$80 Billion in Federal Loans Just Dropped for Nuclear — Our UOA Scanner Has the Trade | MIT LIVE

Hey everybody, it's Jonathan. Welcome to Masters in Trading Live. I've got to set my desk up a little bit. At Masters in Trading, I get on here every day the stock market's open, 11 a.m. Eastern time. Go over the market, share some thoughts. And once in a while, we will share our trade of the day. How's everybody doing? Got a whole bunch for you guys today. I'm going to go over the overall market. Market is very volatile to start. Market tried to get hit. We found some support. I got a very cool line in the sand for you. And then I want to go into earnings. We are at the tail end of earnings season. We have about 20 names or so still left to go through earnings. So I'm going to go over those as well. I got the chat open. Welcome everybody. Hello. My friend sent me a SpaceX shirt. The future is public. The future is the moon. And then there's some SpaceX stuff on the back. So thank you. Thank you. All right. I'm going to get right into it, guys. I have a whole bunch to get through today. I want to start here, guys. We started in the morning with expected move, 8.40 a.m. Hopefully you guys can see this, but we have our expected move and we have it on a monthly and then we have it on a weekly. Here's what it looks like on the weekly. On the weekly, 7.14.47. The market came and touched that this morning. It's kind of cool. You can see the last week it came and touched the high. The week before it came and touched the low. So these are really, really reliable guys. But we shared this in our Discord this morning, guys. 7.14 is the weekly expected move. Let's use that as our line in the sand. Very cool question from Snowman in the Discord. Last week we talked about a trade in REPL. And this morning I had a question on REPL. And I know that I shared this with you guys, too. So I figured I would go over this trade with everybody. Does anybody have REPL? Let me just get a show of hands for anybody who has REPL. Here's the question. I have REPL. I got the November 10th calls for $250,000, but I never got the $20,000 calls. So right now, Snowman has longed the $10,000 calls. Now the $20,000 calls are selling above $165,000. Would this be a good time to do the trade? So, nice one. Here's what we're doing. Long November 10 calls. The original trade was a $250,000 debit. The question that Snowman is asking, hey, should I sell the 20s? Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. So watch. Buy the $250,000, 10 calls. Sell the 20s. Now your risk is gonna be $250 minus $1.65, right? Your risk is only $0.85. The most that you can make is the difference less your $0.85. That's how we're doing the trade. Then you just sit and wait. There's nothing else that you need to do. R-E-P-L, November, the 10s that you bought for $250, and the 20s that Snowman sold for $1.65. That's the trade. You're just long stock from 10, short stock from 20. You want that stock to go over 20 by expiration. Fantastic. Roger, great trade. Eddie, great trade. Rick, Eric, see a bunch of you guys have repelled. That's how I would handle that trade management. Really, really freaking awesome trade. Celebrate the glockenspiel when we have good trades. All right, we're at the tail end of earnings season, guys. When earnings season comes around, we trade earnings the exact same way. We don't speculate on the direction of a stock once it releases earnings, okay? We don't speculate whether it's gonna go higher or whether it's gonna go lower. What we do instead is we wanna play movement. We wanna find names that are priced to move too little. They're priced to move like this, but really, they can move like this. That's what we're looking for, and that's what we're gonna go over today. Every single name that we're gonna do in earnings trade, we backtest. We wanna see how it moves previously. So here's a ticker, H-E-L-E, okay? H-E-L-E, the last four earnings, this is how much it moved. It was down 31%, down 26%, down 14, and then up 26. All that matters is the movement. Don't worry if it was up or down. The average that H-E-L-E moves after it releases earnings is 24.6%, okay? That's how much it's moved after its last four earnings. Well, I'm gonna do it with a real market instead because it'll be easier to teach and easier to follow. H-E-L-E. Right now, in order to figure out what it's priced going into earnings, you can look at what's called the straddle. If I put a straddle up here, last trade at 26, the at-the-money straddle, it's gonna be 25 because there's no 26 strike, but the straddle is about, eh, $5, say, something like that. So if we go here, right now, 5.4 is what percentage of 26? It's about 22%. Well, H-E-L-E historically moves 24.6%. So right now, because the options