"Now is the perfect opportunity to overthrow Putin": the coup in Russia
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Why Russian elites now have the perfect opportunity to remove Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, who might replace him, and why Ukraine is currently facing in the West the very attitude it is trying to fend off in the East – an interview LIGAnet with Volodymyr Ogryzko, director of the Center for Russian Studies and Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. Regular strikes by the Defense Forces against Russian occupiers in occupied Crimea have already limited the sale of fuel to civilians on the peninsula. Fuel prices in Russia have skyrocketed in various regions. These are all small links in the same chain. Could this yield political results? Are Putin and the current Kremlin leadership taking this into account?
Volodymyr Ogryzko says: “According to the latest reports, a liter of 95-octane gasoline is selling for 400 rubles on the black market in Crimea. That’s 200 hryvnias per liter, if converted to Ukrainian currency. They’ve lowered [the gasoline quality standards] to E3. Next will come the total destruction of cars that are used to regular gasoline; they’ll start sputtering and smoking, and then they’ll be done for. Crimea is now on the brink of collapse, and the people who moved there are beginning to flee. This means that tensions have already reached a level around the region that could turn into a disaster for Putin. For Putin, Crimea is sacred territory. It has been a symbol of his power – that he is reclaiming Russian lands once lost. If Crimea falls, it will have a colossal impact on domestic politics in Russia. Even now, you know, YouTube is flooded with videos asking, "Why do we need this Putin? What’s going on? Why do we have to pay for this? We don’t want this." There’s already talk that this regime needs to be changed. This is about how the actual mood in society is changing. That said, I don’t believe for a single millimeter, not even one percent, that there will be a Russian uprising”. He adds that the only thing that will happen is a conspiracy by one of the groups in his inner circle. They’re different. There’s a group made up entirely of KGB operatives, which, in fact, keeps him under their thumb. There are other influential groups who understand that if things go on just a little longer, not only Putin but they themselves will ultimately lose all their power completely. “Right now, they have the perfect opportunity to isolate Putin or eliminate him. And then they can pin all the blame on him. Americans will fly in, Europeans will arrive. These people will have the chance to say: "Putin held us hostage, and there was nothing we could do! Now he’s gone, and we’re building a new, wonderful Russia of the future, and we’ll work everything out with you." The group of people around Putin needs to think about this now in order to save themselves and, perhaps, Russia – which, for them, is still a single, unified entity. Because even good Russians cannot imagine Russia any different from what it is today. Although that will no longer be up to them”, he says. According to Russian economists living in the West and official sources, Russian banks currently hold somewhere around 74–75 trillion rubles. That’s an astronomical sum. But 95% of that amount belongs to oligarchs who keep their money in Russia. Of course, they have yachts, estates, and bank accounts abroad. But those assets have already been frozen. These people won’t be able to access them until they offer the West some kind of alternative. The only alternative is a change of regime.
Sanctions can, of course, be extended, but they won’t have much of an effect on this crowd anymore. The sanctions threshold has been reached. Unless draconian measures such as a trade embargo are announced – when at least the civilized world would say, "We won’t trade with Russia at all; a complete blockade". Unfortunately, Europe and the U.S. aren’t ready for that, and I don’t think they’ll be ready anytime soon. On the conspiracies among the elites surrounding Putin. If one KGB agent replaces another, what does that mean for Ukraine? Volodymyr Ogryzko says that it depends on which KGB agent. “- I don’t want to name names right now of people who were Soviet KGB agents and later became Ukrainian politicians with a pro-Ukrainian stance. Perhaps this process is different in Russia, where the system hasn’t changed. So if one KGB agent replaces another, it really won’t make any difference. But.
In fact, the oligarchs put a KGB agent on the Russian throne. Now everyone has abandoned that naive idea. That’s why they’ll choose a [successor] from among those who can be sold to the West as at least some kind of reasonable person with whom they can negotiate.