SPECIAL REPORT: Will The Fertilizer Shortage Create A Global Food Crisi
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Approximately one-third (about 30%–34%) of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
With the Strait closed for so long now, there is growing concern there will be insufficient fertilizer for the Northern Hemisphere harvest this year (which contains 87% of the world's population)
Is another Arab Spring -- this time, worldwide -- likely as a result?
To find out, we talk with Bruce Sherrick, Professor at the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at Univ of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
#fertilizer #foodcrisis #iranwar
00:00 – Risk of Worldwide Food Crisis or "Arab Spring" Scenario
01:05 – Introducing Bruce Sherrick & His Expertise
01:49 – Thank You to Craig Wishner & Farmland LP
02:27 – Main Question: How Worried Should We Be About Fertilizer Shortages?
03:07 – "Pig in the Python" – Timing of Fertilizer Supplies Already in Place
04:07 – N, P, & K Explained: Nitrogen, Phosphate & Potassium Basics
04:46 – US vs Brazil Fertilizer Import Dependency
06:13 – Key Graphic: Fertilizer Supply Sources for US & Brazil
:06:30 – Russia-Ukraine War Impact on Black Sea Fertilizer & Commodity Flows
08:46 – Price Shocks from Tariffs + Hormuz Closure (Energy & Fertilizer)
09:58 – Has Russia Found Workarounds for Fertilizer Exports?
11:02 – Price Issue vs. Actual Physical Supply Constraints
12:52 – Northern Hemisphere Outlook for This Year’s Harvest
16:13 – When Should We Start Worrying About Southern Hemisphere?
19:05 – How Elastic Is Global Fertilizer Supply? Can It Ramp Up Quickly?
20:37 – US Natural Gas Advantage & Ammonia Production Potential
23:08 – China’s Vulnerability to Fertilizer & Food Supply Disruptions
28:15 – Red Lines & Developments That Would Raise Serious Food Shortage Concerns
30:24 – Food Insecurity: Physical Shortages vs. Price-Driven Hunger
36:58 – Optimistic Scenario: If the Strait Reopens Soon, How Fast Do Prices Normalize?
40:37 – Investment Implications: Nutrien & Fertilizer Companies
42:08 – Farmland as a Resilient Investment Asset Class
52:09 – The Agricultural Technology Revolution (Genetics, Robotics, Precision Ag)
1:00:35 – Where to Follow Bruce Sherrick & FarmDoc Daily
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