Hứng Mưa Tên Lửa Iran: Vì Sao Vùng Vịnh Vẫn Án Binh Bất Động? || Bàn Cờ Quân Sự

They launched the greatest attack of all time. Quang Hai greets you all. Today, March 25, marks Ukraine's 1,490th day of war with Russia. In the Middle East, the conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran has continued into its 26th day. Both of these conflicts are considered to be in the negotiation phase. but the progress seems rather unpromising. And we will delve into the detailed information about this issue right after this. The largest-scale attack in history Nearly 1,000 UAVs besieged Ukraine. Regarding the war in Ukraine, it could be said that This country has just endured an unprecedented large-scale attack. with nearly 1,000 drones over the past 24 hours. The airstrikes continued relentlessly from daytime through to nighttime. During the day, Ukraine was heavily attacked by 556 drones. Added 390 UAVs at night. It turned the raid into one of Russia's largest attacks. According to Ukraine's air force statement. Drones cover nearly the entire country throughout the day. and then carry out a series of attacks on western areas until late afternoon, including the regions of Venetia, Zhytomyr, Lviv, and Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk. That is, major centers were attacked during broad daylight. Even Ukraine's air force spokesperson, Yuri Ignat They also said that daytime attacks were even more intense than nighttime ones. Such a daylight, open attack carried out by Russia This event is entirely ostentatious in nature. Basically, the Russian drone carried out an attack. to major cities without encountering any problems under good visibility conditions. What is noteworthy is that this occurred at a time when Mr. Zelensky trying to prove to the United States and five Middle Eastern countries that Ukraine is an indispensable partner in the war counter Iran's Shahid UAVs and have specialized expertise in this field. However, the attack also revealed that Kyiv does not have control over its own skies. as many as they are claiming. Russia's drones can again fly relatively safely. in the remote regions of western Ukraine, attack major city centers, despite the blocked claims and Ukraine's construction A quick, low-cost, and highly effective defensive barrier. Specifically, President Zelensky recently declared that Ukraine has an excess of drone interceptors. and thus be able to export them. Yesterday's events showed that the intercepting drone was unmanned. was not as effective as Mr. Zelensky claimed or the Russians have successfully implemented new attack tactics using UAVs. Meanwhile, the negotiations appear to have stalled. when Mr. Zelensky said there was no real progress. At the same time, Ukrainian media wrote that Americans and Russians are exerting pressure on Kiev. We must withdraw our troops from the Danes region. Otherwise, the U.S. will threaten to completely cut off military and financial aid. Nevertheless, Zelensky remained resolute in his opposition. There are truly valid reasons that the Zelensky administration Oppose the withdrawal of troops from the Danes region. The first reason is that Kyiv does not believe Trump will actually cut off aid. Because there are influential people within the Trump administration. They oppose that and support continuing to exert pressure on Russia. A typical example is Senator Lindsey Graham. To date, this faction has prevented Trump from taking such steps. However, the conflict in Iran is consuming considerable resources of the United States. Thus, their stance in support of Ukraine could still weaken. Therefore, each threat to cut off aid may become more realistic. Even blocking intelligence information could have catastrophic consequences for Ukraine. especially in the context of the increasingly severe shortage of anti-aircraft missiles. The second reason is Zelensky's ties to Western factions hostile toward Trump. including the Democratic Party, the British, and allied forces in Europe. These factions simply do not want Trump to end the war in Ukraine. Therefore, they are behind supporting Zelensky in holding out until the upcoming U.S. congressional elections in November. More noteworthy is that President Zelensky has just issued an order to prepare for war for another three years. Exactly until the end of Trump's term. The third reason is that Kyiv believes European countries will continue to fund their war effort. However, this belief is currently being challenged by Hungary's veto power. for the loan of 90 billion euros. Kyiv still has hope if Prime Minister Viktor Orbán loses the upcoming election. And the veto power will be lifted, but there is no 100% guarantee that this will happen. Moreover, the Iran conflict is further exacerbating economic problems in Europe. This could also hinder ongoing financial support for Ukraine. And the fourth reason, perhaps the most important one, is Kyiv expects that Russia's economy will weaken and lack sufficient finances to sustain its military operations. However, this expectation has been severely weakened by the war in Ukraine. causing the price of Russian exports to rise sharply, helping Russia's revenue surge by 70% in the month help fill Russia's budget In short, the four reasons Kiev relies on to reject the demand for withdrawal are all currently encountering obstacles and disadvantages. If Zelensky continues to refuse, sources say the U.S. could pull out of the negotiations. and shifted the focus to military activities in Iran. The reasons why Pakistan and Turkey find it difficult to engage in war against Iran Discussions about the possibility of war in Iran continue today. On March 24, Israel's YNES media reported, Iran's Foreign Minister Arachi spoke with U.S. Special Envoy Whitcock. that Iran's supreme leader Khamenei has agreed to negotiate with the United States and has allowed the conclusion of this issue as soon as possible on the condition that Iran's demands are met. However, the demands Iran has made during the negotiations are unlikely to be met by the United States. According to media reports, Tehran has publicly disclosed its