The Spring Housing Market is Here Here s What We Already Know

The spring housing market has officially begun—and the early data is already telling us a lot about what to expect for the rest of 2026.

In this week’s housing market update, we look at the latest real-time data showing home sales slowly improving while inventory growth continues to slow. Mortgage rates have risen slightly this week amid global economic volatility, but they remain significantly lower than they were a year ago, helping buyer demand gradually return.

So far in 2026, pending home sales are about 2.6–3% higher than last year, with nearly every week outperforming 2025 except for two storm-impacted weeks in early February. That’s modest growth—but it’s consistent, and it shows that buyers are responding to improved affordability.

At the same time, inventory growth has compressed dramatically. There are about 904,000 homes on the market nationwide, only 5–6% more than a year ago, compared to nearly 30% inventory growth at this time in 2025. As mortgage rates fell over the past several months, buyer demand returned faster than sellers—tightening supply rather than expanding it.

In this week’s episode we break down:
Why home sales are running ahead of last year
How mortgage rates influence inventory growth
Why fewer sellers are entering the market
What the latest data suggests for home prices in 2026
The early signals shaping the spring housing market

Mike Simonsen, Chief Economist at Compass and founder of Altos Research, analyzes real-time housing market data each week to identify trends before they show up in traditional reports. For more than two decades, Mike has been a leading voice in housing analytics, focusing on metrics like inventory, pricing trends, and pending home sales to help agents, investors, and homeowners understand where the market is heading.

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This post is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial, legal, or real estate advice. Any market forecasts or predictions discussed are speculative and are subject to change. Actual results may differ. You should seek their own professional advice before making decisions. Compass disclaims any liability for reliance on this content.