Just in: Zhang Youxia’s Secret Letter and the Fracture Inside China’s Military

Hi everyone, welcome. Welcome to today's real talk. Just in, a letter, a secret letter believed to have been written by the vice chairman of CMC, Zhang Youxia, before his arrest was released last night. It was released to a number of social media influencers and Chinese language media, and it's a long letter. Rather than wait until tonight to tell you about it, I want to do a special program now. And then I'll come back tonight to comment on it, to offer you more update and my analysis. But basically in this letter, General Zhang says that he sensed something might happen to him. So he decided to write down his thoughts and concerns in advance. And he specifically asked that the letter be made public, if he were taken. And the person who released the letter says it was also sent at the same time to Xi Jinping's office, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and other relevant CCP departments. Right now, the authenticity of this letter cannot be independently verified. So I want to be very clear about that, and everyone should make their own judgment. That said, the letter lays out Zhang Youxia's growing disagreements and deepening rift with Xi Jinping. And some of the details inside is extremely valuable and worth paying attention to. So that's what this program is all about. I want to walk you through that letter. So I'm just going to read it to you. I'm going to read you the full text of his letter. It's a little long, but it's very, very informative. Okay, let's start. So the letter, this is how it began. It says, if anything happens to me, please make this letter public. If they arrest me, many more people will certainly be arrested as well, not because we violated any law or discipline, but for one single reason. I hold a different view from comrade Xi Jinping on how the CMC chairman responsibility system should be understood. Of course, we also have major disagreements on the issue of using force to unify Taiwan, on strategic cooperation with Russia, and on the rapid promotion of senior PLA officers. Having these differences are normal within the party and the military and should be addressed and resolved through open discussions and consensus building. But now it appears that he has chosen a special method to deal with them. I want to tell Jinping, he addressed Xi Jinping in this letter mostly by using his first name. He actually used people's first names in this letter. So he said, I want to tell Jinping that as I write this letter, I'm reminded of something Ziyang, Ziyang meaning Zhao Ziyang, the former CCP leader and former vice chairman of CMC, who was sacked during the 1989 student movement. So, okay, so let me go back to the letter. So General Zhang said, I want to tell Jinping that as I write this letter, I'm reminded of something Ziyang once said back then, quote, we're old now. It doesn't really matter anymore. End quote. I have the means to carry out a military coup, but I will never do so. The cause will be catastrophic. Once events spiral out of control, the country will descend into civil war. And the first to pay the price will be innocent soldiers on both sides. If extraordinary measures are used against me, I will not resist. Right and wrong, justice and injustice, these are ultimately judged by the conscience of the people. I believe history will record the truth. I'm at peace. I leave these words in the hope that Comrade Jinping will reflect. You may have won, but victory should be accompanied by restraint. And there must be a moral line that is not crossed. Do not push things to the absolute extreme. As the saying goes, there are higher forces, excuse me, there are divine forces, or I mean, depends on how you translate that. I think it really means there are divine forces or there are higher forces watching over our head. What I can say with certainty is this, if I'm arrested, it will be carried out in the manner of a coup, planned quietly by three to five individuals, without any collective discussion by the party central or the Politburo, yet executed and announced in the name of the central authorities. So who actually violated the law and the party discipline? In 1989, it was Deng Xiaoping, not Zhao Ziyang. Yet Deng later still chose to uphold reform and opening policies in 1992. If I'm taken, there is a very high chance that Jinping will push China toward becoming another North Korea, fixated on armed reunification with Taiwan, and prepared at any moment to impose martial law through the military. I keep asking myself, once they arrest me, what charge will they assign? The first accusation will almost certainly be that I oppose the CMC chairman responsibility system. But think about this carefully. If the chairman were genuinely being held accountable for years of corruption within the military, would I oppose that? Of course not. What I oppose is turning this system into a patriarchal one-man system, where a single individual, Michael, manages everything, intervenes in every detail, and sees himself as a genuine expert and flawless supreme commander in all matters. Even Mao Zedong never controlled the military this way. Turning the people's army into the party's army is one thing. That has always been the reality. But turning it into a personal household army is deeply alarming. Those promoted at rocket speed feel only gratitude. They pledge unquestioning loyalty without principles. The army is made to sing about being good soldiers of Chairman Xi. This is straight out of the Cultural Revolution. Back then, information was tightly sealed, so propaganda worked. Today, information flows freely. No amount of propaganda can make people sincerely worship someone as a great leader. It only generates resentment. You've all seen the videos online. When Comrade Xi Jinping enters the hall, everyone stands and applauds. Just like in North Korea under Kim Jong-un. You've also seen my reaction at the scene. Internally, I felt repulsed, constrained, deeply uncomfortable. Does that count as opposing the chairman's responsibility system as well? Overseas media constantly exaggerate internal power struggles between Xi and me. Military intelligence departments regularly compile these reports and show them to me. I simply smiled and dismissed them. But if I'm arrested, the problem will not be me. It will be the system. If the system does not change, then anyone can become the next victim. Party leadership does not mean the top leader personally controlling every detail of everything. It