Something Isn't Right With The Stock Market

The stock market just broke a brand new record high. And not just that, we have seen 11 days of the stock market going up in a row, which is the longest win streak that we have seen since 2021, five years ago. And this is happening while the United States is in the middle of a war in the Middle East. This is happening while gas prices are up 33%. This is happening while credit card debt just broke a brand new record high in the United States. And this is happening while gold prices keep going up. Because the stock market heard all this news and said, well, we don't care that much. So in this video, I want to break down what's really going on at the stock market, things you should be worried about and things you should not be worried about. So let's break this all down. A couple of weeks ago when the markets were getting hit hard, once the conflict in the Middle East started to get worse, one of the things that I was talking about was how when markets go down, it creates a great buying opportunity. Even though many people were concerned about the war getting worse and a recession happening. Well, here we are with the war continuing going on, blockades continuing to happen, oil prices still high, and now markets are going higher. Why? Because sometimes the stock market can be illogical. Sometimes the stock market and the economy do not move in the same direction. And that's the thing you want to pay attention to. It's not just that. The IMF, the International Monetary Fund, just released a new report titled Global Economy in the Shadow of War. And what they said in their report is that they believe that the base case is that the global economy is going to slow. But if the war continues, not only is the global economy going to slow significantly, but we're also going to see global inflation rise significantly. Now, why does that matter? Because there is a term for a slowing economy and high inflation. It's called stagflation. Now, we haven't seen stagflation in the United States for about 50 some years, but the last time we saw stagflation, it was painful. It was painful because we saw very high unemployment while inflation was a problem. What does that mean? It means that wages were going down, but the prices of things were going up and the stock market was getting hit hard as well. During that stagflation era in the 1970s into the 1980s, we saw the stock market get cut in half. It fell by around 50%. And during that period, gold prices were booming. Why? Because people were concerned about the dollar. Money was being printed. People were concerned that the dollar was going to lose its value, and during that 70s decade, gold prices boomed while the stock market fell. Over the next decade after that, gold prices slowed down while the stock market boomed. And this is where you as an investor want to pay attention to what's happening, not get caught up in the noise, and understand how you can actually build wealth. Because unfortunately, a lot of the media out there is in the business of selling hype and emotion. That's how they get clicks. That's how they make money. It's the same thing here on YouTube. If it's not an attractive title, if it's not an attractive thumbnail, no one's going to watch the video and it ends up into the YouTube graveyard. Well, the reality is you need to understand how money moves. That way you can be a smarter investor instead of getting sucked into headlines and emotions. Because the reality is markets go up, markets go down. There's a lot of concerns in the economy. These concerns can definitely move markets down, but the stock market is not always logical. Now, we've been covering all this in Market Briefs. Again, Market Briefs is my free newsletter for investors, where every day my team is working to break down what's happening in the economy, housing, stocks, crypto, and global markets into a fun, witty, and easy-to-read newsletter. You can read it in less than five minutes every morning. It's read by hundreds of thousands of investors. And when you sign up for Market Briefs, you're also going to get access to a free investing masterclass that I just put together, which will walk you through how you can get started as an investor and find hidden investment opportunities before they hit the headlines. So if you have not signed up for Market Briefs or got the free investing masterclass yet, I have that link for you down in the description below. So what's going on right now, the big concern because of the war in the Middle East is oil prices. And the reason why oil prices are so important is because number one, history shows us that most of the time when we have an oil shock, it leads to pain in the economy. And the times where an oil shock does not lead to pain in the economy, that's when the oil shock is very acute, meaning it lasts a short period of time. So the question on every investor's mind is how long is this war in the Middle East going to last? And if it does continue to last longer, what is the government going to do in response? So if oil prices go up, that means gas prices become more expensive. Well, if gas prices are more expensive, now the average American who's already struggling because of inflation now has to spend more money to get to work and to go to Chuck E. Cheese. But that's not all. Your diesel becomes more expensive. And when diesel becomes more expensive, your groceries become more expensive because now Walmart has to pay more money to transport your avocados from the farm to the warehouse to the store. And that's not all. Oil becomes more expensive. Fertilizer becomes more expensive because now farmers have to pay more