CRASH Worse Than Great Depression Ahead Then 20k Gold 500 Silver David Hunter

Hello everybody and welcome into Commodity Culture, where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles, and geopolitics, all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day. Today is February 18th, 2026. And I'm thrilled to be joined by David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors with over five decades of experience on Wall Street. David reiterates his call for a global bust worse than the result in an 80% drop in the broad market, followed by a commodity super cycle, unlike anything the world has ever seen, with price targets of $20,000 for gold and $500 for silver, numbers David admits could be much too low for the ultra-inflationary environment that will follow the bust. David also gives his take on Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair, where the US dollar is headed, his thoughts on the current state of the US and global economy, and so much more, so strap yourselves in for my conversation with David Hunter. David Hunter, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. I want to kick things off with discussing the broad market and where we currently stand in your call for a blow off top followed by a global bust. This is something we've discussed several times on the show in the past, but I'm wondering where we sit today because we have seen the broad market continue to creep up. Are we getting close to that event in your view, or do you think there's a way to go yet before we do see that inevitable large correction? Yeah. Hi, Jesse. Thanks for having me on. I am still very bullish. I think we have just completed a high level consolidation that goes back to late October. So it was kind of, you know, very much in a trading range for quite a while here. I thought there might be a chance to get down towards the $6,700, get down under $6,800 a couple of times and basically triple bottomed here. And I think today is a sign that we have completed that consolidation. You know, it can always go back into it. It's not a guarantee, but I think there's a pretty good chance we completed it. And when I look at a lot of sector work, when I look at the market, I think we're off to the races from here on. There's some things that can obviously crop up like RAN or you know, some of the issues with what the government's doing you know, with, with ICE, et cetera. But I think really the market is telling me when I look at it, that this thing's off to the races from here. So I think the next few months is going to be very strong market. So if you were deploying capital in the market today, you would actually be sticking to the big indices, the, the larger tech stocks, that sort of thing. You think that that has a lot more room to run and, and a follow-up to that, what signs will you be looking for when it's starting to roll over and when perhaps it's time to get out? Yeah, actually we have, and obviously it's been the narrative of this year so far is that there's been rotation out of tech and into a much broader part of the market. And I think that's still going to be the case or still going to be part of the story. I think tech will, will rejoin the rally. You know, it's spent, again, since last, last fall, it's spent this time consolidating. There's been big sell-offs in software, for example, and, and some of the, you know, the mag seven. But frankly, I think that was just after such a strong run and needed a rest and it had, you know, needed to do more than go sideways. So tech stood out as having corrected. But I don't think it's that they've topped. I think they are going to join back in and be a very much an outperformer, a big part of this rally, but at the same time, and I've been calling for this for a couple of years, I think the small caps are, have, have broken out and I think you're going to see actually small caps outperform even the tech probably. So I raised targets back last fall, back in October when I put out my fourth quarter letter and I raised the Russell index of Russell 2000 index from 3,400 to 3,800. So from here, that's probably 45%, something like that. When you do my numbers on the NASDAQ, which I raised to 32,000, that's probably something just over 40% and S&P same thing. So S&P, my target now is 9,500. So we're talking about, you know, between 40 and 50% returns. And in some of the sectors, it looks like you could even outdo that. So, so I think you're looking at a very strong finish to the first quarter and then, you know, second quarter. And then in terms of your call on the aftermath, when we do get to that point, when the market rolls over, are you still targeting, because last time we spoke, you said that there could be up to an 80% correction in the broad market at some point in time. Is that still your view today? Yeah, I still think this is a final run in a 43-year secular bull market that I think is going to go parabolic if these numbers are correct and that happens by summer, you know, that's a very steep run, probably historic run. And so I do think there's still a good chance. And I, as you probably see on Twitter, I get plenty of criticism for constantly pushing out the time, you know, or the market pushes it out and I just go with it. But, you know, I still think there's a good chance we top out in the first half of the year and it could spill beyond that, but something like that with a rollover into a bear market