Renting is now cheaper than owning across the largest U.S. metros, even with home prices still sharply above where they sat in 2020. Multifamily real estate has taken a real hit in some of the most overbuilt Sun Belt markets, and nearly $900 billion in commercial debt is set to mature this year. Has the bottom already arrived, or is the bigger reset still ahead? The comparisons to 2008 come quickly, and the affordability math can look familiar on the surface. But multifamily and single-family are not absorbing this cycle the same way, and the reason runs deeper than rates alone. August Biniaz, Chief Investment Officer and co-founder of CPI Capital, builds and acquires multifamily and build-to-rent properties across Texas and Florida. He joins Market Insider to explain why this downturn isn't following 2008's script, and whether real estate has actually found its floor. ----- 02:04 How COVID Fueled the Real Estate Boom 04:19 Why Loan Maturities Matter Now 06:14 Why Renting Beats Owning Today 09:02 How Much Have Multifamily Values Fallen? 10:30 Are We Approaching a Market Bottom? 11:57 Who Is Buying Distressed Multifamily? 14:31 How Affordability Compares to 2008 15:44 Could Housing See Another 2008? 19:49 What Is Build-to-Rent Housing? 23:30 How Wall Street Moved Into Housing 26:01 Does Build-to-Rent Raise Prices? 28:40 Where Are Rents Headed Next? 31:39 What’s Next for Home Prices? ----- Let's Stay in Contact: • Substack - https://substack.com/@themarketinsidershow • X (Twitter) - https://twitter.com/MktInsiderShow • Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/company/market-insider-show/ ----- 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸𝘴 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘷𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘰 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘶𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘰 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘯𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵 𝘐𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭, 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘈𝘭𝘸𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘢 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴. 𝘚𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘱𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘣𝘦 𝘢𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘴.
Multifamily housing has been crashing
over the last couple of years,
but are we close to the bottom now?
Today, we sit down with August Biniaz,
who operates a fund in real estate.
He's here to tell us what he's seeing
in the marketplace right now,
and is this a good time to buy?
In 2026 today, there is $864 billion
of commercial real estate maturing this year.
A quarter of that is in multifamily.
Property values have dropped between 20% and 40%,
depending on market.
If the market, real estate market cycle was o'clock,
and 12 o'clock was top of the market,
and six o'clock was the bottom of the market,
so if we wanna look at what time is it today,
of course, we're much closer to six o'clock
than we are to 12 o'clock.
Now, is it five o'clock, or is it seven o'clock?
That's the question.
I'm Siamak, and this is Market Insider.
August, it's great to have you on, welcome.
Thanks for having me, looking forward to this.
We wanna talk to you about the housing market
and the real estate space.
You have a fund, and you're investing
in multifamily and commercial, right?
Can you tell us what's going on in the market?
What are you seeing out there right now?
Yeah, of course.
I mean, to talk about the market today,
we have to take a step back and see
what made us get to this point.
The great financial crisis,
the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008,
resulted in the US economy almost collapsing,
many banks, failures, and so on.
And from that moment,
the economy went through a recovery phase.
After that major recession,
same thing with the housing market.
And the bottom of the market came really in 2011.
That's when prices started, actually started going up.
So we were in recession for a few years.
But from there, the market went on a bull run,
both commercial real estate
and the residential real estate market.
It went on a bull run all the way up to 2019.
But by 2019, you were already seeing cracks
within the market.
It seemed that we were in the mania phase
of the real estate cycle,
because real estate continuously goes through these cycles.
So it was already somewhat frothy, the market as is known.
But soon after that, as you're aware,
COVID came, this cataclysmic event, the pandemic,
and it restarted everything.
So central banks around the world
had to lower interest rates to keep the economy going,
and they had to print a lot of money
so people didn't have to go to work and get sick.
And it resulted in inflation
because people had abundance of cash,
started spending a lot of money.
So inflation in the U.S. went up to 9%.
And from there, some could say that Fed was too late
to start increasing rates,
but then the Fed started going on a tightening cycle,
started increasing rates.
But from there, when interest rates were low
before the Fed started increasing rates, 2020, 2021,
a lot of acquisition groups,
people that buy already existing properties
in the commercial real estate space,
and developers started borrowing a lot of cheap debt
and acquiring a lot of deals
and started building a lot of deals.
