US and Iran reach peace deal | BBC News

Breaking news in the last few minutes. President Donald Trump announced the US struck a deal with Iran to end the war. On Truth Social the president's quote posted, the deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all. I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and simultaneously herewith authorize the immediate removal of the United States naval blockade. Ships of the world start your engines, let the oil flow. Well it comes moments after Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif also announced a deal had been made. Pakistan emerged as a key mediator between the two countries passing messages between Tehran and Washington and hosting regional powers. In his tweet the Prime Minister said following intensive talks we are pleased to announce that the peace deal between the United States of America and Iran has been reached. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts including in Lebanon. He added that the official signing ceremony will be on Friday June 19th in Switzerland. Mr. Sharif went on to say we would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. Mr. Sharif also paid tribute to other Muslim majority nations that had played a role in the US Iran talks writing we would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in this mediation, the great leadership of the state of Qatar for their support in reaching this agreement. I would also especially thank the visionary leadership of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Turkey for their immense contributions in this regard. The Prime Minister concluded on a logistical note writing with the agreement now in place mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony. Well we have team coverage on this breaking story in the Middle East and here in Washington from our North America correspondent and our BBC Persian correspondent. First of all let's speak to our North America correspondent Thomas Morgan to get the view from Washington. So you're down there Thomas at the UFC event, a big event for Donald Trump on his 80th birthday. What are we likely to hear beyond what he has already said on social media do you think? Well I think no doubt when he comes out he will be lapping up the crowd here and what a present really for the president on his birthday. He's been saying all week that the deal was almost there. He's been saying for weeks actually the deal was almost there. I think the questions at the start of the week and throughout the last week was actually is it going to get signed and I think the noises we were hearing from every side really was that it was closer than ever. We had top US White House officials saying the deal was 85% there on Thursday and Friday. We had the Pakistanis saying it was almost there and the Qataris, the two key mediators in this discussion and we also had Tehran at the end of the week also saying that the majority of the deal they were happy with they were just frustrated with certain elements by the US that in their words were changing at the last minute. But I think you could see increasingly over the course of the last two weeks and in particular the last week a frustrated President Donald Trump especially in his posts on Truth Social on social media. He was clearly getting extremely frustrated not only with Iran but also with Israel as well. He was getting frustrated with the fact that they were continuing to throw bombs at each other. Iran against the US military in the Strait of Hormuz but also Hezbollah and South Lebanon and Israel that conflict there. He was getting frustrated that those two things were possibly going to derail the signing of this peace deal and this conflict coming to an end. Even today actually a really quite a lambasting phone call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu where he was really angry with him for firing back at Hezbollah and Iran for strikes that have happened overnight and over the last 24 hours down there. But as you mentioned there really what this will mean is one what he said in his Truth Social post is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen almost immediately. The US naval blockade on Iranian ships there will come to an end and that will mean that the key conduit for 20% of global oil and liquefied gas will reopen and over the next few weeks and months we may see prices finally coming down and I'm sure the markets will be reacting positively tomorrow. The other things that will be coming out from this deal is that the economic sanctions on Iran will be lifted as long as they adhere to the deal and as well the nuclear question. That one is still going to be discussed as much as Donald Trump says that this means that there will be no nuclear weapon being able to be built in Iran. Those discussions are continuing and they will do for the next 60 days. And Tomas you are a big public event which is part of the 250th anniversary celebrations, the public gathering in Washington DC, the public generally have very much not been behind this war because we know rising gas prices, fertilizer prices meaning the cost of food remaining high. How much of a pressure has that been for Donald Trump? He hasn't actually talked about it much but we know that he does care what people think. Yeah I think you're right and I think that was another reason for the kind of the way that he was clearly getting more and more frustrated in his postings on social media on this issue. He recognized although as you say he never came out and said it in fact actually on the point of inflation itself I think it's interesting really on the day that it was announced that inflation in the US was rising at its fastest rate for three years he almost kind of laughed it off saying inflation is such a good idea but I don't think it would have been lost on him that when he called off strikes against Iran a day or so later the markets reacted positively and the price of oil did drop and that wouldn't be lost on him or his officials and I think there has been pressure on him. You mentioned there as well so many polls have shown that the public's confidence or the public's want and need for this conflict has never been great at all and they've always wanted it to end. It was a promise that there wouldn't be any more conflicts in the Middle East when President Trump came to office but that kind