Big Opportunity Ahead 🚀🔻 Lightning Round

We're going to talk about money flow going into the close of today to get clues on what's going to be working well next week, specifically Monday. I'm going to be doing a lightning round of stocks that you're going to want to hear my technical inputs on Google, Amazon, NVIDIA, Morgan Stanley, and a handful of others and see as many as I can actually get covered. And I want you to answer this question for me. Two hundred and three. Why do I think the number 203 is the most important price point on wall street today? If you have any idea what I'm talking about, let me know in the comments section, welcome to wall street. This is the stocks with Josh show. Appreciate you joining me. Please take a minute, engage the video, drop a heart in the comments, hit the like for me. And if you need to learn the technicals to better take risk on wall street and hit the subscribe, because every single one of my shows is a technical class. Thank you for joining me today. Let's dive right into institutional money flow. I specifically look at option flow. I've got a proprietary built tool that shows me what's going on. I'm going to take you into that and we're going to look for clues on what's going to happen next week. Let's read the headline. Institutional buyers aggressively accumulate broad market calls via C M E and tech sweeps, despite elevated bearish hedging inequities. And we're seeing millions of dollars. 80 to $130 million flowing in each and every day. And so that is something that we've been talking a lot about. Despite that, when you go into the bearish flow, you still see Morgan saying repeat flow, repeat flow, repeat flow. So there's still concern regarding Morgan Stanley. Now the bulls and the bears fought over this market all day long. And throughout the day, at some points there was bullish flow and at other points there was bearish flow. But as we got into the close, I want to point out to you that the bears clearly won Friday, the market ended with 19 for the hedge and 11 for the bullish flow. Microsoft and Tesla saw a lot of protection. Let me break that down across the board between bullish and bearish positioning. There was unanimous bearish positioning on Microsoft sort of sad at this point, because a lot of us were hoping for a much bigger move on Microsoft still potentially ahead. I also saw the bulls and the bears fighting over the direction of Tesla next week. And for most of the day, the bears seemed to be hedging, but there was a swing. And at the tail end, people started putting some position on for Tesla. So I'll tell you that I don't believe we have clear direction for Tesla next week. We got to watch the price levels that I give you guys. I would say right now that Microsoft ended this week as far as money flows on a very bearish note. All right, let's quickly start the lightning round of stocks that I want to talk to you guys about. I want to show you the Morgan Stanley chart. I want to remind you that last time I talked about this, we saw very heavy bearish flow into Morgan Stanley. Now to that point on the day I alerted it and the following day, it moved up slightly and then it dropped a solid $10. Okay. And so if you had entered puts the first day that I talked about it, or the second day that I talked about it, you definitely got into profit and you can do one of two things. You can take that profit. If you see green, you can lock it in, or you can put in a stop loss at breakeven to protect your capital. Now, having said that Morgan Stanley in the last couple of days had a swing back up, this is still a bearish setup when you're considering candle theory. And so the point of this video is to just say that I still think that Morgan Stanley is sort of in danger of a sell-off. However, you've got to manage your own trade. And typically when I bring something to you does what I am suggesting it's going to do, but sometimes people are expecting a bigger move, more money. And so they don't manage their trade. Morgan Stanley, we're seeing repeat bearish low. So for the time being, it's still looking bearish. Now, at this point, if it does have another move up, that would be a position to potentially short it again. Ultimately, I think the entire market that we're in, as I said at the intro is sort of looking like we're getting that blow off top, but it hasn't blown off yet. How do we know when the market has a blow off top? It's got a big wick at the top of the candle showing sellers coming in at the moment, the market is still fighting aggressively between the bulls and the bears and the bulls are winning. So timing that bearish position is extremely dangerous right now. However, there are some stocks that I think are getting extremely close to being in that perfect spot for potential reversal. Let's talk about a couple of bearish stocks that I like right now, but are almost at their bottoms. Roblox, RBLX, Roblox is potentially nearing a bottom. I think we could have one more leg down on Roblox and that would be a nice buying opportunity. DraftKings seems to be in a very similar position. They also have some potentially negative bearish news because the Polygon market is eating their lunch as well as the fact that the states are trying to cut into their profits. And that thing has been absolutely cut in half. And I think it's getting ready to get attractive, possibly next week. Keep an eye out for both Roblox and DraftKings. And then I've got to highlight Google. Now, Google is having an incredible run, and I don't think the run is over, but I want to talk to you about the psychological level of 400. I think it's going to be a brick wall. Even if price were to climb above 400, the moving averages and the price acceleration to the upside has been so significant, I think it's going to prove to be an area which is a barrier rather than an area of continued price expansion. So I'm going to be watching Google very carefully throughout next week for an opportunity to short it at that critical level of 400. But remember, we don't have the blow off of the blow off top, and Google hasn't gotten to 400 just yet. So keep it on your radar. I wanted you to know what I was thinking. And in that same breath, Amazon at 300 also seems to be a level that I think we will see a retreat from. And to that point, I also am going to talk to you guys about Intel today. This stock, people are asking whether it's time to load in, whereas to me, the run up has not gone up in a way of building structure as it's progressed, which simply means that when we do face a reversal, there's very little support for it. When it begins to step down, it's basically taking the elevator up, and I think that the shareholders are going to get pushed off the cliff and are going to fall very quickly. There's not a lot of structural support on Intel, the VIX, which I might save for another day, but I'll just tell you, go check out monthly candles on the VIX, V-I-X. This measures fear in the market, and we're getting something a little doji many times before has been a point of reversal. Typically, it's preceded a more volatile period. So watch again for the next couple of weeks. Now, you've heard the phrase sell in May and go away. Was this the first day of May, the last day of a solid run and push up? Could we push up into Monday or Tuesday and quickly collapse through the rest of the month of May? These are concerns that we should all be considering as we're looking at our portfolios. Definitely going to be a