Gold & Silver: The Final Crash Before All-Time Highs? (My Forecast)

Hey folks, welcome to verifiedinvesting.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist here. Now in today's video, we're gonna deep dive into gold, silver, oil, nat gas, maybe copper, platinum, and palladium. The idea here is to see where they stand. What are the forecasts? How have things changed in the last week based on technical and data analysis? And again, that's always what it's about, folks. It's about getting the best probabilities to understand the most likely outcome in the near term, but also in the long term. And as you guys know, I remain a huge long-term metals bull, especially on gold and silver, but that doesn't mean in the near term the prices are going to go up. So let's take a look at what we have here. Number one, we're looking at gold. You guys know my parallel here. This kind of gives us the worst case scenario for gold down here. To the upside, again, eventually I think we're breaking out, right? In fact, if you understand technical analysis, and when you have a down-sloping parallel, let me put that in for you guys right now. So if we have a down-sloping parallel like this, price, I would say about 75 to 80% of the time, eventually breaks out, okay? That's just the general probabilities that we always talk about in terms of understanding what the ultimate likely scenario is, but this is the kicker. Generally, it requires three hits of the bottom trend line. One, two, where's our next one? And that's what has me kind of a little bit on the fence here. As much as I love gold long-term, and again, how can you not when you're looking at the fiat currency fiasco, the debt fiasco of countries like the United States, gold has to be a place where you feel more comfortable storing your money, your assets, if you will. But having said that, it does concern me still that we could make one more flush out, much like Bitcoin is doing, to come down and take a hit of this trend line. All right, now again, what's interesting about that trend line is that if we look at this zone right here, right? What do we see? We see a trend line amongst those high pivots right in here. And if we extend the parallel there, look at that, right down here. And so this puts it into July. So basically a month, little over a month out that maybe in the next month, and wouldn't this be fantastic, right? Is that if we get in a scenario where in the next month we flush down here, absolutely you will see me buying gold in a major way. Because again, I wanna be clear on this. Just because the chart may dump out in the near term due to fear, due to liquidations, due to other factors, it doesn't change the fundamental aspect of the trade. And I think that's what most people kind of get wrong is that they're so focused on the, well, this is the thesis and it's still in play, so it'll go up. You're right, you're absolutely right. But it doesn't mean in the near term things can't occur that could cause a flush out. Now, the beauty of this chart setup is that we know if it fails and it doesn't take much for it to fail. So let's say it doesn't go down there. How would we know? Let's go back to the charts and take a look. So again, whether or not we come down to the third hit, that's again, the most likely scenario. But the beauty of this is if we break this trend line to the upside, then you have a breakout and we can start on our merry way to the upside. So again, based on where we currently are, it's really not that far away. We're currently trading around 4,500. We break 4,700, 4,800, game on, game on to the upside. Now, couple other things I'm watching here. Throw in your 50 moving average, all right, your daily 50 moving average. And I'm gonna even get rid of this parallel for the time being. Let's just focus, even get rid of this. Let's just focus on the 50. Notice what the 50's even telling us. The 50 moving average hits and hits and so far hasn't been able to break out. Now throw your 200 moving average on the chart. Hits and hits. And look at how these two trend lines are converging, squeezing price. And what this tells us is, remember how I was just saying that if we do see a fall in gold, it'll kind of get down to that level, that 3,500, 3,600 level here by July, sometime in July. Well, if we know wedge patterns as wedge patterns work, price gets squeezed, but then when it breaks, it has a major move up or down, we're likely gonna know the result of which direction gold is going by the end of July. Isn't that amazing? And again, you can really see in this chart, as I just clean it up a little bit, how the moving averages are even condensing and squeezing price more. So we can have the moving averages there, then we can throw back our parallel trend line here. Right, our parallel. There we go, my general rough parallel. And basically we now break the chart down to a point where if it breaks here, it's going here. If it breaks here, we probably go to all-time highs. If it breaks here, we're gonna go down probably to this level right here. You see that? And so this is, as a technician, how we have a step-by-step, a play-by-play. And a good technician, and by the way, I love that you guys, the kind words, the fact that so many of you have signed up for my premium YouTube, which again, it's more supporting my channel. If you like what I do, it's supporting it. But the more members I get, the more member videos I will do with major alpha, even beyond what I do in these videos. But the point is, is that we're creating a playbook on both angles, right? And so a good trader has to understand, and I understand this firsthand, is I'm not always gonna be right. I'm just not. You know, this might be the favored thing, but if it's 75% favored, it still means there's 25% of the time it's gonna do the opposite. And that's okay, because all I care about is being the casino. I wanna win more times than I