
The crisis in Crimea is escalating: buses are not operating, and fuel will continue to be scarce
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The fuel crisis in temporarily occupied Crimea is worsening, according to the peninsula's Gauleiter, Sergei Aksyonov, on his Telegram channel .
"Large volumes of fuel will not go on sale in the near future," he noted.
Aksyonov urged Crimeans to be patient. He also assured them that public transportation and utilities are fully supplied with fuel. He says he's receiving complaints about trolleybuses and buses not running. He's addressing this issue "manually." Furthermore, he said, there are numerous complaints about the unfair distribution of electricity across the peninsula. One of the reasons, he said, is the technical condition of certain substations.
He promised to explore technical possibilities for resolving this issue, stating that the "task force" is developing "measures to organize a fair distribution of electricity."
As reported, a regional state of emergency was declared in temporarily occupied Crimea and the city of Sevastopol last week .
Local Gauleiters stated that the regime was being introduced to regulate financial, monetary, credit, contractual and other relations, as well as to address issues of compensation for losses.
The so-called governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaev, reported that the energy supply situation on the Crimean Peninsula remains difficult. From the jewel in Vladimir Putin's imperial crown to a thorn in his side, the 2014 conquest of Crimea is once again becoming a spectre for him as Russia's war in Ukraine reaches a stalemate, writes Newsweek.
The publication noted that the Russian-installed authorities in Crimea declared a "state of emergency" on June 26 after Ukrainian attacks led to fuel shortages, power outages, and restrictions on the daily lives of civilians on the occupied peninsula.
The article states that gasoline sales to civilians have already been suspended, and Kremlin-appointed Crimean governor Sergei Aksyonov has stated that fuel will be supplied exclusively to government agencies. Putin acknowledged a fuel shortage in Russia, while promising to strengthen air defenses, increase repair work, and increase supplies to Crimea, home to Russia's only warm-water naval base.
"Kyiv, as before, is striving to recapture Crimea from Russia – a goal that many Western analysts consider unattainable for Ukraine," the publication noted.
It is noted that Crimea is becoming a trap for Putin: too symbolic to give up, too vulnerable to use as before, and too expensive to normalize the situation. The publication presents five scenarios for how the crisis around Crimea, provoked by Putin, could unfold: 1. Putin is strengthening Crimea and making Russians pay for it. Putin said Russia would increase fuel imports, speed up repairs to oil facilities, and increase supplies to Crimea by land and sea.
This is the most likely near-term scenario, as it fits his management style: cover costs, centralize control, deny that battlefield pressure changes the political situation. 2. Ukraine is turning Crimea into an island, but will not be able to seize it.
The article notes that in early June, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced that the R-280 highway, connecting Rostov-on-Don with occupied Crimea, had come under the control of Ukrainian fire.
This scenario doesn't require Ukraine to storm the peninsula. It requires Ukraine to continue to make Crimea an unreliable logistics hub, isolating it. 3. Moscow is increasing pressure in other regions to prove that Crimea is inviolable.
According to the Kremlin leader, the Ukrainian strikes were aimed at dividing Russian society and forcing Moscow to negotiate on Kyiv's terms.
In this scenario, Russia responds to pressure on Crimea by expanding punitive measures against Ukraine, rather than changing its course on Crimea. 4. Crimea becomes a "poison pill" in any agreement. This scenario envisions a diplomatic freeze, in which Crimea remains under Russian control without a real resolution to the sovereignty issue. Russia has integrated Crimea, but its control over the territory is not internationally recognized, and Putin seeks to change this. 5. Crimea hurts Putin, but doesn't overthrow him
Putin ruled out the possibility of concessions and emphasized that Russia would prevail despite temporary setbacks, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has repeatedly stated that Russia's position on Ukraine remains unchanged.
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