happening before the end of this year. So you might, you know, the top could be quick or the top might take a few months because tops are a process and you may not really roll over until fall. Don't know. I mean, you know, we'll have to wait and see. But I do think we're going to top this year. I think we're going to see a global bust very well. Could start in the fourth quarter or before. I think we're, you know, you can look now and say the economy is strengthening. What are you talking about? But under the surface, there's still signs that this thing is rolling over. What you've got going on is you've got an economy that's being boosted by all the industrial spending, you know, the reshoring, the, you know, the A.I. spend, the building out of the grid, the, you know, the data centers, all of that. That's taking up a lot of obviously materials, which materials is looking very good here and breaking out. But it's also, you know, other industrial companies, Caterpillar, things like that are very much beneficiaries of some of that spending. So the industrial side of the economy is coming alive and looking pretty good. And that's really, you know, it started late last year, early this year. And the consumer is slowing. You know, there's still that have and have not economy where the, you know, the bottom half of the consumer is kind of saying we're, you know, our discretionary income is very limited, we're just getting by. And then the upper half, because their wealth is up so much from the market and still real estate still hanging in there, that continues to boost the economy. So when I look, I mean, I look today and things like airlines look very strong on the charts, even consumer discretionary retail, the retail sector area, the charts look fine. So there's no sign here that, you know, the consumer is rolling over so much that you're going to be short circuiting this thing right away. That being said, I think we are seeing delinquencies up. We're seeing, you know, some issues with the consumer that that will come, but probably not until summer or beyond. Yeah, and I'm wondering that kind of dovetails into my next question about the economy in the U.S. right now, because there's those in the camp that we're headed for a major recession up ahead. Some who say we're already in one and that it hasn't been like declared officially. And then others who say economic growth actually looks strong up ahead and they don't see any argument for your outline, your case for a global bust. How are you viewing the economy specifically in the U.S.? You outlined a little bit of it there, but perhaps you could expand on that for us. Sure. Yeah. What I found over many years is that when they go back and backdate the economy, you know, the recessions, it almost always has started before we had thought it was when we were at that time. The NBER doesn't date it until after the fact. So after the recession is over, they'll go back and tell you when it began. And there's a decent chance that it may have already begun again where it's confusing because you have GDP, you know, was actually had a number that was above five percent. It's been revised. You know, you're getting a revised back under four. But, you know, four percent GDP is a strong number. So you say, how can you be talking that we might even be in a recession? But again, it goes back to that the segments of the economy. And statistically, GDP may not be the best measure given the have and have not economy. So I think it's more nuanced, probably, that maybe statistically we're not in recession yet, but there are plenty of signs that, you know, certain subsets of the economy are in recession already. And, you know, again, a global bust is a bad recession, you know, an extreme recession coupled with a financial crisis of historic proportions. 2008-9 is probably the closest thing we've had to a bust in the last 90 years. But this one, I think, could be worse than that from a crisis standpoint. The sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver Gold Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. Take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 307-264-9441 or by email at ianatarcsgo.com. Make sure to tell him, of course, that Commodity Culture sent you. And now back to the interview. Yeah, I've heard some other people echo your sentiments, particularly as you mentioned, it's been over 40 years that we've been in a bull market, according to many. And during that time, we obviously saw very low interest rates, near zero interest rates. That has changed. Trump now wants interest rates lowered again. The new Fed chair he's installing, Kevin Warsh, is known to be a hawk. But yet Trump has been going after Powell for not lowering interest rates. So I'm wondering how you see all of that playing out. Do you think Trump is going to get his wish? And what would the implications of that be, of lowering interest rates from here on the economy and financial markets? Yeah, it's one of the areas where I take issue with Trump. People who follow me know I'm pretty much a Trump supporter, believe in the policies that he's pursuing from deregulation to, you know, closing the border, obviously, things like that. But I think the one area where I disagree with him or think that he's kind of wasting capital is in the argument over the Fed. I have said for a very long time, interest rates are determined by the bond market, not by the Fed. You know, the