Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:26 Asymmetric Risk Strategy: Recapping the 500% Gain in Palantir (PLTR) 01:15 The IPO Trap: Why the SpaceX S-1 Prospectus is an Insider Exit Plan 02:12 Starlink Monopolies: Assessing Cellular and Internet Scale Potential 03:47 The Lockup Boundary: Charting the 6-Month Institutional Sell Risk 04:48 Niche Advantage: Shifting Focus to Small-Cap Space Infrastructure 07:21 Stock #1: Redwire (RDW) – The Picks and Shovels Space Infrastructure Play 08:33 Hardware Moats: Solar Arrays, Star Trackers, and ISS In-Space Manufacturing 09:07 The Backlog Engine: Analyzing the Artemis Program and NASA Contracts 09:54 Winston App Metrics: Deploying the New Growth Stock Filter for Underpriced Equities 10:43 RDW Technical Setup: Identifying the 46% Drawdown Rebound Boundary 12:01 Stock #2: Voyager Technologies (VOYG) – The Defense and National Security Pivot 12:48 Starlab Mission: Replaying the Airbus Partnership to Replace the Graying ISS 13:57 VOYG Chart Analysis: Targeting the All-Time High Resistance Breakout 15:10 Stock #3: Firefly Aerospace (Alpha Launch) – Small Satellite Transport 15:37 Eclipse Heavy Payloads: Directly Competing for NASA Moon Surface Drops 15:58 Growth Metrics Validation: Accelerating Revenue Curves and $300M Cash Buffers 17:01 Stock #4: Orbit International (ORBT) – The $13M Micro-Cap Asymmetric Bet 18:07 Battlefield Rugged Hardware: Display Controls for Satellites and Air Force Craft 19:09 Micro-Cap Mathematics: Why Single Hedge Fund Inflows can Trigger a 10x Explode 19:42 Capping Speculative Space Allocations at a 5% Boundary Limit 20:46 Outro
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Felix, a former investment banker, argues that while the SpaceX IPO is highly anticipated, retail investors may find better returns in smaller, listed \"picks and shovels\" companies. He warns that high-valuation IPOs often benefit early investors more than new buyers and suggests focusing on the essential infrastructure supporting the broader space economy.
But while everyone's obsessing over the SpaceX's IPO at about two trillion dollar valuation,
I'm going to give you four already listed space stocks that could deliver massive returns before
SpaceX even goes public. Because what you want to ask yourself is this, by the time the SpaceX IPO
happens, are the best returns already gone or is there maybe more in this? We're going to cover
that. My name is Felix. I'm an ex-investment banker. And in 2021, I bought Palantir at about
20-ish dollars a share and everyone else said it was overvalued. And that position is up,
I don't know, 500% today or something. And I'm not saying that to show off. I'm saying that because
I have a system for how to identify asymmetric opportunities, which means things that if they
could go up 5x, 10x. And right now, the space economy is setting up to be one of the biggest
wealth creation events of the next decade. But you need to know where to look and how to look.
I'm not talking about the obvious names like Rocket Lab or AST or something like that.
Everybody already knows about them. So we're going to go deep on those four stocks. We'll
also touch upon whether it's a good idea to buy the SpaceX IPO. And I will do something more for
you. I've actually put together a complete breakdown of the SpaceX IPO, including all the
stocks that we're going to cover in this. And you can download that for free because
there's a lot of information in this video. And I get that you might drift off after 15 minutes.
So if you download a document and you're somebody who can learn and read better from reading,
then go to felixfrenz.org.spacex. It's completely free, no credit card required or anything like
that. And it'll show you four space stocks that most investors have never heard of,
sort of undiscovered opportunities that could do really, really well if you know how to handle it,
and if you know how to handle the risk side of that. And that's very, very important.
But before we dive into those four stocks, we need to talk about, and there's timestamps,
you can jump around if you must, we need to talk about what's really happening with SpaceX. So
everyone's really excited about the IPO. It'll be huge. And I totally get it. SpaceX is definitely
the most important space company in the world. Starship is incredible. Starlink is printing
money. Starlink will be like being the internet and mobile phone provider for the entire freaking
globe. So that could be a $10 trillion company, right? What Wall Street doesn't really want to
know is that when a company like SpaceX goes public, the IPO is not designed to make you money.
