China's Veiled Threat of Conflict Against US — Rubio Warns of ‘Terrible Mistake’ | TaiwanTalks EP833

Before arriving in Beijing, this was Marco Rubio on Air Force One. Listen how he frames Taiwan. He was asked by Fox News this. I want to get back to Iran in a second. Let me stay on China. Trade, tariffs, intellectual property theft, Taiwan, their help of Iran, I think, is part of it also. Yeah, all those topics will come up, there's no doubt about it. In the case of the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan and so forth, it's not in China's interest or anyone's interest for there to be any sort of force change in the status quo. I think stability there is very important. Rubio and a large part of the U.S. military and U.S. Congress don't think of Taiwan as China's internal issue, nor even a cross-strait issue, but rather as a regional one, with a U.S.-led security architecture emerging designed to deter China's aggressions. The whole world is watching, said China's leader as he met Donald Trump. But despite all the cameras, the biggest story was in the two sides' readouts coming hours after the main summit. The U.S.'s covered trade and investment, fentanyl and Iran. The CCP's main focus was the U.S.-China bilateral relationship and Taiwan. Here's Xi reinforcing the message again at the state dinner. and lose from confrontation. Our two countries should be partners rather than rivals. President Trump and I also agreed to build a constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability, to promote the steady, sound and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations and bring more peace, prosperity and progress to the world. And this was Rubio's response to that, speaking with NBC News after the main summit on day one. One of the things the Chinese emphasize, which we agree, is strategic stability in our relationship, a constructive relationship, but also one that establishes strategic stability so that we don't have misunderstandings that can lead to broader conflict. And so we always reiterate the point, we hear them when they say this. We always respond by saying anything that would compel or force a change in what we have now would be problematic. And we would certainly, our policies on that have not changed. We think it would be a terrible mistake to force that through force or anything of that nature. There would be repercussions for that globally, not just from the United States. And we kind of leave it there. After the summit, Trump declined to answer a reporter's question on Taiwan. And U.S. Treasurer Scott Besant told CNBC Trump would say China is seeking U.S. abandonment of Taiwan. But what would that mean not just for Taiwan, but for the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and its allies? Hello, and welcome to Taiwan Talks. I'm Inka Vatt. To discuss this and more, I'm joined by Andrew Yang, former Republic of China-Taiwan Minister of National Defence, from Washington, D.C. Jason Xu, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow, and back in the studio, Michael Chen, Democratic Progressive Party International Affairs Director. A very warm welcome to you all in the studio, as well as to Jason online. I want to draw our attention back to Xi Jinping's speech. I have agreed with President Trump on a new vision of building a constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability. This will provide strategic guidance for China-U.S. relations. I mean, out of all the things that we've highlighted in the opening, you know, what strikes you? What was the most significant for you? Xi is making clear that the issue of Taiwan is no longer a side issue. The issue of Taiwan is central to the relationship between Beijing and Washington. And I think you can tell from the readouts from both sides, the emphasis are completely different. Beijing's emphasis on Taiwan is everything to it. And it is everything that Xi Jinping cares and wanted Trump to make a statement on. Minister Yang, I mean, this just points out, isn't it, that the two sides do not agree, even on what they covered? Well, I think it is too early to interpret what kind of statements the messaging is. Remember, we still have half day meeting for two leaders, having tea and working lunch. And in Zhongnanhai, deliberately made a private meeting between two leaders. So could be more messages. However, those messages will not be disclosed by media or whatever. So we still have to wait for the following, you know, meetings between Xi Jinping and President Trump. And that's a very good point, Michael, isn't it? Because there has been no discussion, at least publicly, about rare earths. And this is where, you know, the one year moratorium that China agreed, US and China agreed, and therefore to keep those rare earths flowing to the US. So as Minister said, you know, is there still a lot of bargaining that needs to be done? But in relation to Taiwan? Some of the issues have not been mentioned, right? We don't know yet if they have been discussed. They may very well be. But it goes to show that US and China, they do come in with different priorities. China, it's all about Taiwan. And for the US side, it's pretty clear that it's really not about Taiwan. You know, you see the reaction when the reporters asking President Trump after their meeting, did you talk about Taiwan? And President Trump clearly heard it, but was kind of giving some non-answers, right? And he didn't look too pleased. And it's clear also from Secretary Rubio's interview afterwards, basically saying that, yes, well, the Chinese certainly raised the issue. We know what they're going to say. We know their talking points. We hear them. But they know our point of view as well. The Thucydides Trap is an international relations theory that says war will break out between an established hegemon and the rising power seeking to displace it. Xi Jinping chose to direct this theory to Trump at his opening speech at the summit. Take a listen. Xi also used his much quoted phrase, we are witnessing great changes unseen in a century. This marks the first time he has spoken it directly to the US, this time directly to Trump himself. Great changes is generally accepted to be CCP shorthand for the fall of the United States