China's “occupation” of Russia's Far East became a major problem for Moscow: Putin is helpless

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As new rounds of Russia-US negotiations on Ukraine prepare, the Kremlin is drafting a law on "Super-TOR"—a unified priority development zone in the Russian Far East and the Arctic. While these are formally tax breaks for investors, they are essentially an attempt to weaken Chinese influence in the region and gain bargaining power with Washington. Political analyst Igor Tishkevich explains the implications of this initiative for Russia itself. We publish his full column.

To dilute the Chinese. To negotiate with the States. So, in the Russian Federation, they plan to create a "Super-TOR" that will include territories of the Far Eastern Federal District. Part of the Arctic territories will also be included.

The very idea of TORs or priority development areas and the more recently established territories of priority social and economic development or TSEDAs is not new. They are a kind of analogue of free economic zones, where, depending on the territory, tax incentives, customs incentives, and even immigration incentives are available. Moreover, although TORs and TPSEDAs are considered synonymous, the former were actually created earlier and offered a wider range of "gifts" to investors. The latter, primarily in the North, have a "hybrid" format – they are governed largely with the dominant participation of local authorities in the regions where they are established. Why is this so important? PRIs initially emerged in the Far East. And soon, these territories in the region became strongholds for Chinese business. I mean entirely Chinese—with Chinese management, Chinese workers, and Chinese internal practices. Theoretically, Russia could benefit from this by reaping a technological boost to the local and national economy. However, Beijing is in no rush to introduce high-tech production in the region. Resource extraction, yes, and technology transfer, are being conducted very cautiously. As a result, the Far Eastern Federal District is increasingly becoming an economic "branch" of China.

Beijing, for its part, is eyeing the Arctic priority development areas with interest. After all, Arctic sea routes are a priority. And gaining the opportunity to create key ports there means gaining control of what was until recently called the "Northern Sea Route." The Kremlin is in no rush to launch Chinese companies. It's scary.

Moreover, recalling the "Spirit of Anchorage," Putin actively "sold" Trump specifically the Arctic and access to the businesses and resources of the Far East. For Washington, this is important in terms of containing Beijing—controlling the logistics of the new transport corridor and competing for the Far East's resource base. Developing relations with Russia in this context is a policy of containing China. Putin understands this logic and sells it in exchange for concessions on the Ukrainian issue. Both at the time of the freeze agreement's conclusion, and afterwards—through a return to the "Western" economy and US support in this matter.

But "giving up the Arctic" to the US while ignoring China's interests is terrifying. Furthermore, Washington wants access to the Far East, where Chinese companies are already established.

For Russia itself, the "Sinicization of the Far East" is becoming a problem, especially given the impact on the oil industry and trade. Media've already written that for any empire, maintaining territorial connectivity is a matter of survival. And if there are problems not only with the movement of goods but even with "flights to Russia", the region will quickly and painlessly reorient itself toward a new, as they say in Moscow, "decision-making center." In other words, both socially and politically, it will increasingly lean toward China. A threat to Russia itself. If an entire region is given the opportunity to transition to its own tax, customs, and immigration systems, that's real "federalization." And a real distance from Moscow.


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