Secrets To Investing And Trading Revealed As Institutional Trader Gives Gold Silver Forecast

Hey folks, welcome to VerifiedInvesting.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist here. Now in today's video, we need to deep dive into what is going on with gold and silver. Are they just about to break down below key support or can they still bounce? Maybe new all-time highs are in the cards this year or are we headed to 50 to 54 on silver and 3,500 on gold? Let's get into the charts right now and explore the latest here. And what we're seeing today is gold trading lower, right? So again, we had a couple days bounce. Now the biggest factor here, and this is something I went over just a couple days ago, you have this low pivot, which is the initial fall, right? This was the de-risking kind of de-leveraging effect that we saw and it stopped right at that 44 to 4,300 level. Now if we zoom out, we see that that level is also in play here as well as in here, right? And even right here, you could see it was hammering on that level. And that's really what told me this was going to be major technical support. Now, the next factor is after the bounce, which was a bearish inside bar candle. So make sure you understand that, right? Is that we then had our next leg down. We made a lower low and that's important, right? The lows to the lows became a lower low, which is bearish. And the high to the high is a lower high as well. So high and lower high. And again, that what that tells you is we're beginning a downward bias overall. And that is partially shaped my overall view ever since we put in the top here and had the big correction, right? The combination of that plus the inside bar bearish pattern here, really telling me we were going to head back down here. Now, notice how we flushed below that 44 to 4300 level, but then we regained it by the daily close. We closed right here back above it. And that really kickstarted a short term bounce. Now, even though we're down ticking today, as long as we don't get a daily close below this zone, technically speaking, this chart would still be favored to have a short term bounce. All right. So the key is, again, as a trader, as a technician that doesn't let emotion get control of you, you want to follow the levels and the levels are important because they tell us something. They're breadcrumbs or they're a piece of a puzzle. And when we look at that, we can start to say, OK, what are the odds here? What's it telling us? And so as long as we hold the lower end of that zone, I remain with a neutral to positive bias on gold just for the short term. All right. So again, again, as of now, now, listen, if we close below here, below basically 4300 game off. Right. In other words, it's to the downside. We will go now. The one thing we have to recognize here is that ultimately this is still a bigger bearish pattern with lower lows and lower highs. In addition, this could be actually the beginnings of a bear flag. So remember, bear flags form. You have a down move like this and then you start to go like this. So short term, you get this up move, but it forms in another inside bar, very similar to the pattern that formed here. And we see what happened to price in that scenario. So again, remember, patterns repeat, patterns repeat over and over again. Now, listen, it doesn't mean a pattern is infallible. It can fail. In fact, I would say two to three out of every 10 will fail, but that still leaves seven to eight that don't. And you might say, well, why do patterns fail or why do they play out? I mean, like why do seven out of 10 times a bear flag plays out to the downside, aka the reason why it's called a bear flag. And the answer is, is because when you look at a candle on a chart, it is a combination of millions of investors and millions of investors. If you take a sample pool of a million people, we all have the same emotions inside of us. We have greed and we have fear and everything in between. And what that does is it means that regardless of what happens, when something occurs, a majority of those people are going to have the same emotional response. We don't change our stripes, right? As they say, we generally, if you go back a thousand years, people still had fight or flight mentality, greed or fear. And so that's why patterns tend to repeat over and over again and why we can get a leg up aka probabilities in our favor for trading and investing. It's really remarkable when you start to understand that. All right. So let's keep in mind, as long as we hold 4,300 here on a daily closing basis, remember intraday, we were lower, but a daily closing basis, we are going to again, have a neutral to bullish bias on gold. My short-term upside is now this level here. Now why this level? Well, simply put low, but this is where we closed and look, see this little gap right here where we started to move up. If I move this across, look at that, right? So right here, this is where we closed one day. This was by the way, a Friday. It's the only time you really get gaps in gold because you have a Friday to Sunday night open where you have the markets closed for about, you know, basically two days. But right here, we opened, we had the big parabolic emotional surge where people were chasing. And then when we collapsed, look at how the daily close was right at that level. And since then that was holding, right? Even this dip right here, look at that candle low. We touched it and we bounced. Now, again, getting into the nuances here, we closed below and we confirmed. So that breaks that. And what it means is this was support. Now, what does it become when support is broken? And this is a classic technical analysis rule. When support is broken and confirmed below, it now becomes resistance. So under that pretense of understanding, where do you expect resistance on gold? Around 4660, 4650 right there. Okay. Now, again, it doesn't mean it can't break through. It just means probability means that that's going to be where gold is going to struggle and could get resistance and rejected. So if we're looking at a continual bounce in gold, it would get here, then it would attack this level again. And unfortunately, the odds start to favor a longer term that we are going to go lower on gold. And listen, I've been called all the names in the books when we were up here saying we were going to collapse. Then when we were up here saying we were still going to come down, that honestly is okay. And I want to say that, you know, number one, I use it as a contrarian indicator, but number one, it's number two, it's that you have to understand that this was the same mentality. A lot of people, when they say, oh, he's crazy, gold's