Fed can control overnight rates. And of course, the Fed's sentiments do sway market from day to day and beyond. But ultimately, it's really the bond market that leads on rates and the Fed follows. And so I'm not worried about whether, you know, who's Fed chairman. I really don't think it may be a question of some timing when, you know, Powell might be slower to do it than Warsh. I was not one of those that bought into the narrative that, you know, what's Trump doing? He wants to get rid of Powell and then he brings in a hawk. If you listen to Kevin Warsh right after he got chosen, he did a few interviews and he explained pretty clearly, I thought, his belief that if you have good productivity and, you know, inflation is under control, it's a mistake to be tightening policy or run a restrictive policy just because the economy is running hot or running strong. And so he's very much in the camp that says we can lower rates as long as inflation is under control, where I think there may be an issue is he wants to bring down the balance sheet. You know, we went from, as I remind people, we were $875 billion in a Fed balance sheet in 2008 before the crisis. You know, in October 2008, that was the size of the balance sheet and largest it had been since 1913 when the Fed came into being. We went from $875 to, well, there were $3.7 trillion increased, you know, in response to 2008, nine, and then, you know, another $5 trillion in the pandemic. We got up to $9 trillion on the balance sheet. We're down now to $6465 trillion. And Kevin Walsh, probably rightfully so, says, you know, we went crazy. You know, we blew up the balance sheet. We should, over time, bring that balance sheet back down into normalcy. That's nice to say, and I understand where he's coming from and, you know, theoretically agree with it. The problem is if we're heading for a global bust, I think that balance sheet's going to end up at $30 trillion, not down at $3 or $4. You know, he may have the intention to do that. I don't think the economy's going to ever allow that. I think he's, and it won't be because he wants to blow it up. He'll probably be reluctant during the early stages of the bust, but the bust is going to dictate that the only, really, the only thing you can do when you have a free-falling financial system around the globe is move money into the system quickly because, you know, fiscal policy doesn't move that quickly, isn't going to solve that problem, and so every central bank's going to be pumping money like crazy. If you asked them today, there's not a central banker that would think that's the case. If you asked, you know, most economists, they wouldn't think that's going to be the case. It's not on people's radar, but once their deer-in-headlights moment comes, where they're looking and go, oh, my God, we've got to save the system, it's going to take a lot of money to do that because they'll be slow in reacting, as they always are, and probably slower this time because of 2008-09, you know. Everybody from Wall Street to Fed members to, you know, virtually all economists and strategists would say, we don't want to go back there. You know, zero interest rates was a very bad policy. You've heard Powell say that. You've heard Powell say, you know, I'm never going back to that. You know, QE levels again, and Wall Street pretty much agrees with that. So they're all in agreement that we shouldn't do what we're going to have to do. They just don't realize yet that they're going to have to do it. I want to get your thoughts on the incredible run in both gold and especially silver over the last several months with the metal screaming to new all-time highs. Before a fairly steep correction, especially for silver, it fell actually 26% in a single trading day. However, gold is already back above $5,000 as we speak. Silver up above $75 an ounce. How do you see the price action in both metals playing out from here and into this global bust? Sure. You know, because we haven't talked in a little while. Last October, I raised my silver target to $125, and it had been, you know, I had been $75 for a long time. I raised it to $100. I can't remember exactly when. And then last October, I raised it to $125 gold. I raised from $4,000 to $5,000 and then in October raised it to $5,500 and, you know, was obviously very bullish. This last sell-off that you just mentioned, I raised my gold target $6,800 after the sell-off. I mean, I didn't do it ahead of the sell-off. I actually called sell-off on a podcast the day before it started rolling over and said, you could see a 30% sell-off in silver and maybe 10 to 15 in gold. And then when we got it, I said, that's cleared the air for another big advance. As much as it was parabolic in silver, I didn't react to it the way so many did as this is a top. And I raised my silver target to $180. And I think you could see that by summer. I raised my gold target $6,800, as I said. So I'm extremely bullish. I think you are seeing, you know, it corrected a little bit here recently. And the miners too. And I think, well, obviously we're still dealing with the sell-off. So it kind of went down, came back up some, went down some, back down some. And now I think we're ready to go. So I think you're going to see that run to $180 in silver very quickly here in the next, you know, three to six months and gold to $6,800. You know, I was always pretty much the high on the street in these things. More