It is designed to make the early investors rich. Think about it. SpaceX has been around for 20 years.
The private equity guys, and I know of some of them, they're already in there. They've made 100x
returns. 100x returns. So they put a million dollars into it. They're sitting at 100 million.
They put $10 million into it. They're sitting at a billion dollars. But the money is locked up
because it's not publicly trading stock. They can't access the money. They just look rich, but they're
not really rich, right? So the IPO is their exit. I mean, exit, that's exactly it. They're selling.
They're selling their shares to you. That's what Wall Street calls exit liquidity. That's what
they call you and me, the retail investors. And it's exactly what's happening with companies or
Uber and Lyft and WeWork. They went public at massive valuations. The insiders cashed out,
and then retail investors bled for years. And I'm not saying that SpaceX is a bad investment.
I actually think it's a very exciting investment. But let me show you what happens.
So if this is your timeline, this is day zero. This is the IPO. Excuse my handwriting. I'm
six months into it. Something called the lockup period ends. And I've been there. I've invested
in private equity, and then I did an IPO. And then what did I want to do? I wanted to sell
because I'd been in this thing for a few years, and I wanted to lock in my gains.
So what happens at six months? So whether the stock price goes up and there's nothing or whatever,
at six months, all the institutional money you can sell and wants to sell, they sell.
So you typically get a pretty big dip. That is the biggest risk. It is that six-month period.
Because in the first six months, you're not allowed to sell. Again, I've been there. It's
very, very painful because you watch the stock go up and then go down. It's very frustrating
because you want to sell. And then you sell on the six-month mark. And yeah, SpaceX fundamentals
are pretty strong. It's listing at like $1.5 trillion or maybe $2 trillion. So even if they
do everything perfectly, you're looking at maybe a 2x return over a period of time. It's just
solid, but it isn't life-changing unless you have a lot of money to invest. Now, the companies I'm
going to show you, these are already listed right now. So they've been through the exit pain point.
And they're companies that build the rockets, the space stations, the hardware that will power the
space economy. And most of them are valued at a couple of billion dollars. So if one of them
becomes a dominant player in their niche, this could potentially 10x, 20x, maybe even more.
So that's the difference here with very, very large companies where the smart money has already
made all their money, and then smaller niche companies where the opportunity is actually
greater. And these guys don't compete with SpaceX. They need SpaceX to succeed because SpaceX lowers
the launch costs. It opens access to space. It creates a foundation and the hype for the entire
economy. So SpaceX wins or the space companies win. So let me show you these four companies.
I'm going to walk you through them. I'm going to show you the fundamentals. I'm going to show you
the stock charts even. Don't be scared of stock charts. There's a lot of useful information in
there. But you're sitting there thinking, I would really like to have some 20 to 50x returns. I'm
not promising those. But if you want to know what drives a company to those returns, then I'm going
to teach you that. Not here, because if it takes me like an hour and a half or two hours, but on the
weekend, like for the first time ever, and probably the first time ever, and the last time ever, I'm
running a free workshop on the weekend. It's called how to find 10x return stocks or 10, you know,
multi baggers, as people call them. And I will literally break down Wall Street's rules for how
we find them, how we identify them. And it's pretty simple to learn. It's literally something you can
learn in like an hour or two if you join me live. So grab yourself a free ticket. There is a link down
below. I think it's called 10xreturns.org. And all you need to do is be on time, take some notes.
And if you're hoping for a replay, it isn't going to happen. I spent quite a few hours working on
that workshop already. And I'll do some more as I'm flying for the next 12 hours after this here.
I'll work on that because I want to make that really, really valuable for you. But stay sharp
for it because it'll be probably the last time we do that. And just having one of these 10xs can
actually change your outcomes and your life completely, which is the cool thing. So we're
going to look at four stocks there. I've put them on the screen already. I don't want to hold you
hostage. And let me walk you through one by one. Red wire is sort of the picks and shovels of the
space, kicker similar as RDW. And if you remember the California gold rush, you're probably not that
old. You never know. The people who make money were selling the picks and the shovels and the
miners. So red wire is that picks and shovel play. What do they actually do? Space infrastructure.
