Rubio Takes Completely Different Tack in Latest Munich Security Council Speech: Expert

Joining us now to discuss Rubio's speech at the Munich Security Conference is Kirvan Okun, former Lead Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance Coordinator for the U.S. Army. Good to have you with us today, Kirvan. We heard Rubio describing a single western civilization rooted in Christian faith, shared ancestry, and the sacrifices of our forefathers. Does defining the conflict in civilizational terms change how we prioritize threats from Beijing, from Moscow, and from radical Islamist movements? First of all, thank you again for having me on. It's good to see you. And absolutely, I think what Rubio was doing here, quite the stark contrast from J.D. Vance one year ago, who chastised European nations for their open borders and for allowing, as he would say, the war in Ukraine to go on. So Rubio is taking a different tone here, but he's absolutely correct in his assessment that the U.S. and Europe have shared values, that they need to work together as allies. A war, a global conflict against exactly what you talked about, China, Russia, Islamic extremism, that cannot be won without a strong alliance. And that strong alliance is between the U.S. and Western Europe, but it takes a stronger Western European defense program to hold up their end of the bargain. And I think that's what Rubio was getting at there. So when Rubio says President Trump is demanding serious reciprocity from Europe, what concrete indicators would look like for you in terms of defense spending, force posture, intel sharing or such to decide whether Europe is really taking it seriously and stepping up? President Trump has been consistent in this, right? NATO countries need to be spending five percent of their GDP. Long gone are the days where the United States military are paying for the defense of the world. We are no longer the global police. I think that's what both Republicans and Democrats have agreed to, that the U.S. can no longer sustain being the world police. So that's one part of it, having NATO countries do that five percent defense spending. But you touched on something very important to me there, and that is the intelligence sharing, right? So Europe has been getting away for many years with just relying on U.S. intelligence spending and the sheer amount of U.S. intelligence that is being shared among all partners. And I think that especially with what's going on in Ukraine, with Russia, that the onus is on Europe and Western Europe to do those intelligence collection and the tradecraft there and provide that, much like the U.S. has provided vast amounts of intelligence to Western Europe. Western Europe needs to, that's the reciprocity that we're talking about here. We need to have shared, equal sharing of intelligence there. And Rubio also talked about sharing cultural bonds and spiritual bonds, not just the economic and military ties, but in terms of your expertise, do the porous borders, uncontrolled migration that the U.S. has warned of in Europe and the cultural fragmentation that kind of shows up there as part of it, are they real vulnerabilities in terms of ISR assessments and deterrence planning? Or do you think Western leaders are not really treating them as relating to national security? Well, I think two things are true there. And one of which is that, I'll hit on the last thing you said, which is that European leaders do not, they've got their head in the sand. They do not see this mass migration, especially coming from North Africa into places like Italy and Spain. We're not talking about a mass migration of people that are just trying to flee, you know, trying to flee the violence of their countries. Yes, there is some of that going on. But what is happening here is this is giving, this is allowing for Islamic extremists to go into the ranks of those people trying to flee and get into countries like France and Germany and Italy. And those countries are seeing it. We're not hearing this on in global media and things like that. But if you get into those countries and you talk to the people who are dealing with this, the business owners on a day to day basis, they see it every day. Germany, as an example, has spent the last five or six years of protests on both sides, but protests from business leaders that this mass migration, just allowing this to happen, has negatively affected their business and their populations. We're seeing it in France. We're seeing it in Spain. And it's not helping anyone in Western Europe. And it is, as I always say, the thing here is that it is a quick flight from France, Germany, Spain into the United States. It's so difficult to get from Western Africa or Northern Africa into the United States. But once you've breached those borders into Western Europe, it becomes so much easier to get Islamic extremists into the United States. Fascinating point there. And in terms of threats from the CCP and potentially from Russia as well, some authoritarian regimes do openly conduct information and influence operations aimed at undermining Western faith, confidence, and cultural cohesion. We've seen many examples of that. But what have you seen in terms of how and also how the West should adapt if it really believes it is in a civilizational struggle? Yeah, absolutely. You nailed it there. You know, the CCP, Russian state media, they are being, they're very good at messaging and anti-Western messaging. Look, it worked in Africa in a place that I worked in, in Niger, where they removed first French forces and then U.S. forces out of that country. And now we have this minimal intelligence area within the Western Sahel. And you've got terrorist groups like JNIM and Islamic State who are rising up in these areas again, where once they were broken and defeated, the U.S. got out to give Russia a foothold into those African nations. And now we're seeing a rise of Islamic extremism there. But we've also got social media. We've all talked about TikTok and how the CCP has owned TikTok, even the U.S. version through ByteDance. Now, there are some changes that are going on there. But don't be fooled for a second. China is going to use social media to make the U.S. look bad, to make Western Europe look bad. And there's a reason for that. That is, when they do invade Taiwan, that there is a global outcry that China is doing the right thing because of things that they've seen, that young people have seen on social media. Yeah, this infiltration that we've seen so much of. And for viewers who hear Rubio's words and your words, indeed, and worry that the West is already well into decline, based on what you've seen in the intelligence world, are we still early enough in this fight to turn it around? And what would you tell ordinary citizens who want to help defend the civilization that he's talking about? Look, absolutely. We are not at a point of no return here. Western Europe needs to wake up. The United States needs to be strong and be strong for the allies. We cannot keep this in fighting. What I always say is these public political statements that even someone like Rubio, who is trying to position himself as a candidate for president in the next presidential election, I'm not too worried about the words that they say publicly, because that is a messaging to a certain voter base or the messages of MERS in Germany or Macron in France. Those public messaging, I'm not too worried about. I am more concerned about what's going on behind the scenes. Are those conversations happening? Look, this conference is happening with U.S. combatant commanders at the conference who were talking to their peers in European militaries. I want to know do some deep diving into how those conversations ended out. And knowing some of these combatant commanders, I know they are strong. They want a strong U.S. They want a strong alliance in Western Europe. We are nowhere near a point of no return right now. If the U.S. people want to know what they should be doing right now, I will say it frankly, get off social media, stop screaming at people, stop yelling at people. We are at a time, we are on the brink of a time in our history where the world will need to come together to fight a common evil. And if we are bickering back and forth about minute details of certain things, then we are in a lot of trouble. Kervin O'Quinn, always great to hear your thoughts. Thank you so much. And folks can learn more and hear more of your work at your podcast, This Week Explained. Thanks again, Kervin. Thank you so much. Thank you so much for that plug. It's always a pleasure. And as always, stay safe out there.