This Super El Niño Just Got Stronger...

The latest models for El Nino just came out and they have exploded. That means big ramifications for the 2026 hurricane season, potentially even bigger for the upcoming winter of 2026 into 2027. I'm first going to show you the models when it comes to El Nino itself. Then I'm going to break down the possible impacts of this hurricane season and look way ahead into that upcoming winter, because there is a gigantic signal on who sees the most moisture in the United States for the winter of 26 into 27. I'm going to look globally toward the end of the video. There are the sea surface temperatures, no more blue. The orange has taken over the above normal sea surface temperature anomalies. That is where we are looking to characterize the El Nino. Now, before we get into the models, and I'm promise I'm going to get to those quick, I wanted to just add some perspective here and show you exactly what we're looking at by adding the perspective. So the strongest El Nino on record in the modern era, 2015, 2016, 2.75 degrees Celsius above normal. That's the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, just off the coast of Peru. One of the most impactful El Ninos on record, 97, 98. That was 2.4 degrees Celsius above normal. Look at this. All of these lines represent a different member of the European ensemble group. And you see here, there is the two degrees Celsius line. Here is the three degrees Celsius above normal line. The strongest on record going back to the late 1800s was about 2.78. Most of these lines are above three degrees Celsius, which would put it as the strongest El Nino going back to the late 1800s. So this has the potential to be significant. I know what you're thinking, the spring predictability barrier. A lot of times these models overdo in incoming El Nino. I would say you are correct. But the one thing that we've been doing a lot on this channel is not just looking at the models, they are guidance, not gospel, but looking at the ground truth. We've been following this warmth bubble, if you will, that has been starting off in the Western Pacific and then working its way over to where it is now. It has been rivaling that of the 97, 98 El Nino. So let me show you a couple of things here. This is a cool plot here on cyclonicweather.com. This is the surface up top. This is back towards Australia. This is South America over here. This is Central America, where I'm drawing the little telestrator in the upper right hand corner. All of that orange at the sea surface means that, of course, we are warming the water and we are well on our way to officially being in an El Nino. I think the crazier thing is this. This is now the plot below the ocean surface. The surface is at zero. That's 100 meters beneath all of this. 100 meters beneath the ocean surface. There's the scale. Five to six degrees plus above normal, just below the surface. All of that is working its way to the surface. And as it does so, will just explode in terms of the El Nino getting started in the very, very near future. The other thing that I want to point out here, just again, is something that we've been watching. Not only is this warm way above normal, potentially record warm in this area. It's also much deeper than it's supposed to be as well. So this dotted line represents the 20 degrees Celsius isotherm, where 20 degrees Celsius typically resides beneath the ocean surface. Well, this black line is where it actually is way, way deeper than it should be. So there's a lot of way above normal warmth, deep warmth that is just being thrust into toward the ocean surface as the trade winds continue to weaken and allow that bubble of warmth to slosh back toward South America. So that is kind of the ground truth to what the model is saying in terms of the hurricane season. We have long documented that typically documented that typically the Atlantic hurricane season is quieter. It does not mean less impactful. And I think this map kind of shows it perfectly. So this is the European forecast when it comes to the density of tropical systems developing globally. In the blue here, that is below normal development. That's most of the Atlantic. Here's the United States. We do have that peach color, though, close to home. Usual expected value. So while in that main development region in the Caribbean, it is below normal, the opportunity will still be there for homegrown storms. So it is important to know that just because it is likely going to be a quieter season in the Atlantic when it comes to the name storms, it does not mean less impactful. I always use 1992 Hurricane Andrew as an example of that. Michael, in 2018, both of those were in El Nino years. Look at the red, though. That's the eastern, eastern Pacific, western Pacific. The density is expected to be way above normal on that front. In terms of the numbers, the European model is predicting 12.9 storms. We'll say 13. The average is about 14 and a half. So below normal in the Atlantic. But both of these guys, the green is the green bars of the forecast. 17 versus 15 and then 23 versus 21. So an above normal season in the west, above normal season in the eastern Pacific, typically when one basin is active, the other basin is quiet. You really can't do dynamically having two basins shooting up these dynamic storms like that. They shear each other off. And that's just not how the circulation kind of works. So that is something to keep in mind as well. With a supercharged Pacific, that is just more argument again for a quieter Atlantic hurricane season brought on by more wind shear. Doesn't mean it's less impactful. It's just quieter in terms of the number of named storms, something we are watching. El Nino winter could be a wild one. The green here on this map represents above normal rainfall. This is your typical El Nino pattern. I wanted to show you this first because the subtropical jet stream is very active in an El Nino winter that brings Pacific moisture through California, through the plains, through parts of the southeast, the desert southwest, into the northern tail of the mid-Atlantic. Gigantic signal that that is something that is actually going to happen. So let me pull out this long range climate model. And again, these take it with a grain of salt, but it matches up again with climatology. And it's crazy to see a signal this strong. The anomaly so strong this far out. So this is for December of 2026. Way above normal rainfall here. Again, the chart is on the right way above normal rainfall to Florida in the southeast. Big, big calling card of El Nino. That also means the higher potential for severe weather in Florida specifically and in parts of the extreme southeast during a strong El Nino. We typically look for a rough, severe weather season in November, December, January, February, early March. So that's something that we're going to be watching very closely. I mean, a long way away. I have to get to hurricane season first. There is January of 27. The signal grows in Florida. Very wet in California. Beneficial rain across south, southern plains, desert southwest and across the north Gulf Coast. So again, it is the potential to be very, very busy winter and then drier through parts of the Appalachians and west and the Pacific Northwest. Also calling cards of an El Nino winter. Globally, we're looking for some really ugly impacts. South America, of course, with the warm water sloshing back toward us. There are gigantic impacts. Of course, the fishery collapse is one of most concerned dead fish. This is how El Nino and El Nino were first discovered in the first place, even before satellites and thermometers and all that. Fishermen found out that, hey, these fish are dying. What is going on here? And every now and then the water would warm up like crazy and kill the fish. That was El Nino. It was discovered around Christmas. So it's it's called the Christ child, the little boy. So that is where that came from. If you were unaware of El Nino history, this typically means flooding in Peru, Ecuador, North Chile, North Chile. And then on the opposite side, southern Brazil, northern Uruguay get rain and then the Amazon are involved in a pretty ugly drought. Now, for Australia, it's opposite here, at least in terms of the rainfall. We are losing that bubble of warmth that has been kind of pushed towards our coastal area as that warmth goes away towards South America. The convection, the thunderstorm pattern changes. Drought is allowed to develop. That obviously increases wildfire risk. And when everything is dry, record heat waves are going to be possible. So if, in fact, this El Nino comes in as strong as it looks like and it is just doubling down, tripling down, quadrupling down because we've looked at this now since the last six months. So we are into the sixes about doubling down. It has not backed off. It has gotten stronger each time. And we have the ground truth or the ocean truth, as I just showed you, to break down how strong this thing can be. And it's just kind of unknown, especially with a warming climate. And by the way, I would not be surprised if twenty twenty seven pegs the warmest year on record for Earth globally as well as El Nino is going to put a lot of heat back into the Earth's atmosphere. All righty, guys, if you made it to the end of the video, I appreciate it. Please hit that thumbs up button. Hit that height button if it comes up as well. And if you have found this content helpful and want to stay updated as El Nino no doubt comes into play very quickly. Do me a favor. 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