recently, you know, I think there's a couple of people, Michael Oliver, I guess, and I think his first name is talking, you know, $300, $400, $500 silver. And I have that out there late this decade, early next. I don't think you get it this cycle, but I do think after what we've just witnessed and what I think we're about to witness, that $500 for me is probably a very low estimate for, you know, the late twenties and early twenty thirties. I'll probably have to raise that, but I just don't, I could be wrong, but that'd be quite a run to see that happen this year. Well, you mentioned the miners. I'd love to get your thoughts there on both the gold and silver mining sector. Obviously, a lot of these companies look pretty undervalued when we consider the value of the ounces they're either producing or if they're in the development stage, the price of the ounces that they have in the ground. We have seen both sectors run, but they have so far not really provided that massive leverage on the gold and silver price that many have expected. I've spoken to some people who think even the big producers at these levels are fairly undervalued given the price of gold. How are you viewing the gold and silver mining sector right now? Yeah, it's interesting. I get a lot on X people complaining about silver miners or the gold miners. And I remind them that many of them, if you look at them, have tripled off their bottoms or some more than that. So it's, it's a little hard to be disappointed with them, but I get it. On the basis of where silver and gold have done, have gone, you know, they're still in catch-up mode. And I do think we're going to see that in the next three to six months. I, again, that same time I raised silver and gold, I raised my targets on my, you know, I target GDX, GDXJ, SIL and SILJ as proxies for the miners. My GDX number, I've raised that to, I've got to remember these because I've done raising things so quickly. The GDX I raised to 180 from 150. I, I'd raised it from, I think a hundred to one, one 50 back in October. And then this most recent increase, I increased it to 180. My GDXJ was 210 last October. I've raised that to 250 and that was up from, you know, it was a hundred dollar target, you know, less than a year ago. SIL, I have at 220 now, it had been 180 and that had been raised from 150. And SILJ is now 90 up from 75. So, and that had been raised from, you know, for, for the longest time, for many years, I had a 35 target when silver was down at single digits or SILJ was down at single digits and people questioning, and I was even questioning, are you going to get to 35? And now, you know, my target's 90. So, and again, these are not targets for two years from now. This is this year and probably this summer. Um, so I think we're in for that catch up rally. Everybody's kind of been waiting on in my, just based on what I see today, I think we may be just beginning. And how much credence do you give to the narrative out there that gold is becoming money again, is becoming the new world's reserve asset? Because obviously we are seeing countries like China, Russia, and others quietly divesting themselves of us treasuries in favor of holding physical gold. A lot of people, of course, point to the seizing of Russian FX reserves when they invaded Ukraine or started their special military operation, depending on, on, uh, which, which media headline you want to go with. Um, and they looked at many people have looked at that as kind of the catalyst that caused central banks and governments around the world to say, wait a minute. Maybe we can't just be holding treasuries if they can freeze it at any point. Um, what is your view on that whole narrative surrounding gold becoming money, gold becoming the new reserve asset? Yeah, there's no question that we have that whole, um, narrative about the bricks to going to go back currency so they can kind of subvert the dollar. And so I think that it all is kind of the same big picture of, um, you know, the those, those that are on the other side of, of the U S wanting to see the dollar dominant stop, you know, that we it's funny because we years ago decided rather than military action, we can do things with sanctions and with our strength as a reserve currency, we can do a, and obviously when you, when you bully people financially, they start trying to figure out ways to get around that and, and ways to, uh, you know, prevent you from doing that. So, so I think that's really a lot of what you're seeing, certainly from China and Russia and, and the bricks, et cetera. Um, I think there's more than that, obviously for gold gold is, um, some of it is, uh, kind of catch up on all that money printing that we talked about over the last decade. Um, some of it is, there's a lot of, a lot of stuff going out on out there geopolitically, uh, not just, not just Ukraine, you know, it's, uh, Iran's obviously there, there's a lot of just a lot of, um, um, instability in the world, even though, I mean, I think Trump is doing a lot to try to calm things down. It may not seem like a while you're in the midst of it, but I think we're moving more that direction than the other, but still, while you're doing it, it does feel like there's a lot of turmoil out there that you've got to guard against. There's, there's so much out there in terms of, um, um, the political battles and, uh, you know, the new world order things and stuff. So I think that all goes into the