What the heck does that mean? Well, they built the hardware and the systems that make everything else
in space possible. So solar arrays, antennas, sensors, robotic systems, and in-space manufacturing
technology. So if you think about it this way, every satellite needs power. Every spacecraft
needs antennas. Every space station needs structural components, and red wire builds all
that. So they don't need to launch rockets or land on the moon. They just need space activity to
increase because everybody needs their hardware and their solar arrays. Or in the international
space station right now, they power the entire station. Their 3D printing technology has been
operating in space. So you can make stuff in space. They make star trackers, sun sensors,
composite beams, all the kind of cool stuff that every spacecraft needs. So why now? Well,
we're entering a period of massive space build-out. There's the Artemis program of NASA that needs
hardware for the lunar missions. The Department of Defense is investing billions in space
capabilities. Commercial companies are planning private space stations to replace the ISS.
And these guys are going to supply them all. So they've got relationships with NASA,
the Department of Defense, commercial space companies, and 60% of their money comes from
the government, which is pretty good because it's usually a pretty stable business.
Now, is it a good business? If we go into the Winston app here, named after my golden retriever,
and first of all, we look at all these companies here, and you'll see that they've all got pretty
poor scores. So every score companies have 100. Pretty terrible. Why is it so terrible? Because
it's very early. Now, because I realized that this isn't very useful if you're a growth investor or
a 10x investor. I'm literally, me and my team are building something like this right now. So every
growth stock, we'll have a little icon here that'll say growth, and you can hover over that,
and you'll see something like this. Because for growth stocks, really what you want to look at
is revenue growth. You want to look at, are they spending money on R&D? You want to look at,
are the insiders, the founders, the managers holding or selling the shares? Very important.
And how much cash have they got? So we're going to put that together for everybody.
And if you think that will be useful to check against all your growth stocks and ideas,
there is a free trial down below to the Winston app. So you can check that out. And if you don't
like it, we just cancel it. No questions asked. But I can tell you that RDW has revenue that's
growing. Pretty good backlog of orders. But the real catalyst will be companies like Axiom and
Blue Origin and Voyager and so on. They're building commercial space stations. And Redwire is likely
a supplier to these guys. So power supplies, life support systems, manufacturing equipment,
and so on. The NASA Lunar Gateway Station also needs infrastructure. Again, Redwire is competing
for those contracts. So they can get those contracts. That could be a really, really
big catalyst for these guys. And if you look at the stock chart here, this is what it looks like.
And you might think, oh my God, it's down. It's down like 46%. Well, the beautiful thing with
that is that going up another 80% is also entirely feasible. So why am I looking at this right now?
I'm going to look at this a little bit more on the weekend. You see this recent high? And where
we are right now, we're at the same level. So if you break out above that, that's a very,
very good thing. And then you're probably going to go up to $20-ish. And then you're probably going
to hit your head on that, bounce a little bit. And then the question is, are you going to break
out again? In which case, you might go much, much higher. But what I'm also loving is that
I can see institutional money buying this. We can see it. We can see it right there. It might be
hedge funds, whoever. It doesn't really matter. But I can see them buying it. And therefore,
that's something that I'm looking at. I'm not telling you to buy it. I'm not a registered
financial advisor. This is not financial advice. This is just me sharing my research with you. And
do please read the document that's attached to this. But this is a $2 billion company.
This could become a $20 billion company. It's quite feasible. It could become a $200 billion
company. It's entirely possible. That would be a lot harder for them to do. That's what we're
looking at. The growth stock card like this will be available hopefully today or tomorrow. So you
guys can all check that out. But let me talk about stock numero dos, which is Voyager, ticker symbol
V-O-Y-G. It's kind of fascinating because they're building what could be the replacement for the
International Space Station. So they're a defense and tech and space company. They operate
Defense and National Security, Space Solutions, and then Starlab Space Stations. So the Defense
and National Security stuff builds missile defense, interceptors, kill vehicles, hypersonic
missiles, radiation-hardened communication equipment, and so on, which is obviously getting
some real revenue right now, right? The Space Solutions part provides in-space propulsion
systems, infrastructure, all that kind of stuff. So the plumbing of a space operation. And then
there is the thing called Starlab. And Voyager is literally building a commercial space station
called Starlab in partnership with Airbus. And it's designed to provide continuous human presence
in low-Earth orbit after the ISS is decommissioned, which is planned for around 2030.