of is what happened so he was always under pressure from the very start of this war to bring it to an end. It has taken some time but it does appear so the fighting has now stopped but there is as I mentioned some certain negotiations continuing. Friday, Thomas Morgan, thank you very much. We're now getting some reaction from Iran. The Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Ghabrabadi confirmed the text of a memorandum of understanding has been finalized and the official signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding will happen in Switzerland on Friday. I'm joined now by BBC Persian shader Houshmandi. What else are we hearing out of Tehran shader? Presumably as America is they're casting this as a victory there too. Yes as we were expecting they have now officially confirmed the deal has gone through. The immediate reaction from people from many Iranians appears to be one of relief after months of conflict. Now you know when the fight stops and even if it's temporarily for 60 days it's being welcomed by many people that are sort of exhausted by the war but that relief also is mixed with anxiety because there are growing concerns that among especially amongst activists, journalists and families of those who were detained during the recent uprising and unrest that a ceasefire could actually be followed by a tougher crackdown domestically as we've seen before. So thousands of people as you may recall were arrested during the uprising and many fear that now the security measures and political restrictions could intensify rather than ease. But it's also important to consider that the tensions between Iran and Israel have not disappeared and as we are speaking even though there is a deal between Tehran and Washington there are reports that Tehran was actually seriously considering a military response to Israel's strikes even though Donald Trump made the remarks, spoke with media and also made the announcement on the truth social that this shouldn't happen and we've seen that three Iranian officials have told New York Times that they were going to do the retaliatory attacks but they somehow stopped it and this tension is always going to be there especially because in the eyes of Israel as well and no deal with Iran is a good deal so it will be interesting to see in the coming weeks that how different players in this tension position themselves and really if the rhetoric from the Iranian heartliners is going to change towards Israel and the issue between Israel and Hezbollah. Okay Shada thank you for now. Well Israeli strikes on Lebanon's capital on Sunday almost derailed diplomatic efforts. Israel's military confirmed at least three people were killed in the strikes targeting a Hezbollah command center in Beirut. President Trump condemned the Israeli attack and called on both sides to stop firing. Now we're hearing the deal does include Lebanon a long-standing demand from Tehran. We're joining me live is our global affairs correspondent Sebastian Usher in Jerusalem. So Sebastian we know the President Trump was very frustrated with Netanyahu and now we know that this agreement it's one of the few details we have at this stage includes Lebanon what's Israel likely to make of that? I mean that is very interesting that the Pakistani Prime Minister said that but it's all complex and essentially a cessation of the war in Lebanon. I mean Israel isn't a part of this deal. We've just seen in the Israeli media reporting that President Trump did inform the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the deal was about to go through. We also know that earlier today as you were saying that he had a very shall we say robust conversation again with Netanyahu after Israel carried out strikes again on the southern suburbs of Beirut which raised the prospect of Iran firing missiles again towards Israel exactly as happened a week ago. There were signals from Iranian officials that that might be coming so the first reaction here I think would be relief of those who are still awake that this isn't likely it seems now to be a night where people will be hearing the alarm and they'll be needing to rush to their shelters but I had a feeling with that strike even then and with the warnings that Iran gave that it would carry out attacks that that wouldn't derail the deal that it got so close President Trump wanted this so badly and it looked for the first time really that the Iranians did too that it wasn't likely to shake that off so I think the feeling here in Israel what we have had so far during the past few weeks when it's looked like a deal might be close is a sense that it's unfinished business not just at the level of the government at the level of the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the opposition politicians but also the public I mean that there is still I'm sure many correspondents have said this you know all this period that this has been going on that the Israeli public which is divided in many ways is relatively united on seeing Iran as an existential threat and Hezbollah as a lesser existential threat and that what Netanyahu's got wrong is in not again being able to live up to his promise that he made this time that there would be elimination of both those threats from an Israeli perspective a ceasefire now with Iran doesn't necessarily take away a threat that it still might hold for Israel we'll have to see how those negation those negotiations go how much all these issues get nailed down about Iran's nuclear program etc but I think even more so with Lebanon if genuinely and I there's a huge question mark over this because there's been no sense up until this point that Israel is ready to fully stop its offensive against Hezbollah is ready to withdraw from southern Lebanon that is a huge shift if that's the case and it's very early in this process at the stage of a memorandum of understanding rather than something that would be negotiated during the next 60 days or so if that is what is being presented is that if that is what President Trump and has essentially signed up to with Iran that poses a very big problem for the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he is essentially said that this is a war that is necessary for Israel but it needs to prosecute it according to its issues its needs obviously taking into account the pressure from President Trump the pressure