money in order to produce all those vegetables that you want to buy. And that's not all. When oil becomes more expensive, flying on a plane also becomes more expensive. That's why oil prices have such a big impact on the economy. And we're already running in an economy where a lot of Americans are struggling. How do we know? Just take a look at credit card debt because credit card debt just broke a brand new record high. Now, people don't go into credit card debt because they want to. They generally go into credit card debt because they don't have any money. And this has been a problem. And it's been a problem because of inflation. During the 2020 pandemic, the government spent so much money and all the money printing that came with the government spending led to the value of the dollar falling which led to the prices of things going up. And not just that, we saw the prices of things rise faster than wages, especially after the pandemic. That's why the average American today is making more money but is poorer than they were pre-pandemic. Why? Because yeah, you're making more money but those dollars don't buy you as much stuff. A hundred dollars today cannot buy you what a hundred dollars could five years ago and it definitely cannot buy you what a hundred dollars could ten years ago. That's what inflation does. So now we have the situation where since the pandemic, inflation has been a problem. More and more Americans have been struggling to afford daily life. Okay, that was established. Then came this conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices went up. And what do a lot of Americans spend money on? Gas, energy. And so now all of a sudden, the costs to survive just went up because of the conflict in the Middle East. And that means now you have to spend more money even if you don't have more money. And that's pushing more people into credit card debt because a lot of people are already living paycheck to paycheck. And now if your expenses go up, well you have to find a way to pay these higher costs which is why more people are turning to credit cards. Well what does that mean from an economic standpoint? Because the reality is our economy runs on spending. The more money you spend, the more money somebody else makes. Like if you walk into Chipotle and you say, you know what, I don't want to buy anything. And you walk out. That's not good for Chipotle. They don't make any money. But if you walk into Chipotle like a big baller and you say, you know what, let me get the bowl. Let me get the extra meat. Let me get the extra guac. They're going to be very happy. But who's the person that's actually getting rich when you're buying all that extra stuff from Chipotle? It's not the workers because we know that employees generally don't see their wages rise faster than inflation, at least on average if you look at the median numbers or the average numbers. But it is the investor because the owners of Chipotle are the ones that are now getting the extra dollars. They're getting that profit which is why inflation makes investors richer while the average person gets poorer. So that's been the problem. Now with these higher oil prices, people are having to pay more money just to survive. So they turn to credit card debt. But it goes back to the same problem. If our economy runs on spending and people have less money to spend, what does that mean for the economy? Well, if people have to now turn down spending, that means certain businesses are going make less money. And if certain businesses make less money, well, that can start to hurt the economy. Because if Chipotle is making less money, now instead of hiring more employees, opening more stores, they now have to slow down growth, maybe close stores, maybe let some employees go. That is a pain in the economy. And that's the concern. Now this is where things get a little bit tricky and interesting. But I want you to really understand this and pay attention to this. Because normally what happens in this type of situation, when the economy slowed down in 2020, when the economy slowed down in 2008, when the economy slowed down in 2000, the Federal Reserve Bank, which is the central bank here in the United States, did the same thing. They stimulated the economy. Now how did they stimulate? Well, they do two things. First, they cut interest rates. Then they print money. So when you cut interest rates, that makes borrowing money cheaper. So if the economy is slowing down and all of a sudden, mortgage rates go from 7% down to 3%, what happens? Well, first, people start buying more houses. Because now all of a sudden, that $400,000 house seems more affordable because I can borrow the money for a whole lot cheaper. So the mortgage payments are a lot cheaper. So people buy houses that means realtors start making more commission checks. That means mortgage bankers start to make more commission checks. That means title companies start to make more money. That means moving companies start to make more money. That means construction companies start to make more money. So you can start to see how that impacts the economy. But that's not all. If mortgage rates go down, more people say, huh, I'm sitting on $100,000 of equity in my house. It's not doing anything. Mortgage rates are cheaper. How about we get a new mortgage and we pull out $60,000 of cash from my house in a cash out refinance? When people do this cash out refinance, now all of a sudden, they have new money. When people have this new money that feels almost free, what do they do? They spend it. Now you take the $60,000, maybe go to the BMW dealership, maybe buy a boat, maybe buy a vacation, and you start to spend