Why is that happening? Because ISS was launched in 1998. It's pretty old. It's been in space for
25 years. And NASA said, we're going to take it down. But NASA also doesn't want to lose access to
being in space. They want commercial companies to step in, and they want them to rebuild
the station or replace the station. And NASA has awarded commercial space station contracts
and Voyager Starlab is one of the leading contenders in that. So when the ISS goes away,
someone's going to fill that void. Voyager is positioning to be that somebody. And what I
really like about these guys is not only is their revenue growing, but because they have the defense
contracts, they're not burning through cash. So they can afford to do the space stuff because
they've got cash coming in from defense. Now, if you look at the IPO here, sort of what I was
talking about with SpaceX, and it might well go the other way, but they listed in June. And by the
time the end of the year came about, the company went down some 70-odd percent. SpaceX might well
be different because it is a very, very good business. But that's what I'm saying. Why do
people sell out about 120 days into this, trading days into this? Because they know about the exit
after six months. So people kind of panic and wait for that, and then it recovers. So often,
that gives you a nice entry point that might be lower risk than if you buy the IPO itself.
Now, if I look at the actual chart here, I've got a high here, that one. I've got a high here,
that one. And guess where we are right now? So we've done it three times. I've done bugger all
since mid-2025, or even mid-2025. So if we break out of this meaningfully, on the back of the
excitement around SpaceX, there is a very decent chance this stock could go much, much higher,
and we could actually reclaim potentially its all-time highest, which in itself will be about
80% up. And the business has gotten better since it listed. Now, if you think that the only launch
company worth investing in is SpaceX, and maybe Rocket Lab, you might be missing the one flying
under the radar, which is Firefly. Their flagship product is something called the Alpha rocket,
which is a small launch vehicle designed to bring small satellites out there. But they're also
developing something called Equips, a medium-lift launch vehicle that's going to compete in the
larger payload market. It's going to compete with SpaceX, and they've already been selected for
NASA missions to deliver payloads to the moon. And these guys went public, if you go back in time
here, quite a long way in time, at about $24. Right now, it's trading at about $43. But it's
been some serious ups and downs, as you can clearly see. And what do I see? Well, I see it actually
breaking out. I see it moving on up, so to speak. Each high is higher than the previous. Each low
is higher than the previous. And there is some serious interest right now in the entire space
sector, so it might be worth looking at. And why now? I told you we're going to put the growth
metrics live, right? We've already partially done that. And you can see the revenue growth there.
It's really, really, really accelerating. That's kind of what we're looking at, right? Okay, they're
spending less on R&D relative to revenue. That could be that they've already done a lot of the
upfront spending, because they've been around for a while. They have $300 million cash on hand,
which is pretty decent. So that kind of sort of qualifies them. And I should have mentioned,
these guys have landed on the moon. Seriously, they've actually landed on the moon, which is
pretty cool. So they can definitely build stuff that can land on the moon.
And the military, the US military, wants the ability to rapidly deploy satellites. So if
there's a threat somewhere, they want to say, I want a satellite up there very, very quickly.
And that's the sort of thing that Firefly does very, very well. Now, the next dog is probably
not one that you've heard of. It's probably not one that you'd look at even. And it's called
Orbit International, O-R-B-T. Let me just pull it up here. And the numbers don't look particularly
great. It's a teeny tiny company, $13 million market cap. And therefore, it sort of falls out
of the radar of what institutions are looking at. While it listed at $15, it's trading at $4,
it's total cash burn. But what I like, and we'll talk a lot about that on Saturday,
if you want to learn how to find potential tax, this is something that we like. Again,
I'm going to explain that in a lot more detail on Saturday. Essentially, this thing has done
bugger all since 2009. Yeah, and that's a long period of time to underperform. Definitely
respect it above a four. But because it is such a tiny company, and because Wall Street can't
really invest in it because it's too small, it is the kind of asymmetric opportunity that I
potentially love. So what do they do? Well, they design and manufacture mission-critical
electronic components, power units for defense contractors, government procurement,
R&D labs, a lot of stuff. And they have an electronic group, they have a power group.
