How Kalshi And Polymarket Are Trying Copy The Crypto Playbook

Prediction markets are expanding beyond wagers on elections, inflation, and sports. Now, one of the biggest names in the space, PolyMarket, says it's launching perpetual futures contracts, also known as PERP. That's a type of high-risk trade that has become one of crypto's biggest businesses. Unlike traditional futures, PERPs don't expire on a fixed date. Traders can keep positions open indefinitely as long as they maintain enough collateral. That structure has helped make PERPs one of the biggest drivers of trading volume in crypto, especially outside the U.S. PERP trading in 2025 grew almost 50% to reach $86.2 trillion in volume, and more crypto-native exchanges saw even bigger growth. PolyMarket's move comes just after a report that rival Calshi also has plans to offer crypto trading, including perpetuals. If this expansion continues, it could put prediction market platforms into more direct competition with companies like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Kraken. So this is no longer just a story about niche betting markets. It's increasingly a story about the future of retail trading, crypto competition, and whether prediction market companies can turn themselves into much broader financial platforms. The prediction market guys are saying, hey, where you're getting into prediction markets, we're going to get into perpetual futures. So it's a defensive move more than it is an offensive move, in my view. Now, PolyMarket is moving deeper into the kind of derivatives trading, where people make bets about what an asset will be worth later, that has long been central to crypto exchanges. Perps, which are high-risk, high-reward, have seen explosive growth since President Trump's return to office. Before that point, however, they didn't really exist in the U.S. That's why offshore exchanges like Binance and the now-defunct FTX became so dominant in the years before crypto became mainstream. Trump administration is famously pro-crypto. As part of that, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates futures products, said early this year that it's working to onshore perps, creating a bit of a land grab phase for PolyMarket, Kalsi and the crypto exchanges. It's worth mentioning that prediction markets in general are under intense scrutiny right now for a type of insider trading, where bets are being placed with allegations that the outcomes are being manipulated. Add crypto into the mix, and it's sure to prompt further regulatory scrutiny. If successful, though, the big question becomes whether these contracts made popular in crypto will expand to other asset classes, making it possible to trade perps on everything from the S&P 500 to coffee to Apple stock and creating more volatility in the market. And what happens to these companies if the strategy works? Do they stay niche platforms built around prediction markets, or do they evolve into something closer to full-service exchanges? I do think it's going to be very difficult for them because the everything exchange called Robinhood is a head start over them. And it's a much more holistic value proposition. You get equities, you get options, you get crypto, you get a little bit of prediction markets. And I think their ability or their knowledge and the install base of 27 million users is very hard to disrupt. For now, PolyMarket has made the first move. Kalsi has not confirmed similar plans publicly. Prediction markets and crypto exchanges are increasingly competing for the same traders, the same volume and the same role in the broader retail trading ecosystem. And if that convergence continues, the line between prediction markets and crypto exchanges could get much blurrier. Kalsi and PolyMarket did not immediately respond for comment.