demands. including strict guarantees that the U.S. and Israel will not launch aggression against Iran, included in a comprehensive peace treaty, lift sanctions, compensate for damages, and withdraw U.S. military bases. The United States is unlikely to be willing to meet even one request at this moment. It must be reiterated that Iran has denied conducting direct negotiations with the White House. However, Tehran acknowledged that it had received some proposals from the United States. Through intermediaries, they also responded back. U.S. media reported that a meeting between Iran and the United States is expected to take place in the capital city of Islamabad, Pakistan, in the near future. Meanwhile, Israel's Channel 12 television reported The U.S. is seeking a one-month ceasefire. Next are the negotiations regarding a 15-point plan. There are many viewpoints suggesting that after the initial plan for a rapid change of regime in Iran failed, The U.S. is believed to have become entangled in a prolonged conflict that carries significant潜在 risks. First of all, it is the risk of triggering a political explosion within the United States. as well as the economic aspect, increasing costs, worsen the United States' budget and national debt problems. Therefore, Trump needs to seek a ceasefire. However, Trump is considered a hard-to-predict person. especially the new statements showing no change in Iran's stance. In today's response in the Oval Office on March 25, Mr. Trump once again boasted that the U.S. had achieved a major success with Iran. and said that the country truly wants to reach an agreement with the United States. Trump also said that the U.S. had achieved regime change. Trump expressed confidence that the negotiations would end successfully. even going so far as to say that Iran has given us a great gift, worth a huge sum of money. Mr. Trump also declared that Iran has been completely destroyed militarily. but he did not mention the fact that the Iranian forces Continues to launch missiles at targets in the area. Based on the assessment by a former commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard forces and Iranian media, Tehran believes The latest diplomatic signals from Trump are part of a deception strategy. to reduce the cost of wealth, the current hour for deploying additional U.S. troops, Gather additional intelligence information on senior officials of Iran and further deepened the divisions within Iran. Moreover, according to The Hill, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hances and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is General Dan Cain. had been disappointed by the idea of a ceasefire and did not want to end the war. On Israel's side, in general, officials have rejected the prospect of a ceasefire agreement. emphasizing the deployment of U.S. forces And the general combat plan between the Allied Forces still cannot be changed. Currently, thousands of marines, together with the U-82 Division Expected to arrive in the Middle East on March 27. on the same day as the deadline set by Mr. Trump regarding the Hormuz Strait Additional forces will continue to be deployed in the coming weeks. Moreover, there are additional reports indicating that the countries in the Gulf region also exerting pressure to force Trump to prolong the war. For example, on March 24, the New York Times reported, The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia is said to have urged Trump to continue the conflict with Iran. instead of stopping the shooting. Other reports, however, claim that The Gulf countries are ready to join the fight against Iran with their own forces. Nevertheless, as of this point in time, No country in the Gulf region other than Israel and the United States directly participate in the conflict with Iran for the following reasons. First, they are concerned about a strong blow from Tehran. into the oil and gas industry, even after the war ended It might take many years to recover. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are living in fragile greenhouses. Their existence depends heavily on desalination plants. Power plants and energy export gateways are difficult to defend. All of this is within range. a large number of short-range missiles that Iran currently possesses. Moreover, there are Houthi forces currently on standby there. If these Arab countries actively participate in bombing Iran Then it could be their downfall. Second, it is Trump's ambiguity regarding his involvement in a conflict. on the ground with Iran, despite continuous reports of troop movements. Moreover, with around 5,000 or at most About 10,000 marines are en route to the Middle East. then the U.S. would still find it difficult to carry out a large-scale campaign such as occupying an island. At the current circumstances, this force is too small. and can only be used for very limited purposes. But it is also very possible that this is merely a vanguard unit of a larger force. much larger and requiring several months to deploy. Please note that discussions regarding Kha Island are still ongoing. In addition, there are three small islands in the Strait of Hormuz: Abu Musa, Grit Satun and Glit Satun. Currently controlled by Iran, but the small emirates of Al-Adhdam have declared sovereignty. These islands could be occupied and turned into blocking stations. Tehran controls Hormuz. But the long-range surveillance drone, radar And Iran's anti-ship missiles will certainly weaken their role. Occupying these islands could bring certain benefits. in terms of public relations However, the cost of maintaining these three islands would be excessively high. At the same time, it is difficult to counteract Tehran's ability to block the strait. Another potential target that the U.S. could aim for is The city of Chabahar is located in southeastern Iran. This city has a deep-water port and will be a good starting point. a larger landing force But Chabahar, with its population of about 100,000, is actually a rather large city. to seize it with only an assault force of about 5,000 personnel. Chabahar borders the Balochistan region of