So a lot of deals came online, a lot of deals transacted.
So you already had this inflated market,
real estate market, by 2019,
because of that bull run from 2011 all the way to 2019.
But as a result of cheap debt, that market even amplified.
And that was in multifamily or everything?
Multifamily, other asset classes.
For example, office space was an asset class
under the commercial real estate umbrella,
which was already in a difficult position
because of the lockdowns and what have you.
But yeah, every other asset class was booming,
multifamily as well.
So deals were trading at three caps.
So cap rate is a measuring stick
for commercial real estate,
is what type of yield you're getting
if you buy the property cash.
So 80s deals were trading at a three cap,
where historically they're trading at a six cap.
So people are paying a lot.
So double the price.
Double the price, pretty much, exactly.
Double the normal price that you should be paying.
Historical averages.
The mania market went into this other amplified market,
but when the Fed started going on a tightening cycle
and increasing rates, it really slowed everything down
and created some distress in the space,
which we're still facing today.
In 2026 today, there is $864 billion
of commercial real estate maturing this year.
A quarter of that is in multifamily.
So the loans are maturing.
Commercial loans are maturing.
So people have to get new loans.
Investment groups.
With double interest rates.
How does that?
Exactly.
Not only to get, you have to,
so commercial loans, unlike residential loans in the US,
they have a much shorter term.
Residential terms are around 30 years.
Commercial loans are around five years.
You can get them for three, you can get them for seven,
but the average is around five years.
So every five years, they have to renew those mortgages.
So anybody who bought anything at 2020, 2021,
now they have to, time has come
for them to renew those rates.
So not only rates have gone up,
but they also have issues with oversupply
because of so much development that went on,
so much supply came online.
And when supply comes online,
it has a downward effect on rents.
It has a downward effect on occupancy.
And also a lot of groups have to provide concessions
for tenants who are coming in.
So free month of rent, free couple of months of rent,
other types of concessions to bring in tenants.
And that has an effect on prices,
have effects on rent.
So valuations have dropped.
So when someone has bought a piece of multifamily property
and they paid a certain price for it,
obviously a very high price at a three or a four cap,
today, the cap rates have expanded.
So valuations have come down,
but their interest rates have gone up.
So the rents have come down.
So overall, the valuations are so low,
they're in most cases lower than even the note price,
the mortgage amount that they have borrowed.
So unlike 2008, a lot of lenders and banks
are working with borrowers to get them through this phase
that we're in currently.
But now that has gone on for a few years already
because the Fed went on a tightening cycle
starting from 2022.
So they were just pushing the cannon on the road,
but now they have started to call a lot of these loans
and foreclose on a lot of properties.
So we're seeing in our space,
a lot of deals coming online that are,
or we call them REOs,
real estate that's owned by the banks.
And they're either working with the current owner to,
they're amicable in some ways,
they're working together
instead of going through a foreclosure process
and they're trying to sell the property.
But in most cases,
they're either selling at a note price or even below that.
So that's where we're facing right now
with the commercial real estate space,
but on the residential side as well,
home prices from 2020 have gone up 35% nationwide.
And mortgage rates have also gone up.
So in 2020, prior to 2020,
it was cheaper to own on a medium home price
relative to a medium price for an apartment unit.
It was cheaper to own than it was to rent.
Today it's actually $1,500 more expensive per month
to own than to rent.
So it's cheaper to rent today.
So it's because of those increased mortgage rates
and mortgage amounts that people have to pay,
a lot of people are having to rent today.
So the price has gone up, the rates have gone up,
everything has gone up.
So you're seeing two different markets essentially
from what you're saying.
The multifamily, it's crashed,
but the single family hasn't moved.
What are you thinking?
What do you think about the single family market?
Single family, I mean, the consumer is still there.
The demand is there.
The issue is that the mortgage rate,
so it's not about demand,
it's about can people afford to buy that starter home?
So starter home, the $430,000 home in the US,
can they afford that home?
But today the answer is no
because of the increased and elevated mortgage rates.
So the hope, and that's why you can hear
the Trump and Trump's administration
trying to work with the Fed to reduce rates.
And they pretty much kicked out
the previous Fed chair, Jerome Powell,
and they've brought in a new guy
hoping for those rates to come down
so the affordability will be there more.
