves so much grief. And I'm more inclined to believe the FIA talking about this than Stefano Domenicali, because, you know, technical side of things? Yeah, the FIA is very much aware of this. I think it's quite safe to say that the governing body of Formula One has the best interests of the sport more than the commercial side. And in terms of an energy landscape, Monaco really complicates things, and that was the last race where you could safely say that perhaps Oscar has the edge over Lando, because, well, we've got to remember that Monaco Grand Prix had no active aero, and it also did not see any superclearing of the sort, which meant that we saw a Monaco Grand Prix that was actually more interesting than the one that preceded it. And Piastri did beat Norris in qualifying, but that was the last time he beat him in qualifying. To this date, he has not been able to do that ever since, and the gap's only growing, as I showed you earlier. But excessive harvesting can't be the main explainer for the gap, when the one race that reduced its importance was also the last time Piastri had the edge. So my best read, based on Stella's description, his team boss, is that too clean concerns timing as much as raw aggression. The car has to be allowed to slide, with the driver staying extremely active throughout. You've basically got to be on it throughout the entire lap. And then maybe a narrow operating window could punish the driver as well, who needs more time to build confidence. Piastri telling Motorsport Week after Silverstone that the car could hide its problems when grip was consistent, quote, whereas in qualifying, the conditions were very tough and there is nowhere to hide. That's the problem in one sentence. One lap oomph. But if you're really trying to find a simple reason as to why we are in the situation right now, it might be down primarily to the fact that McLaren built a fundamentally flawed car. And Stella himself admitted also that the aerodynamic philosophy did definitely need redirecting. Which basically tells us that the car's philosophy was wrong from the start. And that is exactly what we saw in 2022. And look how they were able to turn that around. And you also got to consider on top of that, their understanding and their relationship with their supplier's Mercedes. It being rocked the hardest since they reunited back in 2021. It's quite safe to say that they were thrown for a loop for the first few races in understanding the Mercedes power unit, as was really seeing for themselves the technical limitations and the absolute fragility of especially the control unit of Norris's car. Because he was on the bubble for a 10 place grid drop ever since Japan. Spa being the time Which to be fair is probably one of the better races, if not the best race to do said plug pulling. And as a result of all of that, the car as well as the power unit, it means that both drivers are well behind the Ferraris and well behind the Mercedes and the constructors. And as for Norris, he is close to 100 points behind Antonelli in the championship. Although the gap is closing slowly but surely. Hungry being one way he could whack off 10 points. And now Norris is only 10 points behind Leclerc. And not that far off of George Russell. So when you go back to the context of qualifying gaps being quite short, there was only about a 10th between Norris and Piastri. So a seven year veteran being that far ahead, that small margin between somebody who has that little bit less experience, it's not exactly the end of all worlds for the Australian. I am not calling this a crisis, but it certainly does not explain the trajectory that we are seeing, where the gap originally was quite small, but come hungry, it was near half a second. If the car equally disadvantages both drivers, the qualifying gap should scatter randomly. Instead, it's reverse direction from Piastri having the advantage to Norris having the advantage. And now the Australian is consistently behind. That's an adaptation signal if you ask me, as these cars have begun to rapidly develop. Things looked better for Oscar when these cars were absolute greenhorns, as well as the concept. And you really need to separate Saturday from Sunday to try and explain this more, because this becomes a harder problem to solve. In Grand Prix, where both McLarens finished, Piastri has led the head to head six to five. He can still race this car. Hungry proved it. He started third, passed Charles Leclerc, and then cut back underneath Norris at turn two, the Hamilton corner, to take the lead. And he stayed there through the first half of the race, despite Norris showing marginally stronger pace behind him. And it also looked like we were about to have another uncomfortable tug of war over the radio about Norris lamenting the fact that papaya rules were becoming a thing, since Piastri had track position. I was just thinking, oh no, we're just going to see another PR disaster as we saw two years ago, didn't we? And surely Lando would have known about papaya rules. But thankfully, we were spared that, as well as the McLaren pit wall being spared all of that, when Carlos Sainz came into the picture, as we explained last week, and did what he did with Piastri and him losing time. And then Norris benefiting from that in being able to fully pull off the overcut, which was a bit of a tall order, the undercut really working around the Hungaroring. So you could say throughout all of that, it made Lando look the hero. And then the gap between Piastri and Lando became 12 seconds or so, due to the resulting collision, as well as the tire offset. And then of course, the gearbox failure rubbed salt into the wound as well. So you could say maybe some of that gap was down to the fact that Piastri's gearbox was starting to fail. That's all very well and good, but none of that erased the qualifying deficit. But it did show us something important, because qualifying demands an absolutely perfect lap. If you have a gap of one tenth of a second, that can these days make the difference between first and third. And especially last year, it could make the difference between first and sixth on some occasions. You cannot leave things on the table. You cannot be conservative when it comes to these things. You have to go all out. Whereas in the race, you have a little bit more time to be more experimental, a little bit more flexible. You've got repeated laps. You can have 50, 60, 70, what have you, to try and get your eye in, as well as you may be on being a slightly different strategy. Your tyres being in slightly different working