Nobody Thought This Was Possible...

No one thought this was possible, but here we are. Francisco Alvarez, who came into this season as the projected Mets franchise catcher and one of the possible biggest breakout stars of this Mets season, is now being heavily mentioned in trade talks and is amongst the most appealing assets that the Metropolitans have at this upcoming Major League Baseball trade deadline. What's going on, guys? I'm Josh Byrne. You're tuned into Mets Digest. Guys, thank you for all the support over the recent weeks, over the recent days. This Mets season has been an absolute dumpster fire, and that's not really even doing it justice, but that just means that we are even more grateful for all the engagement thus far, and we will continue to break down everything you need to know here at Mets Digest. So for the 68% of you who are not subscribed but watching this video, please do consider subscribing if you're interested in these daily updates. We'll also have live streams coming soon, and we are on X and TikTok. Now, Francisco Alvarez is sort of a polarizing figure, somewhat like Francisco Lindor has become, because for Francisco Alvarez, he was the number one prospect in baseball back in 2022. He was seen as one of the next superstar catchers in the game, and back then, back in 2022, as he was riding up the minor leagues, all you saw on a daily basis on social media was Alvarez hitting monster moonshot home runs, and you were chomping at the bit as a Mets fan to watch this guy come up and impact the Major League roster. Now, what's been the outcome of that? Well, it's been a mixed bag, but there's certainly been a lot of sparks and a lot of periods of excitement, and yet throughout all four years since he made his Major League debut, there's about more mystery than ever before about what Francisco Alvarez is as a Major Leaguer, and even more so about his future as a New York Met. So let's get right into it. Tim Boyle of RisingApple.com had this to say about the whole situation here with Francisco Alvarez's trade availability. He said, quote, his trade candidacy is one to watch closely as the trade deadline nears. The catcher pool is weak across the entire league, and the Mets haven't made it a secret. They prefer Luis Torres behind the plate. Guys, Luis Torres is the number one defensive catcher in the Major Leagues, and that's given the fact that he doesn't play most days. That's given the fact that he's a backup catcher. He has 11 defensive runs saved, which is far and away the leading tally of any Major League catcher. He may not be Mike Piazza with the bat, but he's incredible defensively, and he's certainly better than Francisco Alvarez. And Tim Boyle from RisingApple is really echoing what has already been reported on Alvarez's availability in trade talks. Will Salmon of The Athletic had this to say last week, quote, Alvarez is perhaps the only position player under club control holding legitimate value that the Mets might consider moving on from. Multiple evaluators said it wouldn't be surprising if Alvarez could fetch Major League ready pitching or hitting help from a different position in a trade. Wow. Certainly something to consider when you realize that of the Mets' controllable players, Francisco Alvarez is seen as the most appealing option of that bunch. Now, looking at what Alvarez has done this season, he has a 766 OPS, he has 11 home runs, and of course he dealt with that injury. He dealt with the hand injury earlier this year. He's come back. He's been a DH at times. He's been a catcher at times. But again, he's been extremely streaky, and this is something that we've seen his entire career. Now, looking at how he's graded out on a macro level this season, according to baseball reference, he's put up 0.6 wins above replacement. But if you look at fan graphs, it's a little higher on Francisco Alvarez as they give him 1.2. Now, in case you're wondering, how does this season for Alvarez stack up to his career? Well, as I said, it's been pretty similar. And when you look at the career chart, he's hit 11 home runs in back-to-back seasons, not because he's not bestowing a lot of power, but because he's been struggling to stay on the field. Now, that's not totally fair to him. He's dealt with a lot of freakish injuries. Obviously, catcher is one of the most painful positions to play in baseball. They take so many broken bats, pitches to the face, you name it, they take a beating out there. And Francisco Alvarez has certainly not evaded those dangers, unfortunately, for him. And he has nonetheless put up average to above-average offensive ranks. And if you look at OPS Plus, anything above 100 is better than the league average hitter, which means that this year's 113 OPS Plus that Francisco Alvarez has means he's 13% better than the league average hitter. That is important to realize, and he has a 106 OPS Plus for his career. The reason I say it's important to realize is because that's going up against all major league hitters. When you look specifically at the catcher position, they are averaging far less offensive stats. And Alvarez, say what you want about his whole game, say what you want about his ability to stay on the field or lack thereof, and say what you want about his defense that we'll get to next, but he is one of the better offensive catchers in major league baseball. He's also still 24 years old. And because he's been on the Mets for five years now, sometimes people roll their eyes when they hear about his age, but it is true that he is still 24 years old and there is a very legitimate shot that he has not developed into a finished product at the major league level, especially considering the fact that outside really of 2023, he's never put together a fully healthy season in the big leagues. Now, taking a at his savant page. Basically this year, he is hitting the ball extremely hard. He's getting the barrel out, but he's also striking out a good amount. He's not drawing a ton of walks. And more importantly than those offensive weaknesses, his defense hasn't graded well. His defense has been a subject of ridicule his entire career. Even when Alvarez was a top prospect, he