But as a result of inflation still being sticky,
inflation's at 3.6%,
the Fed wants the inflation at around 2, 2.5%,
so they can't reduce rates right now.
So overall, as far as fundamentals that exist
for housing and demand exists, persists.
However, because of elevated mortgage rates,
people are tending to rent today
and waiting for those rates to come down
and then they can get back into the market.
You also have issues when it comes to immigration.
Immigration is a big push when it comes to housing demand.
And you know that Trump's administration
is very much against illegal immigration,
but also legal immigration also as well.
So if you compare Trump's first term to Biden's term,
immigration really dropped in Trump's term
and then went up back in Biden's term
and then now it's dropped again
as a result of policy and other means.
So what are you seeing right now in the multifamily?
You said some banks are putting the inventory in the market.
They're essentially foreclosing these buildings.
It's not the individual homes that are getting foreclosed.
It's like apartment buildings getting foreclosed.
How would the pricing look like for these things?
Is it cut in half or is it less than half?
Yeah, just quickly,
you touched on a residential single family as well.
Now in 08, when the subprime mortgage crisis
resulted in a lot of distress within that space,
we're not seeing that currently
in the single family space
because a lot of mortgages that were secured
were secured into 2020, 2021,
a lot of properties that were purchased.
So they're good for the next 30 years.
They're actually-
And they're low rates.
They're in a very good position because rates are low.
They bought the homes on a perfect timing.
So those mortgages are fine.
Now, the same thing, the same time period,
2020, 2021, even 2022, when early 2022,
when commercial real estate properties
were purchased multifamily,
those mortgages are now maturing
and the valuations have dropped like we touched on earlier.
So there's a lot of distress in that space.
So yes, property values have dropped
between 20 and 40% depending on what market,
like a market like Jacksonville,
multifamily values have dropped 40%.
In markets like San Antonio and Austin,
property values have dropped by 20%.
That's really where we are currently
in the multifamily space,
but also any down market creates an opportunity as well.
Do you think it's going to go a lot more lower
than where it is,
or do you think it's heading the bottom on both of them?
I tend not to try to predict the market bottom
or market top,
but we know that if the current,
if the real estate market cycle was o'clock
and 12 o'clock was top of the market
and six o'clock was the bottom of the market
and top of the market is what we saw in 2019,
there's mania, there's multiple offers,
people are putting down non-refundable deposits,
they're purchasing at a very low cap rates,
that's top of the market.
Bottom of the market is recession,
people are walking away from their deposits,
there's a lot of foreclosures.
So if we want to look at what time is it today,
of course, we're much closer to six o'clock
than we are to 12 o'clock.
Now, is it five o'clock or is it seven o'clock?
That's the question.
Have we hit the bottom yet?
Have we not?
And when I touched on earlier
about commercial loans maturing this year,
we still got close to a trillion dollars
of commercial loans maturing,
so there could be a fact that
the bottom of the market is still not here,
that we still haven't seen the bottom.
But as an investment group, as an investor,
when you want to get into the market
and you're near bottom or you're just past the bottom,
it doesn't really make that much changes
because if the market has corrected already 20 to 40%
and you're going in there
and you're able to put the right debt,
you're able to put fixed debt for a five-year term
and you have the right thesis and right business plan,
you should be in a good position
even if the market drops another five or 10%.
So when you go to these deals with the banks,
is there a lot of competition?
Are there a lot of buyers that you're competing with
or is it the buyers don't have the appetite to be there?
There are still a lot of buyers.
There's still a lot of demand.
A lot of larger investment groups that raise capital
and have access to a lot of equity,
they have been in a buying mood now
for at least a couple of years.
It's not a situation where we're sitting on the sideline
from 2022 to 2024, approximately mid-2023.
There were a lot of groups were sitting on the sideline.
Today, they are in the buying mode,
but there is a bid-ass spread
between what they're willing to pay
and what the seller is asking.
The sellers are usually in either a bad place
or they're purchased these at a really high price.
So they're trying to either break even or have some profits
and they're not willing to take the offers.
There's also some sellers that purchase at a great basis.
They're in a good position,
so they're just testing the market
and they're not real sellers.
So there's a wide bid-ass spread
between what people are willing to pay
and what sellers are willing to accept.
But some deals are transacting.