lose. And if I can get that win rate up to 75%, there's nothing that's gonna stop me. All right, and that's the kicker. So again, that's what we're trying to point out here. That's what I'm trying to show you guys in this chart, how, you know, we have this bigger parallel, which gives us major levels on either side, major breakout, major support for a bounce, and that's where I'd be a heavy buyer of long-term gold. But also we have shorter term that'll tell us, well, okay, well now we'd like, we will go here and test this. Or uh-oh, we just broke this, watch out below. See how that works? Very cool stuff, guys. Very, very cool stuff. By the way, just a quick note. You guys know Rumble is my sponsor. Did you guys hear the news on Rumble yesterday? They actually are buying Nvidia chips and gonna start, basically they're pivoting the company to also move into AI and cloud and using cloud with AI, et cetera. And I just think that's so cool because they're smart. They're moving it, right? So they have a good core business, the Rumble network. And by the way, folks, I have my Rumble wallet right here where I buy and sell my crypto and gold, by the way. All right, not my long-term. My physical, obviously, that's not the case. But like my long-term, my shorter-term swing trades on gold, et cetera. Boom, Rumble wallet, check it out. All right, so easy to use, like so, so easy. You know, if you're like 65, 70, you can use the Rumble wallet. The link's below or scan the QR code. But the point is they're pivoting. They just had a deal announced where they're gonna be working with Nvidia. That's pretty darn cool. That came out yesterday, that news. All right, let's get into silver real quick here, guys, taking a look at silver. If we bring up the silver chart, I'm gonna get rid of the moving averages for the time being. We can always bring them back. Silver still, to me, looks bearish. Okay, why? Well, number one, you have this little mini head and shoulders, right? Shoulder, head, shoulder, okay? That at least tells us we're going down here. Number two, we had a move up and it fully got reversed. And then instead of bouncing back up, it's what is this pattern? Bear flag. Well, that's another bearish pattern. All right, then we also had this trend line here and it's broken. And look at how when it broke, it tried to get back above and couldn't, right? All of those are giving us odds. Now, remember, that doesn't mean it's a guarantee. It just means the odds are probably 80% or more that this is going down at least to 66 to 64. All right, now, eventually, do I think it's going to 50? I still think so. Again, if I'm wrong, so be it. I have my long-term gold holdings already. I would buy more 50 or sub 50, but no big deal. That's the beauty of it, right? All right, let's look at copper real quick and then we'll move on to some of the other ones here. Copper is getting squeezed here. Which way does it break? I think the odds, again, if we look at upsloping trend lines, which way? Remember, downsloping trend lines generally eventually break to the upside. They at least hit about three times though. So upsloping trend lines would eventually break to the downside. But the point is that that's not even a concern for us. All we're interested in is right here. Which way does it break? We've hit once, twice, three times. Again, upsloping trend lines usually don't break out because they're upsloping. It's the downsloping ones that do. I hope that makes sense. It gets a little bit more complex. But here we have a trend line. One, two, three, four, five hits. The odds are favoring a breakdown on copper. I would go in that direction. Again, with commodity members at Smart Money, Smart Money Commodities at Verified Investing, we are short the COPX. Look at this beautiful hit right here. It's already started to pull back. I think we're heading down here and potentially even breaking down more. All right, quickly, platinum and palladium. I have my buy levels already situated. My buy level on platinum here is basically anywhere between, we'll call it 1680 and 1600. Right down here, that's where I would start nibbling a little bit on that. And then palladium is getting closer and closer to a major long-term support, which is right around 1235. All right, if we look at oil real quick, let's take a look at oil. All right, guys, we have oil again. Broke its wedge pattern, big move down. Got a technical bounce. I actually think this is, again, maybe it comes up here to this resistance, but eventually it's going much, much further. At least that's what the probabilities are showing us. And the natural gas is an interesting one. It keeps trying to break out. Now it keeps on failing at this point. It closed above but didn't confirm. Now it's coming back in, but I'm keeping an eye on this. This is interesting to me. It's just keeping my attention. I had a trade on that gas where we were in here and we got out right around here, which was great with Smart Money Commodity members at verifiedinvesting.com. But ultimately, again, the question is, does it then create a breakout pattern for a bigger move? And I'll have to continue to watch that. All right, guys, you are amazing. Thank you guys so much. I always really try to give 110% on these videos because I know you're spending your valuable time watching them, and I do appreciate that, and I appreciate all the kind words, and I appreciate those of you that have signed up for the premium YouTube, which is just on this YouTube. Please understand, I don't have a Discord. I don't have a Patreon. I don't even know what that stuff is. It's basically this thing or it's verifiedinvesting.com. That's the only place that I have anything. There's so many scammers out there, so just be very, very careful, guys. Be very, very careful. All right, have a great rest of your day. Thanks so much for spending some of it with me. I'll talk to you soon. Take care.