How ‘super’ El Niño could bring chaos to the world’s weather | BBC News

Right now, across the Pacific Ocean, something is happening that could change the world's weather. It's called El Niño and it's a global weather phenomenon that can reshape the weather, food and temperatures worldwide. Depending on where you are, it can mean devastating floods, extreme droughts, intense heat waves or raging wildfires and this year it's looking increasingly likely it's going to be strong, really strong. I'm Simon King, a lead weather presenter and meteorologist at the BBC. So let me explain how it works and what it could mean for us. El Niño is a natural climate pattern where the tropical Pacific Ocean warms up well above normal levels. Think of the Pacific like a radiator. When it's turned on, the heat transfers into the atmosphere, boosting the global average temperature. You might have also heard of La Niña and that's the cooler than average phase. We were just in that phase last winter but now the tropical Pacific is warming up very quickly and the latest data suggests we're already close to or even past the threshold for El Niño to begin. It can bring chaos to weather patterns all over the world and it's expected to keep building, peaking in strength later this year. So how strong could it get? Well, forecasters around the world use different models to predict El Niño and right now they're all pointing in the same direction. The Pacific is warming fast. US forecasters say that El Niño will officially form within the next month and by late autumn or early winter there's a two in three chance it will become strong or even very strong. Australian forecasters have similar predictions and European forecasters say that around half of their models show it could be one of the strongest on record. This has prompted some to call this a later this year. You'd have to go back over a decade to find a very strong El Niño in modern history. In 2015, 2016 and 1997-1998 temperatures in the El Niño region of the Pacific were 2.4 degrees above average and that's still lower than some forecasts for this year which are suggesting the average temperature could be between 2.5 and 3 degrees warmer than usual. The strongest ever El Niño is thought to be in 1877 when the temperature was 2.7 above average, though this was a very different era when there were much fewer observations. So what does it mean for weather? Well, this is the key and there's one region which can be hit most directly. No two El Niños are exactly the same and so officials say that the particular strength of an El Niño doesn't directly correlate with the strength of the impact seen. But we do know it's likely to have more of an impact to those regions around the Pacific. So flooding in northern Peru and southern Ecuador is common but also potentially in East Africa, Central Asia and southern portions of North America. At the same time, other regions get the opposite effect. El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic tropical storms which might sound like good news but for Central America that leads to a lot less rainfall and potentially drought conditions. There is a greater chance of drought and wildfires in parts of Australia, Indonesia and the north of South America which can damage agriculture and reduce global food supplies. It will depend on the eventual strength of El Niño but scientists are already suggesting that 2027 could become the warmest year on record. So how has El Niño affected the climate in the past? Well, the last El Niño in 2023-24 helped make 2024 the warmest year on record and during the last very strong El Niño in 2015-2016 that I mentioned earlier, there was severe drought in parts of Africa, specifically Ethiopia and the Caribbean. Increased wildfires hit Central Asia and there was a huge impact on food. The droughts caused by that El Niño a decade ago affected the food security of more than 60 million people according to the UN. Chocolate is one example where we could be paying more later this year and into next. After the last El Niño, chocolate got 15% more expensive because dry weather in Ghana and the Ivory Coast affected the coca harvests. Should we be concerned then? It's not just about chocolate prices. The impact of El Niño is already being felt for some. Forest fires in Indonesia have started earlier this year and communities there are especially worried that El Niño could intensify those wildfires, damaging homes, businesses and agriculture. And what's happening in the Middle East affects things too. It's already putting pressure on food production and agriculture. The price of fertilizer has increased and this will impact harvests in the coming months. So we could see reduced food supplies and higher prices. Sources have told me that there have been already lots of conversations happening to prepare for El Niño between UN agencies, international NGOs and interagency committees. For the UK, any direct impacts on our weather from El Niño are less certain. But climate scientists at the Met Office say El Niño years can increase the risk of colder winters here. Overall, we could be looking at potentially big humanitarian impacts through this year.