market is pricing in 22%, H-E-L-E is probably a pretty good trade. Now, it's not a freaking crazy trade. It's not jump up all in down that it's such a good trade, but I just wanna show you how it moves historically versus how it moves right now. Straddle, about $5. Implied moves about closer to 21% now. So I gave it a little score. I went through all the names that are still yet to deliver their earnings, and I gave them a grade to see which ones have edge and which ones do not. Here are the ones that I think have edge. H-E-L-E, this is gonna be closer to 21, so I'm not gonna be in love with this one. I haven't looked at any of these. F-C, now F-C is on here as number one, but the problem with F-C is it's not very tradable, okay? So sure, it might look like a really good opportunity and the value might be there, but unfortunately, we can't trade that. So that's just kind of life in the big city. W-O-R, now W-O-R is interesting because W-O-R is tradable. Doesn't have crazy open interest, but you don't need crazy open interest, guys. In order to trade options, you just need a market. You see it's $1.35 at $1.50. You could buy $1.50 all day if you want. 10 have traded, 61 have traded up here, so a little bit better liquidity in W-O-R. Average move after, this is a low vol stock. It's about a 10% price to move after its earnings. That's really not a lot of movement. So W-O-R, it looks okay, but it's not a very, very active stock. Let me see, APOG, nope. We are at the tail end of earnings season, so it's gonna be tough to find good trades. GBX, and see, it just doesn't have the liquidity. So right now, guys, there's not gonna be any good earnings trade that's gonna really jump out. I thought HELI was good, but I don't like that the volatility is quite a bit higher. So three clean, long, long volatility. Forget this. I got a trade for you guys. I was actually thinking about sharing one of these trades, but as I go through the analysis, I don't love it. But I do have a trade that I really do love. These are the Fs. These are the ones that we would never, ever take. Bad, don't do them. Okay, forget all that. That's how we do earnings. We're gonna go on to the next topic. This next topic is gonna create a trade as well. There's a catalyst. Washington just ordered a nuclear fleet. Washington just put a whole bunch of money. The Trump administration is pushing a major build-out. 10 new Westinghouse reactors backed by a federal loan and support framework built to compress timelines and restart American nuclear construction. So Trump administration, major, major bailout. Who's gonna benefit at this last major bailout? Well, here's who's gonna benefit. Brookfield. More AP 1000 orders, Westinghouse, and Brookfield owns 51% of Westinghouse. So all these orders that are gonna come down are all gonna benefit Brookfield. Okay, it's the AI power wave. This is exactly what BN is built for. Now, I like BN, but I'm gonna pull up the options. BN is not a volatile stock, but this news is gonna greatly benefit Brookfield Corp. So I'm gonna look at the options. I'm gonna look at the stock, and we're gonna do the analysis right here for everybody. So let's look at this vol vis. I'm gonna put on our weekly. Take off our weekly, put on our monthly. Okay, boom, boom. Watch your line of the sand. Market's getting down to that line of the sand once again. And now we're gonna look at Brookfield. BN, here's what it looks like. BN, kind of volatile. It's not really a big moving stock, guys. That's why I like kind of owning the stock rather than owning options. To own options, you really need movement. Another thing that we can do is to go out to January. And I actually like this better. What about we can do a bullish put spread, just keeping that Brookfield stays over 40 or 39, where you can potentially sell something down here, buy something here, and put yourself into a put spread where you're gonna benefit if BN or when BN continues to rally. So news out of Trump is gonna benefit reactors, but rather than go into reactors, we wanna go into Brookfield, okay? Read the news yourself, the Trump administration, major build-out, 10 new Westinghouse AP, 1,000 reactors. Brookfield owns 51% of Westinghouse. They are gonna get a piece of all those orders that come in. I don't like buying upside calls because I don't think there's a real reason why volatility should jump, but I do think BN will trade higher. All right, friends, that's what I got. What I always do is I break off to our all-access community. In our all-access, we'll go over some of our open positions. Thanks so much for watching. We'll see you guys back tomorrow, live. Jonathan Rose, Masters in Trading Live. Hey, guys, back on for all-access. What's up? Thanks, Sean. Getting compliments on the SpaceX shirts.