The deal volume has dropped significantly
since its peak in 2022,
but there's also great opportunities
to be able to enter the market
on a right deal in the right market.
What about the banks?
You mentioned that they're working with these people,
but they're getting to the point
where they can't do it anymore.
It's kind of getting,
and some of it is coming to the market.
How are the banks approaching this?
Because in 2008, for the single-family homes,
they just flooded the market.
They didn't want to be in the business,
but it seems like this time for this multifamily,
they're trying to make it work.
And what are you seeing there?
Exactly.
They're not being as rigid as they were
post-08.
They are working with lots of their borrowers.
They're not taking the litigation route
to try to foreclose.
There's lots of refinancing on the mortgages.
They're restructuring the debt as is known.
But there's also deals that are in trouble
that the bank says,
I don't want to be in this no longer,
and they're walking away from a lot of these properties.
I think probably a follow-up question
would be how are the debt markets today
as far as lending?
So groups like us or other investment groups
trying to go into the market,
are the debt markets still available?
And today, absolutely they are.
Again, comparing it to post-2008,
in that time, the debt market had completely dried up.
Today, the debt is abundant.
You can easily borrow.
You can easily borrow,
both from agency and from banks and from private lenders.
So those options are available.
So some people do the comparison
because affordability level and the single-family,
it's kind of at the same levels as 2005,
even like real estate is not affordable right now
for a lot of people.
They compare the situation right now with 2008.
What are your thoughts on that?
Were you in the market in 2008?
What are you seeing?
I was somewhat in the market of 2008,
not in this industry,
but I was in the single-family market in 2008.
So as far as affordability,
I think affordability has been somewhat similar
from 2008 to today.
That ebbs and flows as far as where affordability is.
Again, goes back to where interest rates are at,
and it goes back to the income that people have.
You got to keep in mind that today,
when you look at rents compared to income
and look at the growth over the last three years,
income has actually grown faster than rents.
So affordability exists on the rental product,
but on the actual single-family,
the mortgage rates,
because of the elevated mortgage rates,
because we're still dealing with issues
with the inflation that existed post-COVID,
those mortgage rates are making it not affordable as before.
So comparing 2008 to now,
I don't have the exact data,
but I think it's pretty similar as far as affordability.
Well, what about where do you think we're headed?
Because there was a big crash in 2008.
Do you think we're going to be in the same position?
Some people say,
because we are in the same affordability situation as 2008,
we're going to have a major crash in housing.
And some people are hoping for a crash
because they want to buy.
Yes, I think the US debt markets learned a lesson from 08.
So I don't think debt was provided as easily
as it was in 08.
People buying multiple homes
and they're not being stress tested.
So there is a level of stress test
that was put on mortgage applications
from that moment onwards.
So I don't see the same foundational issues
that exist in the market as 08.
We can see that in the current market
because you can see the equities markets
aren't still doing well.
You haven't really seen any major bank failures
like we had in 08 that we saw over there.
So I don't think we have the same situation there.
Now we do have some headwinds
in the commercial real estate space
because of the items that we talked about
and the items we covered on also
when it comes to office space.
But overall, I think we are in a down market.
We are in the bust phase of the cycle,
but I think the future looks bright
for as far as where real estate is going to be.
So I don't foresee anything similar to 08.
So the bust you see is a 5-10% lower prices
for the single family.
Another aspect for single family
is also the merchant builders.
So you have these large publicly traded merchant builders
like D.R. Horton, Lenars that exist out there
and they build thousands of homes,
tens of thousands of homes every year.
They also learned their lessons as well from 08
because many of them went bankrupt post 08.
So the ones that are in the market,
even though they have the capacity
of building a quarter million homes a year,
they are capping themselves as 40,000 homes, 50,000 homes.
So you don't have that oversupply
the way you had in 08 as well.
That's why there are some differences
between what we're seeing today
with increased mortgage rates
and what we saw in 08 and the difficulties then.
So the banks have been more careful who they lend to
and then also the builders are not building as much.
Exactly.
So which markets are you investing in
and why?
We're very focused on Texas and Florida.
We're talking about the size of the economies.
So Texas and Florida individually
each have a larger economy than the whole country of Canada.
Their population is also massive,
nearly half or more than half of Canada's population.
