Russia is preparing a new offensive: a major identified dangerous direction in the north of Ukraine
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By autumn, Russia may concentrate additional forces on the northern section of the border, as new units are currently being formed.
As retired Major Oleksiy Getman stated on Kyiv 24 , in the future, we could be talking about at least five divisions, which are currently in the process of being created. If these units are deployed in the northern direction, Ukraine will have to take into account the increased threat and strengthen the defense of border areas.
According to Getman's estimates, an additional seven to ten brigades may be needed to reliably cover the approximately 160-kilometer stretch of the border with the Bryansk region.
The military man also noted that creating such a large number of units would require an increase in mobilization rates by approximately 20-30%. Furthermore, he emphasized the need to continue rotating personnel and reinforce units already performing combat missions.
"The Russians are currently forming new divisions, and they could be ready for use by autumn. We need to consider this risk and prepare in advance for a possible strengthening of the enemy," Getman noted.
According to the expert, the northern direction remains one of the most sensitive areas due to the significant length of the border, so it is important for Ukraine to have sufficient reserves of forces in advance to quickly respond to possible changes in the situation.
Retired major and military analyst Alexei Getman believes the risk of increased Russian troop activity in northern Ukraine remains high. He believes the Russian forces' primary goal is not to capture Kyiv or Chernihiv, but to create additional pressure on Ukraine's defenses.
The expert believes that opening or strengthening the northern direction could force Ukraine to transfer additional units there and distribute forces along a longer front line.
"The redeployment of Ukrainian forces to the north could weaken defenses on other sections of the front and create more favorable conditions for the Russian army to launch an offensive," he said. As a reminder, Oleg Zhdanov noted that the risk of opening a full-fledged second front from Belarusian territory is unlikely, but covert operations by the aggressor cannot be ruled out.
Previously, Igor Reiterovich, head of political and legal programs at the Ukrainian Center for Public Development, was convinced that self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is unlikely to agree to his country's direct involvement in the war against Ukraine. "As for Belarus, Putin would, of course, very much like to exploit this avenue. But Lukashenko won't go along with it. Despite his complete loyalty to Russia, he doesn't want to drag the Belarusians into a war against Ukraine because he understands how that could end for him," Reiterovich notes. According to the expert, Lukashenko will continue to maneuver and make grandiose statements, but will avoid steps that could drag Belarus into a war against Ukraine. Reiterovich believes the Belarusian leader will even be afraid to allow Russia to launch Shahed missiles or other similar attacks. "Regarding mobilization in Russia, Putin won't launch a broad, general mobilization until September because elections are coming up. They may intensify what they're already doing. But that won't radically change the situation the way they'd like," the expert concludes.
According to Reiterovich, Russia has no new tools to achieve its goals. He believes the Kremlin will not use nuclear weapons, so Russia will continue to rely on mass assaults and other methods it has used in the past.
"Putin will need some kind of victory at any cost. He's willing to sacrifice a huge number of people for this victory. It's the only thing he has now," Reiterovich concluded.
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