pot for gold and obviously that's through the roof. And there's a lot of people saying, I want gold, you know, if, if we're going to just continue to expand money and continue to expand that, um, you know, I've got to have something that's, you know, gives me grounding in terms of what can offset that. So, so I think that's all there. I am not in the camp that thinks we're imminently close to a reset or imminently close to the dollar losing its reserve status. You know, we're still in the, I think mid eighties or high eighties in terms of the, you know, trade that's done with the dollar. So as much as it's made, they're making inroads and it's coming down a little bit, it's not, I am, however, a bear on the dollar and I've used that in the target out there for a long time. And I think we could see that this year. Um, so I am in, you know, it's DXY. So I am in the camp that thinks the dollar is going to, uh, come down a lot here and that will certainly boost that narrative that, you know, gold's the only game in town, you know, you need to have a hard currency. Um, but I think on the other side of that, when we get the bus, the dollar could go from 82 to one 20 and we're right back in the other side of that story. So, so I'm not in the campuses reset or, you know, go back. Currency is going to be the thing going forward that may happen, but it's probably still many years off. Um, you know, I, I, we won't get into it here. I don't think we have time, but I have a view that out of the bus, because of all the money printing, you'll have a very inflationary, uh, recovery cycle. I mean, very inflationary where the U S could see 25% inflation. And, and then with the debt we have in the system, and again, not just here around the world, um, it will lead to, I think, um, a collapse of, of the system we've lived under for, you know, certainly the last hundred years, 90, a hundred years. Um, so we could see something worse than great depression, uh, drawn out, uh, and truly a collapse of, of the financial system around the world in there. Anything could come out of that. Hopefully it'd be, you know, it'd be something like a gold back currency and more, you know, starting fresh and more, more stability. Uh, and cause we've spent, uh, I call this a, you know, the last we're in the last decade of super cycle. What I define as the long cycle between two depressions, the 1930s. And what I think will be the mid 2030s. So it's basically a hundred year cycle. Um, and, uh, it's also what I think from post great depression, every cycle, we've ratcheted up more. It's taken, you know, it's taken more, uh, we've cranked it up. You've gotten inflation initially. It didn't take that much to crank it down each successive cycle it's gotten more extreme. So now we're at the point where, you know, the, the ups are more extreme and what it takes to bring the inflation down or bring the system back down into order, they overshoot and it's a bigger, um, event like the bust would be. So I think we're at that point where we're in the last decade of that super cycle, we're also at the end of what I call, uh, 80, 90 year Ponzi scheme. Because of all the, you know, each successive cycle, the debt just went higher and higher and higher. It's, it's accelerating at a much more, at a much steeper rate. Well, let's talk about some other commodities, uh, both pre and post bust, anything else that's on your radar. We've talked about a lot of it on this show before, but just to reiterate and to see if any of your calls have changed. Um, could you talk about oil, uh, natural gas, any of the base metals and any of the other commodities that are currently on your radar and how you see them performing both into the bust and afterwards? Sure. Let's start with copper. Copper looks great here. Um, I have an $8 target for copper. Um, and I think it's now, you know, it's under six, five 70 or something like that. So, uh, it, it got up, um, to six backed off all the way back to the three something I think, and as running again, I think you can see $8 this year. Uh, that's my pre bust target. I think in the bust again, a bust is going to be a really tough global economy. You could see copper fall all the way to, you know, two or $3, maybe even below that. Um, and, and then post bust, I wouldn't be surprised to see copper at $20 or higher, um, because again, with all that money printing, with all the reshoring we're going to do with, you know, all the, um, um, expansion and do the AI, et cetera, commodities are going to be in demand everywhere. It's going to be so-called commodity super cycle, you know, something bigger than we've ever seen in commodities. Prices will go through the roof in most commodities, including ag. Um, that doesn't necessarily fit that part of the story, but I think you're going to see all that money is just going to flow through to inflation and demand for commodities ultimately. So by, you know, by the early 2030s, copper could be north of 20. Um, oil could be $500, uh, natural gas pick a number, but I think you could see natural gas down to a dollar in the bus and then be $50 or more. And at the, you know, in the early 2030s, so I think we're going to see something. It's it's I lived through, I was a portfolio manager back in, in the early 1980s, this will surpass that, but it will be very similar in terms of, you know, commodities will be, will be the story. And we are getting obviously a mini version of that. Now, I