So we love Texas and Florida.
In Florida, we're hyper-focused on Tampa Bay,
which is a major city of 3.2 million people.
It's a coastal city.
You know, it's life and work balance that it has.
Not only retirees are moving there,
but a lot of people are moving there for jobs as well.
And then in Texas, we're focused on San Antonio and DFW.
We're looking at deals in Austin as well.
We're trying to stay away from Houston,
but our major markets in Texas are San Antonio and DFW.
DFW, for example, its population currently around 8 million
is looking to grow to 15 million by 2050.
San Antonio's population is 2.9 million people.
It's about to take over from the seventh most populous city
in the U.S. to the sixth most populous city in the U.S.
So we're excited about those markets
and what they have to offer.
A lot of Fortune 500 companies
are moving their headquarters to those states.
As we can see, a lot of exodus from California
into Texas and also Florida as well.
With Florida, with Miami becoming the new Wall Street,
becoming that new economic hub post-COVID,
and this was happening before COVID as well,
but a lot of people were reluctant
to either go to the office
or they wanted to have more of a lifestyle
where they could be around the sun and enjoy their lives.
A lot of movement was taking place to Miami.
So as Miami becomes that Wall Street of the South,
that has an effect on all those other cities
across Florida as well.
And why are you not focusing on Houston
and focusing on the other areas in Texas?
Houston is a coastal city within Texas.
So it does deal with hurricanes at times and other issues.
So insurance costs are more.
And overall, when we looked at the market,
there was other factors that we didn't like
about the Houston market.
It has a somewhat of a boom and bust cycle to it.
We have a property in Houston,
but we're looking to, for now, stay away from Houston
for the time being.
It's got a reliance on oil and gas as well.
So it has a cyclical nature to it.
So oil does well, Houston does well.
Oil is not doing well, Houston has issues.
So we want a very diverse economy
for the cities that we invest in.
For example, San Antonio,
his economy is very diverse with education,
with manufacturing and so on,
but not a single economic driver
is more than 20% of the economy.
So that's what we want to see
in the cities that we invest in.
What are you buying now?
Are you buying multifamily?
Yeah, our main focus is multifamily.
And under the multifamily category,
we're focused on multifamily value-add.
And what that really means
is we buy a multifamily community
that is in need of some level of upgrade.
We go in there, we fix it up.
We increase rents when it makes sense
and make a better community for the tenants
and our consumers, and then exit that
and share the profits with us and our investors
within part of our fund.
So that's the multifamily value-add business model.
But we're also focused on built-to-rent as well.
The BTR asset class,
which is somewhat of a newer asset class
under the commercial real estate umbrella
where we actually build communities
of purpose-built rentals.
So either duplexes or single family.
I'm not sure if you've ever seen any of these,
but it's a whole rental community
where people can rent a home or a duplex
where they have a garage.
They have the safety of a community with gated community.
They have nobody living above them, below them.
So that asset class really serves
a certain particular demographic in the U.S.,
which is renters by choice, not renters by necessity.
Over one-third of the American population rents.
340 million population, over one-third rents.
And from that rental pool,
over 10% of the U.S. population
lives in apartment communities.
That includes townhomes and smaller buildings as well.
But that's a huge demographic, right?
That's, you're talking about around 40, 45 million Americans
that live in apartments.
A majority of that number is renters by necessity.
So they're renting because they either can't afford
or they're there, you know,
they're waiting for mortgage rates to come down.
But there is a rental demographic
that's renters by choice.
So they can afford to buy a home, but rather rent.
Those are cases where it's a new family,
so they're just renting,
waiting for the right time to buy the right home.
There are baby boomers or older generation
who are downsizing or they're moving
to be closer to their grandkids.
A lot of times they like to rent.
And these built-to-rent communities
are perfect setting for them because they're effortless.
They don't have to have any issues about maintenance
or so everything is managed for them.
They also don't have this other concept
that it wasn't familiar to me,
but there is a stigma associated with renting a home
in a owner's community.
So everybody owned and you're one of the only renters
in that place.
So there's a level of stigma.
So if you're living in a community
that everybody's a renter,
you don't have to deal with those issues.
So built-to-rent is the fastest growing asset class
under the Commercial Real Estate Umbrella as well.
So post 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis,
the real estate prices across the US dropped 30% in average.