Pakistan. This makes any attack on this city They have all become politically complicated. However, the issue for the United States is that even if the countries in the Gulf region Engaging in war cannot resolve the core issue either. That is a lack of infantry forces to launch an attack on Iran. Even Saudi Arabia, which possesses a strong military force Among the Gulf monarchies, this issue has also posed difficulties. Moreover, their involvement in combat with Iran could potentially trigger A attack launched by Iran-backed Houthi forces. And if the Houthis intervene, Saudi Arabia will no longer have time. another war with Iran. They will have to commit their entire forces. to protect its territory from the attack by the Houthis. At this moment, Saudi Arabia is making efforts to block this force. when intervening in the war with Iran. In the region, only two countries have military strength. On the same level as Iran are Pakistan and Turkey. Both are allies of the United States. But currently, Pakistan is at war with Afghanistan. Moreover, this country must also face a hostile India at its rear. It should be noted that Pakistan is an Islamic country. The only one possessing weapons is the human. This country maintains a close alliance with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. While Israel is allied with India, Pakistan's main rival. Moreover, Pakistan has a close relationship with China. a close ally of Iran Therefore, the likelihood of Pakistan engaging in combat is quite low. As for Turkey, the country is currently being extremely cautious. because they are aware of the significant risks if engaging in a direct confrontation with Iran, especially regarding Israel, the country whose president Erdogan and other Turkish leaders still contact each other daily. Moreover, Turkey will need to mobilize its forces. to carry out a campaign on land, the country's peacetime army has significantly fewer troops than Iran's forces. Overall, the decision to go to war with Iran was a difficult one. for President Erdogan, especially when this idea Completely unpopular among the people in Turkish society. Facing a barrage of missiles, why did the Gulf region remain motionless? the vital point of water in the Iran conflict Despite having to endure numerous attacks from Iran and despite the readiness for combat maneuvers. But as of this point in time, the leaders of the Middle East still chose restraint instead of retaliating against Iran. According to a study cited by Al Arabiya Television, Iran has launched over 4,900 missiles and drones. to the Gulf countries compared to about 850 aimed at Israel. Iran stated that it targeted only military infrastructure. as well as American and Israeli personnel stationed in these countries. However, many videos circulating online show a completely different reality. The targeted objectives included residential areas, The airport and hotel caused many civilian casualties. Nevertheless, the Gulf countries still chose not to retaliate. Instead, they adopted a defensive posture and made a calculation. greater in terms of escalating risks. However, this hesitation does not stem solely from military strategy. Moreover, it has another reason: the ongoing conflict between the United States and Israel. Opposing Iran has exposed the vulnerability of water infrastructure. in a place that is among the most water-scarce regions in the world. After the Gulf countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates among the countries with the most severe water scarcity in the world and highly dependent on desalination technology to meet the needs of a population exceeding 62 million people. The countries in the Gulf region are deserts. There are no rivers flowing around here. Although they lack rivers, they do have seasonal waterways. It's called Wadi, the water channel that flows during rare rainstorms. These countries primarily rely on groundwater. and desalination technology to supply water to cities, Their industrial and agricultural zone. The Persian Gulf is known as the world leader in water security. produces about 40% of the world's total desalinated water output. The dependence of Gulf countries and desalination plants reaching an unprecedented level. In Kuwait, this figure reached a record high of 90%. about 86% in Oman 70% in Saudi Arabia and 42% in the UAE. There are currently over 400 dedicated factories in operation, a total production of 7.2 billion cubic meters of fresh water only in the year 2025. Each of these factories is an extremely complex technological hub. Even a partial interruption of power output will immediately cause severe shortage of drinking water under extremely high temperature conditions leading to mass fatalities and the outbreak of infectious diseases. A humanitarian crisis of this scale will certainly cause an uncontrollable wave of refugees and ultimately cause instability not only in the Middle East, and the entire global security system. Analysts have warned that the attack on the water infrastructure will escalate into a scorched earth strategy, In this context, civilians will become the primary targets of military conflict. Restoring high-tech desalination plants will require enormous financial costs, Many months of work, while the demand for water continues to rise constantly. and must not be interrupted. That may be the primary reason why current Gulf countries are hesitant. Dare not engage in military confrontation with Iran. However, it is not only the countries in the Gulf region that face the risk of water scarcity. Iran itself could also face pressure if the conflict escalates. Unlike many neighboring countries heavily dependent on desalination plants, Iran can still exploit water from rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater. However, after five years of severe drought, The water levels at five reservoirs in Tehran have dried up. Last November, President Mahmoud Barzakhian warned that Iran's capital may even have to be evacuated due to water shortages. And that concludes today's program for us. Thank you for your attention. Hello and see you in the next programs.