and the transition of power to China. So bringing Jason in, how did you read Xi Jinping's speech at the summit? Well, I think what Xi Jinping is trying to do is to trap President Trump in the equation of Taiwan that if Washington continuously to support Taiwan's sovereignty and continues to arm Taiwan, that could shift the balance and then change the dynamics of the relationship between Washington and Beijing. He's given Trump a pretty clear hint that it is up to you, Washington, to make choices to either avoid the war or to be on the course of collision. So Jason, your reading is not what some people have read that speech as. It's not a peaceful sharing of power. Let's move beyond the Thucydides trap essentially here means you, US, accept China's rise and move aside. He is bringing up the Thucydides trap because the two great powers are now getting closer to a collision course because of the choice that the two great powers will make on Taiwan. And I believe it's a change of a tone rather than adherence of the previous statements. Leaders in this type of setting, they don't use past patterns in order to tell them something new. They use past patterns to say if you change, and history would also change as well. And that's what Xi Jinping is trying to hint to Trump. Okay, let's listen again to Rubio on Air Force One before they reach Beijing. And they clearly view themselves, they believe they will be the world's most powerful country, they'll surpass the United States, and they have a plan to do it. And they're executing on that plan. And I don't blame them. If I were the Chinese government, I'd have the same plan. We, on the other hand, don't view it that way. And we don't want to see anything. We're not trying to constrain China, but their rise cannot come at our expense. Their rise cannot come at our fault. Minister Yang, so as you rightly said, we don't know the outcomes yet. There's still talks and meetings, and no doubt negotiations. But given Rubio's comments, you know, how would you think the US delegation privately be responding, reacting? Actually, Xi Jinping has more high-level statements, strategic statements. He didn't openly say, only reporters said he emphasised the Taiwan issue. But what does he mean by that? Whether he talk about the arms sales, or emphasising Taiwan is a red line, the core issue, whatever. So he continuously sending the messages that this is the area that the United States has to respect Chinese position. Secondly, I think the most important issue is that both sides, both Trump and Xi Jinping, agree that two countries have to re-establish more stable strategic relations. I think that's important. That's the kind of message we didn't hear before. Because if you look at the US National Strategic Report 2018, they identified China as a strategic competitor, and getting more confrontational down the road. But now, both sides consider they have to make managing the relations, enter into a more stable strategic relationship. So there has been a shift in Trump 2.0. I think that's important. Right. Michael, on that point, same theme. Now, we know that Marco Rubio is actually still sanctioned by China, as far as we know, it hasn't been lifted. And that was for his endorsement of the Uyghurs in Xinjiang, China's alleged abuses. What do you think was the real reason that Marco Rubio was part of this delegation? Obviously, he's Secretary of State. But was there another reason he's very important for his presence? I think on specifically the issue of foreign affairs and China, I think his presence showed that he is a big voice advising President Trump on issues on China. And I believe that he's briefed the President on the sensibilities of the issue of Taiwan, on what to say, what not to say, and why it matters. And again, a broader point, as you mentioned, he is Secretary of State. So actually not sending him would be the strange thing to do. I guess what I'm getting at, Michael, is he is known as a China hawk. Of course. And perhaps we can think of Donald Trump as being a China dove. So is that a deliberate positioning balancing of the delegation? Perhaps. But I think Rubio's presence in there is natural. There are other China hawks within the delegation and within the government as well. Hexef is one of them. Other NSC officials among the entourage as well. I think, look, certainly Rubio is definitely a bigger China hawk. I think he's been able to brief and inform the President of the sensibilities of the issue. Okay. Now, we understand from reporting that Xi Jinping and his cabinet will have pressured Trump and the U.S. delegation during this trip to reduce U.S. support for Taiwan in the form of U.S. arms sales and in the form of perhaps altering official U.S. language on Taiwan from not supporting independence to opposing independence and from supporting peaceful resolution to supporting peaceful reunification. Now, let's go back to Xi's comments reported by Chinese state media. So considering that language, would you consider that language to be a threat, essentially? You know, you're talking about handle this carefully or face war. I think it's pretty decisive, the tone of the seriousness of the tone that has shifted from the previous meetings to the level of alert that was issued during some of these readouts. I feel that Xi Jinping has seen the U.S. support to Taiwan's sovereignty growing and to becoming a red line. And U.S. continuously selling arms to Taiwan, the militarization of the Taiwan issue and the internationalization of the Taiwan issue are probably the two biggest red lines in Xi Jinping's mind. And Xi Jinping is showing a clear red line on this. And by using a either or scenario and to President Trump, and it's a very clear message. And I feel that is going to be embedded in the terms that President Trump and Xi Jinping would discuss among some of those trade deals as a trade-off. On what ground that Trump might make his concession, what I worry is if Trump, after returning from Beijing, announced the delay of arms sale in order to curry the favor of making an invitation for Xi Jinping to visit the White House of Washington, D.C. Minister Yang, do you share that concern? I mean, what does the impact of delaying a U.S. arms sale, what signal does