from the US but still it is Israel's prerogative to pursue that war and from the opposition side here politically in Israel and we have elections coming up soon they are making hay of the fact that Mr. Netanyahu appears to have failed in this mission the one that he set out and essentially what we've had from two of the main opposition leaders setting out what he's done wrong in so many ways not starting or responding to Hezbollah by launching this new major offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon not moving deeper into Lebanese territory than Israel has for more than two decades but that he's stopping when it's unfinished business when Hezbollah still is a threat when there is just just now there are reports in the Israeli media that there's rocket fire that may have come close or even into northern Israel that is something that makes Mr. Netanyahu very vulnerable domestically here because he's seen as setting out as I say this big promise that he's the man who is able finally to eliminate that threat from Hezbollah if there's a ceasefire now and Israel does stop its offensive and it does begin to withdraw its troops many here will feel that that is a mission that that hasn't accomplished what he said it would and as I say opposition politicians will say if we were in charge of this our strategy would have achieved those aims it would have been far more practical it would be far better thought out not that it's wrong to have carried out such an offensive but it's wrong to have failed in it five days for all parties to toe the line a lot can happen in that time Sebastian Usher thank you for joining us from Jerusalem well let's speak now to Aaron David Miller he's an American Middle East analyst author and negotiator and a senior fellow for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace focusing on US foreign policy thanks for being with us obviously this is going to be hailed as a big success is it you know I'd like to break open the champagne bottles now and I think it's it's good that at least for the next 60 get 60 days assuming each side maintains its commitment that the shooting is going to stop tell me no more US strikes on Iran and no more running strikes presumably on shipping in through the Straits or on Gulf states but as a longtime negotiator you know I want to see the text and I find it quite curious this is a very interesting and intriguing process by which this has been announced I mean first you had the Pakistani mediator Qataris chimed in and the president went on social media then the deputy foreign minister apparently haven't heard any additional authoritative confirmation from the Iranians question is the text because every issue in the text including the confidence builders that is to say under what circumstances will the Straits be open and under what circumstances with American naval blockade be eased that's going to be proved to be a headache not just because you've got a thousand ships stacked up and shipping companies know how to do this what you can get a hundred plus through each day this is going to be a long-term process and if it's performative base that is to say if from the Iranians only get what they get if they if they do what they say they're supposed to do it's critically important I think to see the actual document um but again I don't I don't want to you know naysay this it's clearly a framework which will buy the time and space to determine whether or not all the loose ends sanctions are relieved unfreezing of Iranian assets what to do about the highly enriched uranium the 900 pounds what to do about the 11 tons of uranium enriched since Iran the US left the JCPOA what to do about mutual security guarantees and then what to do about Iran's nuclear infrastructure all of these things contain a universe of detail and a complexity which is going to have to be joined so again I think we'll see how the negotiations unfold and then of course there's Lebanon the Iranians did not respond when they said they would what price today extract from Donald Trump for staying their hand I think this will be an interesting question and of course the Israelis the Prime Minister is beside himself and according to reports has has asked for a urgent meeting with the president and you outlined some issues that have been of course huge sticking points not least the frozen assets also the the huge nuclear issue what do you think in terms of the detail that we may actually get on this there has been pretty scant detail from the Trump administration throughout this conflict do you expect to get full detail and if so what no I expect to see a text I'm reminded of the great Hollywood mogul Samuel Golan who said an oral agreement isn't worth the paper it's written where is the text and even at this late hour do is the Iranian and u.s. understanding of the elements on this one or two page page memorandum of understanding let's hope it doesn't turn into a memorandum of misunderstanding but again I I don't want to undermine what's what's occurred the good news is if it holds you'll get a relatively prolonged period two months you'll buy yourself time and space assuming Lebanon doesn't explode to test the proposition that the gaps on all of these issues which frankly it seems to me ours why does the Grand Canyon right now can actually be actually be bridged politically what do you make of the timing of this Donald Trump's 80th birthday today a big UFC fight at the White House he was clearly very keen to push this through he presumably wanted to make this announcement on this particular day I mean he didn't make he didn't make Sunday in Tehran but he made Sunday in Washington you know I was reminded of Jimmy Carter and the hostage release the Iranians willfully purposefully delayed the release of the Jimmy Carter was no longer president I had assumed basically that the Iranians were not going to give Donald Trump what he wanted they weren't going to give him a birthday present and they would have let this drift for a day or two but I think one answered unanswered question is what in fact if anything did the Iranians demand or ask the president in an effort to stay their hand and not respond to Israel's strikes against Hezbollah in the Dahiyan the southern suburbs and of course this this morphs into the issue again of the concerns of this Israeli Prime Minister nothing that he