Chinese tourists have a new favourite country this Lunar New Year

It's shaping up to be a record-breaking lunar new year. Some 9.5 billion trips are expected to take place in China over the holiday, according to government estimates. Lunar new year in China is already one of the largest mass migrations on earth. This year, it's shaping up to be even bigger. The Chinese government releases estimates of all travel during a 40-day window around the lunar new year holiday. This year, travel is up 5% over the previous year. Much of this travel will be domestic. But for countries around the region, the lunar new year holiday has been a big moneymaker for destinations favoured by Chinese tourists. While countries across the region are expecting a rush of visitors from China, there's one place where that number is expected to drop. Japan, their traditional number one favourite destination, is expected to see a decline this year. In 2025, Japan was the top destination for Chinese tourists heading abroad during the lunar new year holiday. But this year, expected arrivals declined more than 48%. That has caused Japan to drop to fifth place in a list compiled by China Trading Desk, which publishes an annual analysis of lunar new year travel trends. What caused Japan to lose nearly half of its tourist arrivals from mainland China? Well, obviously, political reasons. Because since last November, both countries have been embroiled in a war between China and Japan. Travelling to Tokyo has been significantly, I would say, politically costly. The dispute centres on comments made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takeichi, who has said Japan would respond militarily in the event of an invasion of the self-ruled island of Taiwan by mainland forces. The comments angered Beijing, which issued a travel advisory warning against trips to Japan. Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including Japan, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state. But Tokyo is opposed to any attempt to take the island by force. Opposition politicians questioned Takeichi about her off-the-cuff remarks, but she has declined to walk them back. The reaction from mainland travellers has been swift, with trips to Japan dropping by 45% in December 2025 over the previous month. Yet tourists from other countries, notably those in Southeast Asia and Europe, offset the decline enough for Japan to still book record arrivals in December. With Japan and China at loggerheads, mainland travellers are looking elsewhere this Lunar New Year. And for many, the new top destination is located right next door. Korea is likely to be their number one destination this year. Arrivals at South Korean airports from mainland China are expected to grow by some 52% this February. That's as many as a quarter of a million visitors from mainland China arriving in South Korea over a single holiday season. But why South Korea? It offers great value, actually. South Korea has been one of the rare Asian currencies that has depreciated against the dollar, while the Chinese yuan has strengthened significantly. So it has made South Korea a great country to travel with relatively cheaper price. Seoul and Beijing are also in the midst of a highly publicized period of warmer tides. They're obviously enjoying their bilateral heydays. So in late October, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited South Korea for the first time in 11 years to attend this APEC meeting. So in response, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung followed up with a visit to Beijing in early January. So both countries have agreed to continue dialogue and strengthen their economic partnerships, and of course signing on multiple MUs. South Korean pop culture has long been a major draw to its tourism industry. The popularity of Korean music, dramas and food has grown significantly in mainland China despite a de facto ban on K-pop concerts that began in 2016. But there's another reason for South Korea's growing popularity as a travel destination. In September 2025, Seoul temporarily relaxed visa restrictions on travel from mainland China. It offered any tour group of three or more people visa-free access for up to 15 days. After Seoul relaxed visa restrictions in 2025, Chinese travelers to South Korea jumped to 5.4 million. Chinese travelers are expected to visit popular tourist destinations in South Korea like Seoul, Busan and Jeju Island. For businesses in South Korea, this sudden popularity among Chinese travelers promises to inject some much-needed energy into the economy. They're really in a bit of a mood because the South Korean domestic demand has been on a downward trend for some time. So Korean retail brands, including the famous Olive Young and convenience stores, are offering Chinese-targeted promotions and discounts, with some of them even joining hands with Alipay and WeChat Pay to offer discounts and vouchers. So casinos in particular, they're preparing for the Lunar New Year dinner gala show and the Lunar New Year themed targeted events. And at the same time, online platforms are also adding their Chinese versions of translation in their website. But now the bilateral ties have improved, sort of. So both countries are signaling their intention to continue these visa-free policies and encourage each citizen's visit to each other's, each country's. So I would say this momentum is likely to continue for some time, especially when Japan is still embroiled with this and diplomatic disputes with China. But whether South Korea can replace Japan in the eyes of Chinese travelers remains to be seen. The chilly weather in South Korea also prevents it from commanding too far a lead against rival Asian destinations. While South Korea is predicted to be the top spot for Chinese travel, the gap between it and top Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia is razor thin.