So they built these ultra-rugged human-machine-interface devices, sort of keyboards,
displays, control panels that could survive battlefield conditions, airborne conditions,
space conditions. And they're used to military aircraft, naval vessels, and so on. They make
LCDs that you can read in the sunlight, which will be very cool. I can never read my laptop in
the sunlight. They also built highly reliable power supplies, all the kind of highly reliable,
uninterrupted stuff that the military would like, particularly if they're going into space.
So the aerospace contractors, the same contractors building satellites, spacecraft, electronics,
ground control systems, space-based military platforms. Well, this equipment that these
guys build goes into that. And we know the Department of War is increasingly spending a ton
of money on space-based capabilities. So the demand for these mission-critical, military-grade
electronic components will grow. And if you look at just the math, say they grow their revenue
from the tiny $25 million to $50 million, that's 100% growth. It's the sort of thing that could
make a stock like this on tiny volume. You just need one hedge fund to buy it, and the thing
could blow back up to $25 or something like that, in which case you would have made a lot of money.
Again, I'm not saying that you definitely will. This is obviously a highly speculative play,
but it's the sort of thing that makes traders money, but only if you manage your risk right.
So this has got to be a tiny position, otherwise it's lunacy. So if you compare all of these,
and we'll also talk about that on Saturday, if you want to learn the full framework so you can
find these yourself, RDW, medium risk, medium reward. Voyager, high risk, potentially high reward.
The highest risk of course is the smallest player. The lowest risk is RDW. It doesn't
mean there isn't risk in it, but it just means there is less risk in it than if you buy a micro
stock. How do you deal with this? Well, you've got to make a plan. You need to understand your
risk tolerance. You probably want to be in maximum 5% of your portfolio or something like that in
space unless you have very strong views on it. You want to understand what's the core stock,
what's the growth stock, what's for some of the catalysts that I mentioned, some of the contracts
coming out, SpaceX itself. Now, SpaceX is also going to suck up a lot of money. Think about it
this way. We're at the top of the market, massive rally. These guys are going to suck up so many
billions of dollars. Are people going to sell other things to buy SpaceX? That's a real possibility
that Wall Street's worried about. So you always want to have an exit plan. But fundamentally,
the space economy is about $500 billion a day. We expect it to be close to $2 trillion by 2035.
It's some pretty significant growth. That might give you a better visual here. So the winners
are going to do very well. And I think the naysayers on SpaceX are wrong. Yes, I think it
could get a very, very bumpy ride, whether it goes up or down, nobody knows. Six months into it, I
know a lot of smart people are selling. But if you become the mobile phone operator, and the
internet operator, and the data supplier to every business, every person pretty much on the planet,
and also get a ton of military contracts, because you've got more satellites than everybody else,
and therefore you have better data than everybody else, that is potentially the biggest company in
the world. And therefore, a valuation that is far beyond what an NVIDIA is or an Apple is,
is actually possible. So if you've got some value out of this, get yourself the free workbook,
the free research at FelixWendel.org.spacex. And then really the biggest investment you can make
at any time in life is in yourself and in your skill level. And that's why I'm running this
free workshop for you. It's the first one we've ever done. Last one I think we'll ever do. And
you will learn how to identify the kind of stocks that have the potential to 10x. And it's going to
be fun. Bring a piece of paper or a notebook or something. And if you've got some value out of
this, or you know some people who might get value out of the free training, forward it to them.
That would be the best thing you could possibly do, because then you are spreading the joy of
being a more skilled investor. And I thank you for watching. It is confirmed that Cuba has stockpiled
hundreds of attack drones that can reach US soil. And while that sounds terrifying,
there is an opportunity in this very strangely.