Cuba’s ‘Entire Power Structure, Including in the Military, Would Need to Be Dismantled’

Could U.S. action on Cuba be right around the corner? President Trump has made several comments in recent days that he's considering taking Cuba. To share her insights on this, we have Christine Bolling, former U.S. defense advisor for Latin America and senior vice president for professional affiliations at the Institute of World Politics. Christine, thank you so much for joining us today. Welcome. So, you know, President Trump has said in recent days that he's considering taking Cuba in some form, and that action will take place soon. Can I just start off by asking you, what do you make of these comments? What is he talking about? Well, thank you for having me. First of all, as the president is often want to do, he's fairly general with his statements. I think what he's signaling is, as has been the plan for some time, is to continue to place the Western Hemisphere as one of the top national security priorities. Actually, technically, this region is the top priority. So the Cuban regime, as it is, having inherited the power from the Castro brothers, has been an enemy of the United States for decades and decades. So while obviously the president isn't going to talk specifics right now, he's making it clear to the American people and to the world that once again, he means business when it comes to ensuring that this hemisphere as a whole is safer, secure and more prosperous. So, Christine, can you just go a bit deeper into the issue of how does this benefit America? How does action on Cuba matter to Americans? Well, as it happens, the Cuban intelligence apparatus known as G2 has been incredibly damaging to our national security. I know that most Americans don't know this, but despite the fact that it's a very poor country, the Cuban G2 was very well trained by the Soviets and the East Germans back in the day, and they've been continuing to punch above their weight for years. For example, it was only three years ago where a Cuban spy who had been served as the U.S. ambassador to Bolivia, he was a member of the National Security Council and a special advisor to the commander of U.S. Southern Command, was arrested having been spying for Cuba for 40 years. So in a sense, this guy named Victor Rocha was sharing incredibly sensitive intelligence with Cuba for 40 years. What do they do with that intelligence? Well, they certainly use it to their own advantage when it comes to any American activities against Cuba, but they can also sell it and they have been known to sell the intelligence to our other adversaries like Russia. Okay, I see. So if we're talking about Cuba right now as it stands, by your assessment, does it have any ability to put up resistance to the U.S. in terms of whatever action the U.S. might take, or is the only option for Cuba is to fully collaborate with the U.S.? What is your analysis? Well, for one, we need to be very careful, and no doubt we will be, in terms of how we proceed and what we do and what the goal is. I mean, the fact of the matter is I certainly do not anticipate any military intervention, but having said that, the Cuban military, of course, is no match to the U.S. military. Certainly, they can continue to use the propaganda method by saying that, look, the United States is cutting us off from our energy, from our ability to have fresh water, food, so they can try to rally the world in their favor, presenting themselves as a But the bottom line is, I think that we have a very good chance of overturning, overthrowing, I should say, this regime in one way or the other, because the Cuban people themselves, while they're, of course, they're loyalists, they are very, very, I think, ready to be free in terms of free trade and living in a democracy. So I don't anticipate the level of resistance by the populace that some pro-Cuban folks online are saying. Okay, just to clarify, do you mean we're going to see potentially a change in leadership that leads to democracy? Yes, well, I think that that is 100% a requirement. I don't see that it would be possible that, for example, if the current president were to be removed or stepped down, that that would be enough. The entire power structure, including the power structure of the military, would need to be dismantled for any hope of real change. Okay, understood. So before I ask you the next question here, I brought a clip of Secretary of State Marco Rubio with him commenting on Cuba Tuesday. Let's just take a quick look at that. It's a non-functional economy. It's an economy that has survived. That revolution, it's not even a revolution, that thing they have has survived on subsidies from the Soviet Union and now from Venezuela. They don't get subsidies anymore. So they're in a lot of trouble. And the people in charge, they don't know how to fix it. So they have to get new people in charge. Talk to us a little bit about Cuba's economy right now and what appears to be instability within Cuba. Yes, well, as Secretary of State Rubio suggests, I mean, it is a mess. It's not a free economy. The government controls essentially the exchange of goods and services. The military owns all the hotels, for example. So Cuba does have a certain degree of tourism closed off to the United States, of course, at this time. But that's all controlled by the government so that the benefits do not trickle down to the people. Certainly, if we are to intervene in Cuba, it is to be expected that we will have to offer some sort of economic support. Perhaps whatever shape the reimagined USAID organization is that they would have to, that group under the State Department, would definitely have to set up some program before the free economy would be functioning. It's unrealistic to say that even if the regime were overturned or overthrown tomorrow, the Cubans would need outside support to get the economy, a free economy up and running. So that should be part of the administration's plan. Okay, I want to ask you this, and it may seem like an obvious question, but I think it's still worth articulating clearly. How does the Cuban people feel? Put it into words for us about the country's leadership. Well, they're oppressed. I mean, very much as in the case in Venezuela, those who oppose or speak out against the government are thrown in jail and tortured. There are Cubans on the island who have family members in the United States who've escaped. So we really do get a legitimate idea as to what the Cuban people, how they feel about the regime. Of course, they can't say it publicly, so they can communicate online occasionally, but certainly through family members. As I said, I think that the Cubans would welcome intervention with open arms. It was a great country before the Castro's, the so-called revolution, and it can be a great country again. Okay, just one final question here, Christine. I don't know if my feeling is correct or not. You can tell me, but it feels like Cuba is potentially on the edge or on the verge of, the government that is, on the verge of collapsing and having a transition to a different government with new leadership. Is my feeling correct? How close or how far away is the current Cuban government to collapsing? Well, I think we're close. Two indications, certainly the population is not going to stand for no water, no electricity, no food for very long. Protests have already started, including against the building where the Communist Party is housed. That sort of thing was not happening before the US started talking about intervening. Number two, I don't think President Trump would be speaking so frequently in the recent days as he has if something were not imminent, just coming up soon. Okay, Christine, really enjoyed this conversation today. Thank you for giving us your time. Thank you.