These are single family real estate prices, 30%.
But real estate prices had grown post World War II
every single year, all the way up to 2008.
So large investment firms, large private equity firms,
they understood that this drop is just temporary.
The 30% drop is temporary.
And their business idea was to come in
and buy as many single family homes as they could
and just hold until the market came back
because real estate is cyclical, it eventually comes back.
So that was the plan.
And one of the major firms that did this was Blackstone.
Blackstone understood this idea.
So that's exactly what they did.
They partnered with a group out of the UK
and they created a company called Invitation Homes.
And they went out there and started buying
tens of thousands of homes
through this company, Invitation Homes.
They eventually bought 50,000 homes,
took the company public, bought a further 25,000 homes.
So altogether they bought 75,000 homes across the US
and Blackstone then exited Invitation Homes.
But Invitation Homes still a publicly traded company today.
It is the largest single family owner
of real estate in the US today.
So that was a start of Wall Street private equity firms
getting involved in the single family side of the business.
They historically weren't really involved.
It was mainly smaller mom and pop type of investors
that bought single family.
It was never institutions.
So that was their start buying these homes.
But these were already existing homes.
These were homes that were bought on a discount.
By 2013, 2014, they could no longer buy these homes
on a discount, but they still loved the model.
So what Blackstone and other private equity firms did,
they actually started partnering
with local development partners in growth cities
like Phoenix, for example.
Phoenix is really the ground zero of Build to Rent.
They started partnering with developers
in those local markets,
and they actually started building communities of,
as it's known now, Build to Rent
for the purpose of renting.
And that was really a spawn of this new asset class,
which is known as Build to Rent,
which is today fastest growing asset class.
So that's what we're doing,
where we buy a piece of land, get it entitled,
do all the servicing, start building duplexes in our case,
but you can also do, obviously, single family,
and for basically a rental pool.
And then we hold it for a few years
and then exit to other institutions
who wanna already built, already cash flowing property.
Some people argue this is causing the housing prices
to go up, and there was some effort
to regulate this type of housing.
What are your thoughts on that?
Yeah, of course.
So the bill, which is called Road to Housing,
bill that came out, actually Trump's administration
started that bill in partnership later on
with Elizabeth Warren.
So the idea was there was an attack
against institutions purchasing homes
and competing with everyday people trying to buy a home
and putting a roof over it.
Because at some point they were coming
into the residential market and buying the bidding wars
with everyone.
Exactly, and increasing prices.
No, on the single family side, absolutely.
So, and this was happening since post-08
that we just discussed, the story we discussed.
But yes, one of the Trump's initiatives
was to stop Wall Street competing with everyday Americans
who are trying to buy a home,
and the bill was supposed to,
part of that Road to Housing bill was supposed to put a cap
or put a restriction on investment firms
buying single family.
But when the bill got to, so there was,
and there was a carve-out for Build to Rent.
Because Build to Rent is a model that-
It's new housing, right?
You're actually bringing supply on,
so it actually helps with rents and helps with supply.
Because oversupply has a downward effect
on rents and housing price.
That's what you want to see.
You want to see oversupply, not like you see in Canada
where there's not enough supply online.
So there was a carve-out for Build to Rent,
but when the bill got to Elizabeth Warren,
her and her team, they actually eliminated the carve-out
and they included Build to Rent in the bill.
So the bill actually passed the House
and it was supposed to go to the Senate,
and that's when a lot of Build to Rent developers,
they got involved and they started lobbying
and they started educating the senators
and the members of the government to say that,
hey, this, that Build to Rent actually brings on supply.
So eventually when it did pass the Senate,
there was a carve-out for Build to Rent.
So there is no restriction.
The restriction was that any Build to Rent
community that's built has to be sold within seven years.
And any investment firm that owns more than 350 units
of Build to Rent has certain restrictions,
has certain issues with taxes.
But now, so, I mean, I'm a free market capitalist.
I'm a Milton Friedman type of belief
when it comes to free market always prevails.
But even myself as a real estate investor,
I had an issue with investment firms
going and buying single family homes
and competing with everyday people
trying to put a roof over their head
for themselves and their family.
But when you're building supply and bringing that online,
that has an actually opposite effect.
So what do you think of the rent price?