lot of opportunity to sell this market short, and I've already identified for you guys with Google at 400 and Amazon potentially at 300, that that could be setting up for the perfect spot to sell this market short. Now, I referenced the number 203. Why is 203 so important to me right now? Well, the number one driving factor for this market is inflation that's not raging out of control, the potential for peace in the Middle East and the unstoppable A.I. story as reflected in the NVIDIA chart. Two hundred and three dollars is the last highest closing price on the higher time frame for NVIDIA. If we cannot get above 203 and close a candle, then the A.I. story seems to be pulling the rug on this potential up move. And so I want you to watch that level very carefully. Let me show it to you in the chart. OK, it's the monthly candles we're looking at. And it was back in October of twenty twenty five. We have still not closed a monthly candle above two hundred and three dollars. Now, last month was pretty bullish, but you can see that we have been slowly cooling off here in the first day of May. And this is where if this market's going to continue to run, I think A.I. has to be part of that story. It's one of the most important legs of the bullish market, and we need to see NVIDIA recover to three very, very quickly. And if we see that, then I would say that honestly, no up move on this market would surprise me. Let me repeat that. If we see NVIDIA begin to rebuild from here, no up move on this market would surprise me. We would see, like I've said, Google four hundred, Amazon three hundred and NVIDIA pushing back up to ten to twenty and the market would be strong next week. But if we continue next week to retreat on NVIDIA, then we are going to be looking at more of a cool off. My bullish animal spirits are going to be tamed for the time being. All right. Let's talk about Intel real quick. I want to break down to you this stock hit one hundred dollars today. We bought into this stock and I called it out into a huge potential move up at the beginning of twenty twenty four. And I didn't carry it and didn't hold it for as long as it has run. But I want to talk to you guys about the brick wall that I think is the one hundred dollar mark. So let's just go over very quickly the bullish and the bearish story behind Intel on the bullish side. You've got the, of course, the government U.S. subsidies. The politics of Trump backing has significantly reduced the downside risk. And that's the number one story and the number one reason why this stock is moving higher. The market is pricing in a multi year turnaround. It doesn't really need to see those numbers now. All that it's taking into consideration is that the majority of the risk is off the table for the shareholders because of the U.S. government backing. And so it can continue to underperform in this particular cycle as long as the overall macro remains strong. And the third bullish dynamic is the domestic chip manufacturing demand is real and structurally growing. Now, the bears would say pump your brakes. This one hundred dollar price is absolutely ridiculous and disconnected from the current fundamentals. They're saying that the margins are weak and earnings do not justify this move in any way. They would say that Intel is strategically behind Nvidia and AMD and that they are by no means gaining market share from those two A.I. giants. They would say that the management team has failed on executing in the past and will fail on executing again. They would say that the downside could be very, very sharp because all of the positioning is forward looking, not based on reality. Now, let's go take a quick peek at the Intel chart. OK, I don't have to say too much to clearly indicate to you guys that there is no structure behind this ridiculous, monstrous monthly expansion candle that we got in April. This singular God candle on the Intel chart, we're looking at monthly candles which represent the opening and ending price in the course of a single month. So let's just go through the concerns. A parabolic extension risk. Basically, that means this one big, massive candle that cannot lift the future price or hold the future price of Intel up. There would also be the concern about gap up exhaustion. You can see that I've drawn a Fibonacci on this line, suggesting that it could get as high as one hundred and one dollars and sixty three cents. By the way, this was drawn way back here, which really is an amazing prediction for it to have hit the top of the Fib chart. Of course, from a charting perspective, there has been no base built at this level. We also have seen volume spike. And when we see volume spike on a green candle like that, it typically signals exhaustion, not continuation, a possible climax moment. And then, of course, the simple psychological level of one hundred dollars. And it's a huge number to hit, but it's a hard number to break through. And then you've got the biggest problem of all negative earnings. Price is suggesting only success by discounting current failure. Now, that is the fundamental story. That's a picture of the charts. But let's talk about triggers. So I see this potentially still having a blow off top moment because this candle ended bald. And I think there's an opportunity for a candle to form that has a wick, which means that we could shoot up a little bit more. But I'm concerned then about whether or not the chart can sustain that final push. And so I want you guys to be watching a close back below one hundred at the start of next week. And the real trigger to the downside when the algorithms would kick in and it would get aggressive and ugly quick would be a candle close next week under ninety five. There would be a panic of sellers locking in the game, believing that the best moment was behind it. The selling pressure after below ninety five could get extremely aggressive. Now, let me know whether you think that the Intel story is worth holding from here long or whether you agree that this move has been incredible and amazing, but may be coming to an end very, very, very soon. I tried to get as much covered in this video as I possibly could. I appreciate you guys watching. Hit the like and subscribe so you make sure to get the next video. And I didn't talk much about my community, my pro trading community. I want to highlight that the friendly screener did it again and picked some really good stocks for beginners who don't know all the charting. They're not masters of the indicators. It simply delivers the best moving stocks, strength leaders and bearish picks. It delivers them right to you. And in addition to that, we live traded this morning with incredible results. Massive win. We got a huge profit on meta to the downside. We got Microsoft to the upside. Tesla to the upside. Apple to the upside. It was a wonderful day. Let me know if you made some money. Appreciate each and every one of you. I'll see you in the next video. Take care. 95% of day traders lose money in the stock market. Only 5% of traders are consistently profitable. So if you're trading without a strategy, you're not trading, you're gambling. And here's what nobody tells you. 40% of day traders quit in the first month. 80% are gone within two years. This is not investing. Statistically, you're not more profitable because you make more trades. In fact, you're more likely to lose money. Profitable traders don't take the most trades. 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