"Situation of our army at front is critical, Ukrainians take back positions" - Kremlin propagandists
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Russian Z-propagandist Anastasia Kashevarova admitted on a Russian media outlet that Ukraine maintains the advantage in the drone war. A video of her statement was published by Ukrainian journalist Denis Kazansky. Kashevarova stated that in drone combat, the Ukrainian side largely holds the upper hand, and Russia has not yet been able to catch up with Ukraine in the diversity and quality of its UAVs and Ukrainians take back positions.
"The Ukrainians are winning because they have a larger and more diverse UAV fleet. Drone battles are underway, and the skies are, naturally, mostly in the enemy's hands. This is a fact that everyone is talking about, and this situation has never changed. We haven't caught up with them in this regard yet," she said. The statement is particularly telling because it comes not from Ukrainian military personnel or Western analysts, but from within the Russian propaganda community.
For Russia, this is an unpleasant admission, observers note. Moscow has long tried to demonstrate its rapid adaptation to drone warfare, but even Kremlin-friendly commentators are already citing technological lag. Ukraine, meanwhile, has transformed drones into a distinct warfare system: from reconnaissance and airstrikes to strikes against equipment, logistics, oil refineries, warehouses, and facilities deep in Russia's rear.
Ukraine’s ‘logistical lockdown’ programme has unleashed a sustained and coordinated series of attacks on Russia’s military supply chains in recent weeks. If previous salvos targeting Russia’s infrastructure had demonstrated what Ukraine’s evolving drone capabilities were able to do, the latest campaign represented a concerned and coordinated effort to shut down Russia’s military supply chains and fuel supplies, revealing serious weaknesses in Russia’s rear defences. But the campaign also demonstrated some of the practical and political limitations of attacking infrastructure in this way.
In the latest campaign, Ukraine has zeroed in on Russia’s logistical supply chains around Crimea, particularly localised around the R-280 Novorossiya highway, which runs from Russia’s Rostov region to Crimea via the occupied territories. It is an alternative route to the Kerch Bridge, which itself has come under attack numerous times since the invasion. While an integral part of the rear, these logistics routes were believed by Russia to be deep behind the frontlines and therefore relatively immune from attack. These latest sustained attacks have proven how vulnerable Russia’s rear can be. All of these issues in concert highlight two things about Russia’s ability to protect its infrastructure.
The first is Russia’s geographic loss of strength gradient – the idea that military force loses combat power per unit of reach from its bases. This affects Russia’s ability to move its forces around and project power significantly further from its home territory. These attacks on infrastructure around Crimea in particular reveal the substantive problems that Russia is encountering in protecting and maintaining the connectivity of its long and vulnerable supply chains across large geographic distances far from its Rostov bases in the south.
Second, this raises important questions about how Russia can protect its critical national infrastructure deep behind the front line, as the geographic range, stealth and altitude of Ukraine’s drones shifts and Russia’s manpower is preoccupied in a different direction. This includes how Russia will be able to defend its ports, railway systems, and oil refineries, not just in the European part of Russia but also in Siberia and the Far East. In many areas of the Far East, the Trans-Siberian is a long and vulnerable single track.
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