wanted with respect to the war objectives is going to be achieved there will not be restrictions on ballistic missiles there will be no cutting of Iran's relationship with its proxies the regime is harder line than ever before there's no regime change in Iran and frankly the notion that Donald Trump has taken the Iranians at the word that they will never have a nuclear weapon we've heard this so many times the Iranians have an enormous nuclear infrastructure they have scientific knowledge and capacity which frankly over time will give them the option should they choose to exercise it to assemble all of the elements of a weapon fissile material computer modeling the miniaturization of the warhead the delivery system and ultimately the testing I think this regime we've watched a transition from divine power domination by the clerics to hard power domination by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps I think this will only accelerate Iran's need for the ultimate hedge which is a weapon and yeah I'm interested in that what you mentioned there about the regime and that initially stated goal one of many stated goals at the beginning of this about regime change what do you think has happened to the regime from the beginning or before this conflict to where it is now that phrase that you use from divine power to hard power has it essentially become more hardline therefore more of a threat to the world I mean some would say that's not possible given the death to Israel death to America mantras and policies of Iran under Ali Khamenei but I really I really believe you know it's the the killing of Ali Khamenei the Supreme Leader and again I'm not an Iranian expert I don't play one on television or on the radio but it's clear to me the elimination of Ali Khamenei may well have been one of the more more transformative happened on the first day of the war February 28 one of them more transformative aspects of what we're watching play out the grass the glass has cracked you cannot have this kind of military deployment and strikes Iran is going to emerge differently the glass is going to be pieced back together in a different shape and Ali Khamenei's demise he was the key balancer he was quite cautious and risk averse when it came to confronting the United States we've seen none of that risk aversion from this crowd they've been very risk-ready striking Israel directly for Israel strikes on Hezbollah reaffirming the importance of their billion-dollar proxy being willing to confront the US naval assets in the Gulf so it's hard to say how this is all going to play out but I don't think Iran will emerge in the shape that it has been governed since 1989 by Ali Khamenei we'll see how we'll see how it all goes I I don't think we should expect anything like a transformation but I suspect over time things may change whether they change in a harder line direction or one that would somehow give voice to Iran's Iran's people's popular aspirations I doubt but it's something that we need to watch I think very carefully okay Aaron David Miller we appreciate your time thank you for joining us thanks thanks so much for that well we can go now to former NATO ambassador Kay Bailey Hutchison we can talk a bit more about the diplomacy surrounding all of this thank you for being with us ambassador first let me get your initial thoughts we heard from Aaron David Miller there and being a bit skeptical about the real value of this deal what is your take on it from the minimal detail that we have so far well as you said we don't know everything but it is a start and it certainly has broken through all of the stalemates and the delays and the missile strikes so I think it is a start at least we will see the Strait of Hormuz open which will ease a lot of the tension in the world but I think he was correct and we all are in the devil in the details and looking at what happens now and then what was in the language or what is in the language regarding the key points that have been agreed for the discussion and the discussion of the nuclear capability is key and all everyone that is in this is going to be looking at the verification part of the nuclear agreement when it is set ambassador this news comes amid an upcoming G7 summit of course in Geneva French President Emmanuel Macron says the summit will discuss the long-term reopening of the Hormuz Strait how do you think this is likely to go down over there because European leaders in particular have been fairly critical openly critical about this war in Iran and perhaps the days of playing nice with Trump maybe not over but certainly not what they used to be is this deal likely to decrease tensions in that summit do you think well I think the president will set the tone and so will the European heads of state that will be there at the G7 and then remember the next week will be the summit with all the heads of state at NATO and I hope it is a time for a reset because I don't think it is a cohesive alliance right now and I think we all know that there's been fire on both sides but the Europeans talk publicly about Iran in a different way from what they say one-on- one everyone knows that we needed to stop the capability of Iran to have a nuclear weapon especially after we saw that Iran has the ballistic missile capability that was more than any of us had known before so I think the G7 and the NATO summit this month will really go a long way toward putting us back together I hope into what everyone will do and what they think and and then will everyone be working together to assure that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon and that we have verification that we can agree is going to make sure that that is adhered to as the JCPOA did not. Ambassador Kate Bailey Hutchinson thank you for your insights on that and of course the JCPOA the Obama era Iran nuclear deal has been talked about a lot throughout all of this with Donald Trump being very critical throughout of that deal no real sense yet as to whether it can better that deal we don't know the details of any nuclear agreement that is this crucial 60-day period that would offer more on that let's talk more about the Iranian perspective joining me live now is Imran Bayoumi he's associate director with the geo strategy initiative of the Atlantic Council thanks for being with us Imran so how much substance and value do you think this