operations and temperatures and conditions, as well as all the other stuff that's going on around you and who you're trying to weave your way through in terms of backmarkers. Carlos. And all of that can mask an imperfect peak when it comes to single lap situations. And it did show that over the course of all those laps, Piastri still has got it. He can still do stuff with this car over repeated laps. And it's not like Norris has uncovered a permanent three tenth advantage or anything to call him the absolute better driver at McLaren. The average gap is again, just one tenth of a second in qualifying. That could be decisive inside one team though, but to us, that's just within a single corner. And at that scale, Stella's language does become more revealing, because McLaren needs Piastri to access speed through behaviour Andrea says come less naturally to it. The harder question is whether that adaptation can preserve the precision, which made him so effective when the car was more predictable and the regulations were different. But having said that, drivers regularly change technique without losing themselves. So that danger should not be romanticised. Piastri's junior record and rapid Formula One progress suggests he can learn quickly. And then of course, Japan earlier this year was a masterclass in what he was able to do when McLaren were really on the back foot. And it made us think for a brief moment that hey, Oscar could be the guy who could be the title challenger that isn't Baudette in the Silver Arrows colour scheme. And yes, we do have to get the spanner out for certain aspects of this, because we don't know where the developmental model of McLaren has gone in it, maybe favouring the likes of Lando and what he's been able to glean in terms of qualifying. As in, are McLaren looking at what Lando has been able to do since Monaco when things are really important in terms of the Constructors' Championship, as in, fending off Red Bull, or maybe now, looking to Ferrari and Mercedes and thinking, I might want that. I might want a hat trick. And thinking maybe, is this a case of Lando winning the developmental war? Because it's something I've been musing for months now. And this applies to every single team on the grid, which is why especially I think George Russell is really aggrieved by this. Because 2026 is a year where all the teams will have their drivers wanting to shape the cars of the future. Oscar had it, but now he's lost it, at least in terms of qualifying, the format which Mercedes seems to still have sewn up, certainly more so than the racers themselves, either down to reliability issues or procedural errors. If McLaren's upgraded cars benefits Lando more than Oscar into the second half of the year, it will hint that maybe he is having the advantage there, with Piastri very much on the back foot. Now I'm not saying that Oscar is down and out or anything like that. There is perfect opportunities for him to be able to turn all this around, going into the second half of the season. Maybe try and emulate what he's been able to do around Mexico last year, where he and Stella sat down and realised, hmm, if you want to have any chance of maintaining the championship lead, or at least contesting for it, you need to go outside your comfort zone in terms of your driving style. Instead of being smooth, you have to attack more, go against your natural instincts. So maybe Oscar might have to do that again, as in, you have to go against everything that you've been taught to try and at least have a chance of gaining that little bit extra, that edge in terms of development. They may not be in contention, Lando and Oscar, for the World Championship this year, but they could certainly have plenty of momentum going into 2027 to maybe challenge for it then. So let's return to the tweet. Four years on, and he's bagged nine wins, two Constructors titles, but no World Championships. Last year had him with a 34 point lead, that vanished. Now we're into the 2026 season, but the regulations appears to tax the exact driving quality his team boss calls too clean. Nobody asking Piastri to celebrate the anniversary thinking about any of this though, no. Instead, they may be remembering the audacity of a reserve driver who said no so publicly, and so, wow. They're right to celebrate that, and nothing about this year changes that. But the anniversary now also carries a present tense question. The ability for him to be able to shape the MCL40 and maybe the MCL41 is not absolutely a lost cause, but the opportunity for him to have that little bit more than Lando is rapidly closing, and has been closing since Monaco. As in, every single time in qualifying, Lando's just had that more to have track position at the start of a race. And I think when the time comes and McLaren decides to pull the plug on the 40 and move to the 41, that'll be when they call time and ring the bell in terms of the battle, where we might see if Lando is quite considerably ahead, not only will Oscar have to help him out in terms of the championship if there is a bid, or maybe a chance to have a bid, mathematically speaking, but then he might be on the back foot when it comes to trying to develop the car to maybe bring it back to him for next year. Basically, if McLaren sees, hey, Lando can get more out of this car than Oscar can, do we want to try and get a driver's championship? Well, I mean, yeah, because it will mean that Lando's more likely to stay with us, and a happy Lando means a happy McLaren. Yeah, there could be many cogs turning, which may explain... Okay, we won't get into driver transfer talk right here, I'm just talking about the tweak and the year so far. Because he's only 25 and he's quick enough on Sundays to lead races, and he only trails Norris by a tenth in qualifying, that margin could close over the summer break, or it could widen as McLaren develops the car further, but right now, the gap is small. Because Zandvoort's coming up next in a few weeks' time, and that'll be one year to the weekend almost, when Piastri got that pole to chequered flag win, and was able to get that gap from nine points to 34, off of the back of course, let's remember, Norris's own gearbox failure within that Grand Prix. That anniversary, I don't think will get the same numbers as the Alpine tweet, but I think it will certainly be a lot more representative as to where we think the four-year arc has been headed so far. And I think this video will be representative of what kind of content you like from me, and what will also keep you up the ladder. I'll see you over there.