mean, commodities are coming alive here. Materials are waking up, you know, starting to move up. So we're getting, but this is not, it's not a straight line from here to there. You've got that bust in between that'll take prices back down. And then from a much bigger hole, it'll be an amazing run. So certainly the base metals, you know, um, you'll see it in, in all the metals. I think you'll see it in the steel. You'll see it in pretty much all commodities that are going to be, uh, out there. So, um, the, the tech commodity is obviously semiconductors. I just, you know, I don't know how, how to read that one because tech is not going to be what it is this cycle. Next cycle it will, you know, there'll be, there'll be pockets of tech that'll do well, but tech's going to be like it was in the, uh, following the, you know, dot is going to go through and from a stock standpoint, going to go through a period of distribution where every time it lifts it ahead, there's another group of sellers because they were over owned. You know, they got, they were the, they were the winners of this cycle. Every time you go to a new cycle, there's new leadership. So semis may be the exception of that. There may be just so much demand that they have the pricing flexibility because that's the key of the next cycle. That because of inflation going to 25% and interest rates going to the high teens or 20, um, it's going to mean that you've got to be in stocks who can produce earnings that have pricing power, can produce earnings that exceed inflation and also exceed interest rates. Cause your, your P multiples are going to be shrinking as rates go up. You know, the market multiple goes down, P multiples go down. So unless you can produce earnings at a much rapid or much more rapid pace, um, you're not going to be able to keep pace with inflation. So those that are for, you know, since the mid eighties, it's been a great strategy to own an index fund and just leave it there. You know, if you listen to the mantra from Wall Street or from, uh, the financial folks, you know, financial advisors, it's timing the market, not timing the market from the mid eighties till now, that's been the mantra. And it's been absolutely correct going forward from middle of this year. I think it's timing the market, not timing the market because you're getting it like, like you said before, I, I do believe we could see an 80% decline in the market in the market. That means there'll be more that'll, there'll be some that will exceed that, you know, some that will be under that, but on average, the indexes could fall 80%. And before I do let you go, uh, I don't think you mentioned it. Price targets for gold and silver post bust. Yeah, post bust. My, uh, gold target, and this is probably early 20 thirties is 20,000. And that looked great when gold was, you know, 2000 or 3000. Now that it's run up here and may run up to 7,000 or close to 7,000. The cycle 20 doesn't seem like a long shot anymore. It looks pretty reasonable. I think the likelihood is that 20 is going to have to be bumped up. You know, that, uh, that may be way short of where it ultimately goes. Silver. Um, I have a target of 500. I, I am almost sure that that's going to prove too low, but I haven't changed it yet. But that's, you know, those, those have been my longterm targets for, you know, several years. Great. Well, David, thank you so much for coming on the show. Tell us about contrarian macro advisors and how people can sign up for that service. Sure. Yeah, I've, I've been writing, uh, a quarterly investment letter since the year 2000. I think, uh, it originally was an institutional letter that I, um, put out quarterly and, and for institutional clients, um, I probably four years ago, four or five years ago, uh, I guess it was at least five years ago. Now time's flying by. Um, I started offering it to retail and now it's, you know, very much a retail letter as well. It hasn't changed. I, I write pretty, you know, I speak pretty plainly, write pretty plainly. Retail people tell me anyway, they say it's very readable and understandable for them. So I, I do put out that quarterly letter by subscription. If people have an interest in it, they can send me a message via chat X chat. Um, chats become problematic for me because it's not functioning all that well, but, uh, it's still working where I can get those messages in one way or other exchange, uh, information with people if they're interested. So, so if you're, if you're interested in it, just send a direct message to me via chat. Well, I'll put a link in the description to your X profile so people can go ahead and send you a message there. David, as always, fantastic conversation. Thank you so much for coming on the show. Yeah. Thanks. Yes. Thank you for joining us today. Sponsor of this episode arc silver gold. Osmium has some great prices on silver bullion products. You can see them displayed on your screen right now. These are limited supply and subject to change. So be sure to reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 307-264-9441 or by email at ianadarksgo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you and pick up your stack silver, not Fiat t-shirt represent sound money in style using the link in the description below, and I'll see you guys in the next. Commodity culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification. 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