more money. And you can start to see now how lower interest rates can drive spending, where spending starts to grow the economy. But the other part of is money printing. But how does money printing actually boost the economy? It boosts the economy because if the Federal Reserve Bank spends money or prints money and then they lend it to the government, the government can then spend that money by doing a bunch of things that they want to do. They can send out stimulus checks. And we know that when people get stimulus checks, it's not to stimulate your wallet. It's to stimulate the economy. It's to stimulate the investor's wallet because when people get these stimulus checks, people go and spend that money. So they go and spend it at Chipotle, Amazon, Apple. And who gets rich? It's not the workers. It is the owners of Chipotle, Amazon, Apple, and all the other places. Those are the investors. So the stimulus checks are really there making the investors richer. It's making the rich richer and the average person poorer because now that money has to be printed. And anytime you print money, the value of each dollar goes down. Why am I telling you all of this? Because what is the average investor thinking right now? The investor is thinking, I don't know how long this war in the Middle East is going to last. One day I hear that the war is about to end. The next day I hear that the war is going to get worse. There's a lot of uncertainty. But if oil prices stay high, that's going to cause more pain in the economy. If there's more pain in the economy, what's going to happen next? Well, if there's more pain, the central bank, the Federal Reserve Bank, might have to print more money and cut interest rates. That's what investors want. Because who gets richer when money gets printed? Who gets richer when more spending happens? It's the investor. So investors are looking at this and saying, hmm, what's going to happen two, three, four steps down the road if the economy continues to get worse because of this war? But there's one part missing here. The part missing is what happens if inflation becomes a bigger problem? And that's the concern. Because if inflation becomes a bigger problem, which it very well might if inflation and oil stay high, that's where the Federal Reserve Bank generally raises interest rates. In 2022, after facing this huge inflation problem after the pandemic, what did the Federal Reserve Bank do? They raised interest rates, getting a mortgage rent from 2.5% up to 7% or 7.5%. Why? Because of the higher interest rates. In the 1970s, when we had the inflation problem, what did the Federal Reserve Bank do? They raised interest rates aggressively. Gaining a mortgage then was not 5% or 7% or 10% or even 15%. Sometimes it was 18% to get a mortgage because that was the way that they could fight inflation. So to fight inflation, you raise interest rates. And this is the big question and concern that people have about the economy and the Federal Reserve Bank. Are they going to raise interest rates in order to fight inflation or are they going to cut interest rates and print money in order to boost the economy? President Trump has been very vocal. He wants lower interest rates. He wants a stronger economy. The Federal Reserve Bank, though, is actually not federal. It says so on their website. And so up until now, they've been saying, yeah, we don't want to cut interest rates because we're concerned about inflation. So we don't know what the Federal Reserve Bank is going to do in the future. But as of today, they've put a pause on cutting interest rates because they're concerned about what's going to happen in the Middle East. Now, there's going to be more changes coming at the Federal Reserve Bank later this year. That's a topic I don't want to get into in this video. But we're going to see changes at the Federal Reserve Bank. And that's what investors are paying attention to, which is where is money printing going to go and what is that going to mean for the stock market? Now, ultimately, what does this mean for you? Of course, I can't tell you what to do because I'm just a random guy on YouTube. But a lot of people now get scared. We've been seeing people get scared because of all the volatility in the stock market in 2026 and 2025. But the reality is, if you are an investor, which is what I talk about, what you want to be thinking about is what's going to be happening in the economy, in the stock market, 10 years from now, 15 years from now, 20 years from now. Is the economy going to be bigger 15, 20 years from now, or is it going to be smaller? Well, I think it's going to be bigger. And if you believe that the economy is going to be bigger, then you want to be buying. And you want to be buying even more aggressively anytime there's a good opportunity. What is a good opportunity? When people are scared. Because when people are scared, they're selling. When people are selling, markets are falling. When markets are falling, everybody's running away, and that's when you want to be buying. Now, there is a good chance that we could see a recession. There's a good chance that we could see a market crash. In fact, I can guarantee you that we are going to see a recession. I just don't know when. Everybody's in the game of trying to time the markets. But when you try to time the markets, that's how you lose because nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow, let alone next week, let alone next month, let alone next year, let alone next decade. So instead of trying to predict what's going to happen in the short term, buy. Buy assets for the long term. And when markets do go down, buy more aggressively. You might have