agreement has from what we know at the moment? So I think it's has value in the sense that it's ended the war at this point it's a you know formalization of the 60-day ceasefire so we'll see that continue but like the previous guest said we still don't have details and those harder topics issues such as Iran support for proxies Iran's missile program and most notably Iran's nuclear program all those still have to be ironed out. Iranian state TV in hailing this is a victory how do you think they're likely to continue to frame what is emerging today? So I think there's some political posturing on on both sides I will say though I think the Iranian regime comes out of this conflict emboldened you know the supreme leader was killed on on the first day of the war but the regime has not fallen if anything they're more emboldened they're more hard-lined and I would expect them to continue taking that posture forward they'll be willing and assertive in the region and they'll look to to gain concessions that they didn't have before the war. Yeah what could that mean going forward you say that they're emboldened also they now have this key tool being able to close the Strait of Hormuz which we know is caused chaos to the global economy is that a tool that they could use again? So I think on on the Strait the question will be what kind of mechanisms are put in place to ensure it remains open and transitable you know previously we saw the UK and France discussing the creation of a multinational effort to keep the Strait open they said they'd be prepared to start that effort immediately once hostilities ceased and so I think the president President Trump that is will probably push for that that mission to start at the G7 tomorrow I would expect other countries to join that multinational force and that could limit Iran's ability to close the Strait again that being said they've demonstrated their the ability of their drones and missiles to wreak havoc across the region and and they could you know do that again if they feel threatened or or just want to cause tensions to increase. Okay I think we can hear from President Obama now obviously there's been lots of discussion about his nuclear deal in 2015 the JCPOA he was speaking to ABC News on Sunday and he said he doesn't think this deal would be much different to the one agreed with Iran in 2015 that agreement restricted Iran's nuclear enrichment program and enforced inspections in return for sanctions relief on Iran's economy. It is doubtful that any agreement that arises is going to be significantly different or a significant improvement from the deal that we had in the first place and had worked for for a long stretch of time before we the United States pulled out. Well let's go back to Imran Bayoumi thanks for staying with us Imran so President Obama there talking about the JCPOA Donald Trump loves the deal of course he promised he could get a much better deal than that one from how things look at the moment is there a chance of that? Again I think we need to wait and see what the details actually are like you said you know part of President Trump's challenge is selling whatever deal he arrives at as better than Obama's deal and it's a political calculation but also would help justify launching this war. That being said you know Iran now has leverage it didn't have it closed the strait it can open the strait at will and so expected to extract more more concessions whether that be sanctions relief or you know details on what exactly happens to the highly enriched uranium within Iran. Iran will certainly probably push for concessions it didn't have before. We're just going to read a post from social media from President Trump now this great deal will bring peace and security to the whole region many presidents have tried to make peace with Iran and all have failed before me the leaders of the region have for the first time found a president who can help them achieve real peace. He did call himself I think the peacemaker-in-chief at one point but obviously has gone into far more conflict than many people who voted for him would have liked. How much pressure at home do you think there was that essentially led Donald Trump to really clearly want a deal and is that something that the Iranians used to their advantage that sense that for them they could keep going because it's more existential and that for Donald Trump the political clock was ticking of course on November's midterms. So I think the the main pressure that Trump felt at home is actually on the economic side inflation is rising cost of living is increasing for many Americans and affordability is really a key message ahead of the midterms this November and so I think he felt more pressure to end the war to ease prices rather than from a position of American military weakness. That being said on the Iranian side I think while they saw this conflict as existential it would be a mistake not to realize that the regime is still weakened and still facing economic constraints all those headwinds that were present before the war still exist and if anything have been exacerbated and so while they saw this as an existential fight it's not that they escaped without any kind of hit or impact themselves. And what do we know Imran about what Iran might get for actually reopening the Strait of Hormuz one of the big criticisms that Donald Trump made of that Obama era deal was giving Iran cash essentially it wasn't that straightforward but that's how he viewed it. Are we essentially gonna see the same thing here? So I think Iran will immediately get it seems as indicated by the president in social media post tonight the lifting of the US naval blockade previously it had been you know mentioned that the blockade would be lifted gradually over a period of days the president said that would be an immediate lifting and then to your point I think the sanctions relief and is the really next big big topic so we'll see if the president allows Iran to sell sanctioned oil or if they just lift sanctions across the board. I would think that these would probably be tied to ongoing negotiations so you know progress is made on the nuclear file on Iran support for proxies on missiles we would see sanctions gradually lifted over this 60-day period rather than all at once so certainly I think Iran would push to have everything lifted right from the start.