was criticized and there were a lot of people that were speculating whether he would be an average to above average defensive catcher. He's had his moments, but things have sort of changed. Obviously the ABS challenges now, and obviously the new rules for base runners have changed the perception of what it means and what goes into being a good defensive catcher. Francisco Alvarez, as you'll see in prior seasons, was one of the best framers in major league baseball. By the way, that still matters. Teams only get, you know, they only get two ABS challenges or at least two unsuccessful ABS challenges in the game. So it's not like they can challenge every pitch, but it's certainly framing, not a skillset that is quite as imperative as it used to be. But 2024, you know, things were more of a mixed bag, but again, he was hurt that year. You know, you look at 2025, again, you see those faded out batting metrics. That's because he didn't qualify for those numbers. And the reason he didn't qualify is because he wasn't healthy the entire season. Then you look at 2023, which is really all we have for a full slate of games. And interestingly enough, that here, he graded out very well defensively because his framing was at an elite level. He had a decent pop time, but look, I wouldn't really look at that to summarize his entire defensive career and his resume. I would say it's been up and down. I personally, based on the eye test, what I've seen, I think he's an average to slightly below average defensive catcher. He does let up quite a few pass balls at times, which can be frustrating. And I think he's slightly below average in terms of throwing runners out. But there's no doubt about it that Francisco Alvarez, despite being underwhelming offensively compared to where he was ranked as a prospect, is still one of the better hitters of major league catchers. It's not saying a ton when you consider major league catchers are generally hitting in the lower 600s in OPS, but nonetheless, that is a useful attribute. And the question becomes, after everything we've seen and everything he's done with three years left of control, is it worth trading Francisco Alvarez? And I'd be very hesitant, guys. I'd be extremely hesitant to trade Francisco Alvarez. Extremely careful. I agree with Will Salmon's assessment that Alvarez is one of the most appealing options and could net the Mets one of the most robust returns of their controllable homegrown players that will be thrown around on the trade market. But that doesn't mean that they will get something which is worth pulling the trigger and pursuing. Because this is a situation in which you trade Alvarez. And as much as people like Luis Terrenz, I don't believe there is a macro level perception that he can step in and be a viable everyday catcher. I think Alvarez and Terrenz as a duo is a strength for this team at the catching position. If you get rid of Alvarez, Terrenz by himself is not going to cut it. You're not going to bring up Hayden Senger for the long term and have him serve as the backup catcher. That's not something I believe will happen. Nor do I believe that'll be a sufficient replacement for Francisco Alvarez. Alvarez hasn't lived up thus far to where he was as a prospect. But there's enough time with three years of control and he's shown enough, in my view, to hold on to him unless you get a viable young starting pitcher who can step right into the rotation. Or a top prospect first baseman. Because frankly, I'm not sold on Ryan Clifford. I'm totally not sold on Mark Mientos. The Mets have a serious hole there. But unless you're getting a major league ready young talent to fill a significant area of need for the Mets in return for Francisco Alvarez, I'm not dealing him. I'm not dealing him for guys who are 18, 19 years old in the lower minor leagues who are question marks. Because as much of a question mark as Alvarez is in his own right, because we haven't seen him fully healthy in a time over a full season, and we still don't know the extent to which he's going to be an effective major leaguer, we do know that at the very least he's a useful major league player. We do know at the very least he is one of the better offensive major league catchers. And if you pair that up with Luis Terrens, who is objectively the best defensive catcher, then you can manipulate the lineup and use Alvarez as a DH sometimes, use him behind the backstop sometimes, and continue to have him develop and grow over the next three years. A three years in which the Mets intend to contend as soon as next season. So while no one thought this was possible, that we'd be talking about the possibility of the Mets trading Francisco Alvarez in the middle of this season, based on what Will Salmon has said, it is going to be brought up in discussions between David Stearns and rival executives. Alvarez's name will be out there. And for me, I'd be extremely cautious if I was Stearns. They can only, in my view, deal Francisco Alvarez unless they are getting a slam dunk major league ready guy who's shown something at the major leagues and is young in return. Nothing else will suffice. And that's my take on it. And based on that, I don't know how aggressive teams will be. It is true. It is a weak catching class. And so this very well could happen. But you best believe that if a Francisco Alvarez trade does take place in the next two weeks, the Mets better be coming out on the more beneficial end of the spectrum. This is a big deadline for David Stearns. All eyes are on him. And Alvarez is one of the most fragile assets the Mets have. There is a high risk in moving him and also a high reward. It's going to depend on the market. But if they deal him, they better be correct in their assessment of who they are getting back. Because while not perfect, Alvarez is already a valuable asset for the Mets. And they need a valuable asset in return. But let me know what you guys think down below. Francisco Alvarez, should the Mets trade him? What would it take in your view? Do you think he will be traded? And how do you feel about his career as a New York Met so far? Comment below. Let me know. And as always, guys, let's go Mets.