Do you think the rent is going up
or is it stabilizing here or they're coming down?
In some places they're coming down significantly.
Yeah, real estate is very localized, right?
So it's hard to paint it with a broad brush.
So overall, when we're talking about multifamily
and we're talking about Sunbelt markets,
because it's difficult to talk about coastal markets
or when we talk about markets like New York
or San Francisco or Miami,
rent prices have always been positive there over the years.
But in the Sunbelt, when we saw a lot of deals transacting
and a lot of supply coming online,
it had a downward effect on rent.
So the rent prices have been dropping
and have been negative for the last couple of years.
Now, they did go up post COVID or around COVID
in some markets up to 20% on a single year.
Historical rent growth on multifamily
over the last 50 years is around 3% a year.
That's what an organic growth on rent is.
That's without doing any capital expenditure.
That's without doing any value add.
Organic rent growth is 3%.
So when it went up 20%,
obviously there was room for some correction.
So we've seen that today.
Rent prices have been negative in a lot of growth markets
like the DFWs, like the Houstons, like the San Antonio,
even Tampa or other markets as well.
So there has been negative rent growth.
But I think long-term, the fundamentals are still there.
There's still demand for housing.
And the demand for rental has grown continuously
since World War II.
So when you look at the last over 50 years,
the rental pool, the people renting rather than owning
has been growing continuously for that time.
So the fundamentals are still there.
US is becoming more and more of a renter's nation,
not only because of affordability issues,
not only because elevated mortgage rates
and that comparison to your medium income
to a medium house price,
but you also have a new generation,
the millennials and the Gen X, Gen Z generation,
they're a very subscription-based generation.
And they're all very mobile generation.
So they want to live in Texas for a few years.
They want to live in Florida next.
They want to be very mobile.
This idea of owning their home
and living in a white picket fence for the rest of your life,
it doesn't sit with them.
They want to be mobile.
So they seem to be the generation that wants to rent.
They're also very subscription-based.
So they know that a portion of their income goes to,
for example, travel.
A portion goes to other means or their cost
or goes to their food.
Their portion of their income goes to rent.
So they don't mind being renters.
So we're seeing that as well.
So I think the fundamentals exist
for the demand that's there for housing.
So that demand always has an effect on rent.
So I think rents will go back to historic norms,
which is around 3% continuous growth,
which has worked over the years.
And I think it will continue to work.
What about the prices of a single family?
Multifamily, you think that we're kind of close to that,
close to the bottom somewhere around there.
It might not be the bottom, but it's kind of getting there.
What about the single family?
Do you think it's going to appreciate going forward
or do you think it would appreciate slowly
to catch up with the incomes?
Yeah, two parts.
I think on the single family side,
again, real estate is very localized.
So today we're sitting here in California.
So real estate prices are very high here
when you compare it to medium household income
and medium price for a home.
So it's currently not affordable to own homes.
So a lot of people, baby boomers that have owned homes,
a lot of times they don't have a lot of debt on there
and they're going to be passing that to the next generation
as they retire and move on or pass on.
There's $80 trillion of that money being passed
on to the next generation.
So the affordability issues will still be there.
Now there is a component where technology will improve more
and will actually have a deflationary effect
on cost of development.
There's a lot of great companies like Boxabl
where they're building these prefab type of homes
that might allow for the cost of construction to be less,
but land costs still there depending where you want to be.
So you're paying a premium depending where you want to be.
So a lot of moving parts there,
but you also got to keep in mind for larger developers,
if you can't build a product that is attainable,
you're going to have issues with surviving.
So there is a checks and balances
and there is a ebbs and flows
that values go through over time.
But at the end of the day, it's a commodity.
Housing is a commodity.
So if the price is too much, nobody can afford it,
that commodity is eventually going to come down in price
to make it more affordable.
So hard to answer your question
as far as where prices are going and values on single family
but I think it's localized.
In certain markets where there is huge demand,
you will see those prices continuously grow.
And in other markets where it's more affordable,
you might see more movement of immigration
and migration going to those markets.
August Biniaz, it was great to have you on Market Insider.
Thanks for having me.
Tell us what you think about the multifamily housing.
Do you think the market is reaching the bottom right now?
You can always tell us in the comments.
I'm Siamak, this is Market Insider.
We'll see you next time.