heard me say, ABB, always be buying. If you're subscribed to this channel, I'm sure you've heard me say that at some point. But also, when markets go down, BTD, buy the dip. Buy more aggressively as markets go down. The only time you change your investing strategy should be when markets crash. And when markets crash, that's when you want to come in and buy even more aggressively because that's when you can come in and buy good assets at a discounted price. And so while everybody's trying to predict what's going to happen in the stock market, they're trying to trade the market, they're trying to do all these fancy things which sound sophisticated. It's really not. The average trader is losing money. But when you think about it as an investor and you have a longer time horizon, it's much easier to make money because now what you want to do is you just want to buy good investments. And when the markets are crashing, you buy more. And when the market crashes more, you buy even more then. Then when markets go up, well, now you can start to see the value of your assets go up even faster because you bought some great investments at a discounted price. And so you get to see higher than average returns. And if you can see higher than average returns, well, now you can have higher than average wealth. Because if you keep doing what everybody else does, you're going to end up just like everybody else. And right now, the majority of people, unfortunately, are broke. So it's not a very good strategy. But if you stop following what the majority of people do, you cut through the noise, well, now you can start to see opportunity. See, most people get scared and they operate on emotion. They invest on emotion. And that's why many people lose. Emotions are the enemy of profits. As an investor, you want to be investing based off of financials for the long term. And if you can cut out the emotion, well, now you have a real opportunity to build wealth. But you got to be able to cut through the noise because right now, everybody's just caught up on what is the Federal Reserve Bank going to do? Are we going to see stagflation? Are we going to see a recession? Who cares? Obviously, you want to protect yourself. But as an investor, who cares? Buy more when markets go down. We know recessions happen. They're a part of our economy. We've seen 16 recessions in the last 100 years. We're going to see another one. Nobody knows when. I don't know if it's 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031. I don't know. But I do know that when that next recession happens, it's probably going to be painful. But I also know it's going to create great buying opportunities. So what you want to be doing is be preparing. Prepare when times are good that when things go bad, you are ready to buy more. Now, it sounds like a bad thing to say, but it's history. It has happened. It has happened again and again and again. And it's going to continue happening. And we get blindsided and upset and angry by the same things again and again and again. Instead, I want you to understand how it works. History doesn't exactly repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Markets crashed multiple times in 2026, but really, they crashed three times in 2025. If you remember, there were three tariff announcements in 2025. First in February, the stock market crashed. And then President Trump said, oh, tariffs are paused. And markets broke brand new record highs. In March, President Trump announced bigger tariffs. Markets crashed even harder. Then a few days later, President Trump paused the tariffs again. In April 2025, President Trump announced Liberation Day, sweeping global tariffs, the biggest ones we have seen, which caused a global market sell-off at the fastest rate we saw since the pandemic. And then some days later, President Trump eased up on those tariffs. Markets started breaking brand new record highs again. Each one of those times, it created a great buying opportunity. Each one of those times, we were talking about it here on YouTube. Each one of those times, people responded by saying, the markets are going to crash. Why would you buy? We saw it happen in 2026. We saw it happen in 2022 when markets fell by 20%. We saw it happen in 2020 when markets fell by 35%. We are going to see a recession eventually. And when the recession happens, it's going to be a longer downturn in the markets. It's going to be more painful. But what I want you to understand is that as an investor, emotions are the enemy. Cut through the noise. Find the opportunity. There's always opportunity in the markets. You just have to know what your strategy is. Stay calm. Learn to take a And now, you can work to actually build wealth instead of freaking out when you start to see the news about what's happening. Ignore some of the news. Pay attention to the actual financials. Learn to get financially educated. And that's how you can really build wealth. Again, if you want to stay up to date on what's happening, Market Briefs is a free resource. I have that for you down in the description. And if you got value out of this video, the best thank you is a referral. So if you could, please share this video with a friend, family member, colleague, or fellow investor. That way, we can continue to spread this type of financial education. Thank you. Our economy is going through some of the biggest changes we have seen in our lifetime all in 2026. This economic craziness has caused the stock market to go wild in 2026, and it's made people scared to invest their money. But do you want to know something else? This economic craziness actually creates some of the best investment opportunities.