that send not only to Taiwan, but let's talk about that the Indo-Pacific, let's talk about the first island chain, which is the architecture that the U.S. is setting up, is building and growing with allies. What sort of message has it sent? I don't think it's going to be very soon that Trump government is going to change its positions. Why? Because it requires a lot of mutual discussions and working levels and proactive actions. I think the summit itself is particularly emphasizing on messaging. Xi Jinping has to make abundantly clear his positions. Equally, U.S. has to make its positions, re-emphasizing U.S. one-China policy. But the question is, if they are willing to build a more stable strategic relations, and let's start from there, and taking the time to be more actively engaging each other. Remember, Trump has invited both Xi Jinping and his lady to visit the White House in November 24th. So they still have some timeline to make efforts, how to add in more useful elements to stabilize both relations in the future. Right. In terms of the ongoing negotiations, and as Minister said, that it will probably continue into November, Michael, how much leverage does China have or is it willing to bring in any changes that it requests from the U.S.? I mean, we spoke briefly about the rare earths. They simply have a stranglehold on this. Well, certainly there's the rare earths issue. There's also the issue about Iran, supporting Iran. China has said that it does not support Iran. But of course, it's also said it does not support Russia with weapons. And guess what kind of weapons show up in Russia? Chinese technology, right? So there are certain issues that China is holding leverage over the U.S. Of course, the purchase of goods, soybeans, airplanes, etc. But I think both sides hold leverage with each other. It's not going to be China holding all the cards. Right. And can you briefly tell us, you know, what is, it seems like semantic changes. The difference between does not support and oppose. Why is this, however, critical that it must, the language must stay the same? Of course, it's a nuance. And one that I hope President Trump's been briefed on, of course, does not support and oppose. They sound similar. But saying overtly that the U.S. opposes Taiwan independence carries a stronger meaning. And it's exactly what the Chinese have been wanting President Trump to say. So President Trump, if he were to say that, would signal a big concession. And, you know, it would be considered a little setback. Indeed. Right. Okay. Jason, it has been reported that allies have been watching this summit very carefully. I mean, I wanted to ask you for allies like Japan, perhaps even Australia, what scenario would worry them most? Is it super friendly U.S. and China, or is it super hostile U.S. and China relationship? We don't know the details of what's been discussed behind the doors yet. But I think overall defense posture and security architecture in the region is quite solid. And that's why Secretary of War Heckseth is there to ensure that the U.S. military presence and military posture is grounded and is stable in the region. What Japan might be watching closely is how China's leverage could gain an upper hand or advantage on some of the issues that U.S. is weak to Beijing. And that's something that's worth paying attention because if it further turned into a choke point, U.S. might be distracted or, again, might be catering to demands of Beijing. That could also mean that the regional stability can also be affected. For Taiwan, probably the biggest issue, as Michael has pointed out, is this language change. And it is affecting the psychological level and political level than the actual policy level. I don't personally believe that U.S. policy would change overnight. But the fact that Beijing could influence U.S. president to even state a different policy off the cuff, I think it's worrisome to many. Minister Yang, how dangerous is a G2 architecture, just U.S. and China? I think the concern from the allies of partners in the Indo-Pacific region is to focus on what kind of agenda setting for Xi and President Trump, because they are going to meet again in September. And this meeting has to reactivate U.S.-China proactive engagement to smooth out of the differences. That doesn't mean they want to make concessions with each other. But they have to find ways to make common grounds that can benefit both countries. That is the objective. So everybody is watching what kind of common grounds that U.S. and China is going to deliver. Because it never happened before. Because we always, we see all the time that U.S.-China is confrontational in a collision course. But right now, two leaders meet with each other. They agree to find common grounds in managing the U.S.-China relations. What does it mean? So that is the focus for regional partners, friends and allies. Michael, final question to you. Taiwan has come out and said that the most destabilizing force is China in the Taiwan Strait. Do you believe at this time, from what we've seen, is Taiwan safer, less safe, or just the same? I think more or less just the same. We'll have to see, of course. As the minister mentioned, there's still half a day of the meetings. We could have forthcoming statements that could have a big impact. Of course, we have the pending arms sales package with President Trump. I think overall, there's been reason for Taiwan to worry. There always is with these kinds of meetings. And there's a whole realm of possibilities. President Trump coming out to say we oppose Taiwan independence and signing a big economic deal is a possibility. But I think it's always been one of the less likely outcomes. And indeed, we've seen from this meeting so far that that has not been the case. So I think Taiwan can, you know, there was never really reason to be overly worried. But yes, I think we can breathe a little breath of relief, I should say. Okay, we'll have to wrap it up there. Thank you so much, Andrew Yang, Michael Chen, and Jason Xu from DC. Thank you so much for joining us. If you liked our show, please search for us on YouTube. Give us a thumbs up and hit subscribe to our channel. Thank you for watching the show today. Stay safe and see you next time.