going to go to 10,000 by the, I mean, think about Bitcoin, right? I use Bitcoin as a great example because it's a recent one. We were at 127,000 on Bitcoin, right? Topping out at now we see it topping out and I was bearish, but there were even some of the best respected people out there, Tom Lee, for instance, who was saying by end of year of 2025, we were going to be at 250,000. So, you know, understanding charts and human psychology, it gives you this new ability to read the charts and it's just incredible stuff. So I really encourage a number, you know, my point is, I was like everyone out there that was thinking that way until I started to be very analytical and understand psychology and understand charts. And even some of the biggest players out there, you can still see they fall into the same category, right? So in any case, where does gold go if it breaks here? Very simply put, we go down to this level around 3,900. That will be obviously a pivot low as a pullback low, 3,900. My ultimate target remains here. If we get here, this is where I buy physical. I'll swing trade long, like, listen, I'll even swing trade long here, right? In fact, I did, in all fairness, I exited my GDX yesterday with members. So again, up in this range, we had gotten it at $74.97 pre-market on GLD right over here. This is where we caught in. It was an incredible entry right down here. But then I exited yesterday morning right around this area here. But the point is, is that that was an amazing gain. I don't like to, if someone's going to give me that 18, we made 18% on that trade in the smart money commodity service. If someone's going to give me 18% in two days, I'm not going to be like, no, I want 21%. Two days, 18%, I'm booking that every time, even if gold's going to go higher, right? And that's part of the reason why I believe I'm profitable too as a trader is because I don't get overly greedy. Markets, they function to attack greed and make you lose and fear. And so you have to kind of, you always want to stay measured and methodical and robotic in a way. Very interesting just to understand that. All right, let's go to silver real quick here, guys. Silver again, this is a little bit of a concern. We did close below this level a few days ago of $70. Now, listen, we did not confirm. So that's holding up, notice green candle, and we got back above. Now we're back below. So silver is in a tricky scenario here. Now, again, without confirmation below, which requires a close below the candle and then a subsequent lower move, where if you close below the lows of the previous candle, and you can see right here, we didn't do that. We closed back up. But ultimately, if we do close here, then we have to watch Friday's close on silver, right? Does it confirm? If it confirms, basically you're headed down likely to $54 and maybe even $50. And again, same thing here. This was even a better bear flag, the reversal here. And then this pattern, such a great inside bar bearish pattern. Again, that if you go in a textbook or on any website that shows you what flag a bear flag is, I mean, that's, it's just case in point as beautiful as it gets. So when people, when we were at 91 here to 93, and people were like, oh, we're going back to all time highs. I was like, no, guys, I'm sorry. This is a, this is a bearish. This is basically has an 80% chance of heading back down. And sure enough, you know, it's now down 20. I mean, what are we at? 68. So from 93 to 68 was at $25 down. I mean, holy cow. But listen, the positive is, and by the way, listen, I would still remain neutral to positive on this chart, unless we confirm below, then it means it's going lower. But as long as we don't confirm, then you would favor the bear flag bounce, just like gold, right? It could go like this. And then eventually it rolls over. But again, you know, remember that everything that we do is a piece of the puzzle. And every day we get a new piece of the puzzle, a new candle on the charts, and that will tell us something and it adjusts the probabilities, right? So if you had a 75% chance of this move, and then a new candle changes things a little, it might only be a 70% chance of that move coming. And you have to be open to that as a trader, you know, investors tend, and this is the last thing I'll tell you guys, but it's so important. Investors, and I'm myself included early in my career, I was very much like, well, I'm in that position, so I'm going to believe what I want to believe. I'm going to believe that that move is going to come even contrary. Like, even if I see something that doesn't match perfectly, I'm going to be like, nope, that's the way it's going to go, right? And that gets us into trouble. The market loves that because it can take advantage and make us lose a lot of money. It's important to understand that every day a new piece of puzzle comes in and it could change our viewpoint slightly or majorly in one direction or the other. And you have to be willing to accept that. The second I started to accept that I was not going to win every trade, I became a much better trader because then I could say, okay, well, I'm going to take losses. In fact, for me, two trades out of every 10, I'm going to lose. I already know that. I already know that. And if I win 12 in a row, I know in my head, uh-oh, a loser's coming. And I'm even more careful. Some traders will win 10 in a row and they'll say, oh, I'm on a hot streak. I'm going to put all my chips in. I'm going to go on all in on the 13th trade. And you know what happens? The market crushes that. And you lose a lot more because of putting all the chips on. And so again, understand that losses are part of the process. Becoming a millionaire or a multimillionaire, you're not going to have all the wins in the books. And if you try to swing for home runs, you're going to strike out. And in this game, you don't want it. I made the majority of my, my wealth singles and doubles, you know, basically making when I day trade anywhere between two and $5,000, just over and over again. And again, that's trading on like a million dollar portfolio right now. Occasionally I just, by default, you hit a home run just because it's like dumb luck, right? Occasionally like one out of every 50 or a hundred trades, it's like, holy cow, look at that. It just did something crazy. And I made a lot of money. Vice versa. You can lose a lot in that situation too. But the point is, is that singles and doubles actually make you more money. It's the consistency of just rinse and repeat high probability scenarios and understanding that you're not going to be perfect. Key. All right. Have a great rest of your day, guys. I'll talk to you soon. Take care.