means guiding the people to establish rules and long-term strategies, and then having everyone operate within those rules. The same principle applies to the military. The chairman responsibility system should mean that the chairman is accountable under collective leadership. Only in wartime does the CMC chairman become the supreme commander of the armed forces. In peacetime, when it comes to strategy, threat assessment, and promotions, no single individual should have absolute authority. This is precisely where Comrade Xi and I fundamentally disagree. The more serious problem is this. I have gradually come to realize that he is constantly looking for opportunities. Deep down, he wants a war. He wants desperately to personally command a grand historic conflict. The tensions in the South China Sea, and especially the clashes along the China-India border, were completely unnecessary. I have experienced real war. When leaders decide to start wars, countless soldiers lose their lives. And not long afterward, the same leaders shake hands again, calling each other comrade and brother. That is not something a human being should do. The soldiers and officers who fought along me are buried where they fell. Their parents and siblings often don't even have the money to travel and visit their graves. Creating such tragedies in peacetime, that was Deng Xiaoping's sin. Few people know this. Deng Xiaoping amended the constitution in 1982 to create the chairman responsibility system purely to elevate his own power above everyone else. There was no such system under Mao. Deng Xiaoping did not publicize this change because he understood very well that it served personal dictatorship. At the time, figures like Yang Shangkun helped push it through within the Central Military Commission. Deng revised the constitution. Xi Jinping revised the constitution. In both cases, everything was decided in advance by a small group of key figures. The National People's Congress had no real choice but to approve it. The Politburo had already made the decision. Anyone who refused to raise their hand would be dealt with. Later, Deng Xiaoping was able to remove Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang, and even rode tanks down Chang'an Avenue and opened fire on the people because the system placed ultimate power in his hands. Looking back, Deng Xiaoping committed so many wrongs. Was that truly good for the Deng family? Was it good for the party, for the country, or for the people? When I urge Jinping to stop, it is actually for his own good and for the sake of his family. After all, we grew up together in the same compound. We were like brothers. Only someone like me can still speak a few hard truths to him. Launching a war against Taiwan, followed by war with the United States and Japan, would not be anything like Deng Xiaoping's war with Vietnam or the suppression of students in 1989. The scale of disaster would be immeasurably greater. His family, meaning Xi Jinping's family, his family and our country would face endless calamities. Tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands of soldiers could die. I cannot imagine the consequences. If such a war drags on, and mutinies break out, or if the party state is eventually overthrown by the people, would there be bloody reckoning against those leaders who initiated the war? Even thinking about it is terrifying. The military exists to defend the country and protect the people. To believe that the military exists simply in order to wage war is a profoundly mistaken view. As long as I remain in the Central Military Commission, I can still try to advise him or at least restrain him from making catastrophic mistakes. But once I'm arrested, Zheng Li, meaning General Liu Zheng Li, Zheng Li and many other comrades will also be taken. The military will then be entirely controlled by officers personally selected by him. Our country will turn into a militarized state or live under constant martial law, becoming like North Korea. The consequences would be even worse than the Cultural Revolution. Let me now speak about my conflict with Jinping. It began before the Third Plenum. He pushed through the rapid promotion of many individuals, completely disregarding established military norms. This caused widespread resentment among officers and soldiers. More seriously, those individuals used the power in their hands and the trust of the top leader to form factions within the military and began gathering evidence in order to move against me. During the Third Plenum, Jinping and I had a direct confrontation. One issue was personnel appointments. The other was his proposal to place the entire country into a state of war preparation using the window created by Russia's war in Ukraine to move on Taiwan. Zheng Li and I opposed this. Zhang Shengming is the only CMC member left. Yeah, the newly promoted second vice chairman of CMC. So, okay, let me go back to the letter. So, Zheng Li and I opposed this. Zhang Shengming remained silent. I argue that the Central Military Commission must operate according to democratic centralism. Sorry, let me just interject. Democratic centralism is a CCP jargon. It means, it's a particular system in which consensus is built. Okay, let me go back to the letter. So, he, meaning she, he accused me of violating the chairman responsibility system. He became so agitated that he fell ill and had to be sent to the hospital. The Third Plenum nearly collapsed. Of course, only a very small number of people know what really happened. The standing committee was thrown into panic. That was when the party elders stepped in to help mediate. Later, what became known overseas as the Beidaihe Consensus began to circulate. Its core points were largely accurate. First, there was near agreement that Jinping would not seek another term at the 21st Party Congress. Second, for the sake of party and national stability, power needed to be appropriately decentralized. Cai Qi would handle party affairs. Li Qiang would oversee the state council, and I would be responsible for the military, effectively serving as a standing executive authority. The subsequent establishment of a central decision coordination mechanism was also meant to prevent catastrophic errors at the highest level of decision making. These developments can be seen clearly in public reporting. After the Third Plenum, the elders became much more active. Behind this was the role of the military in maintaining balance at the top of the power structure. So, ask yourselves, where did things truly go wrong after that? Cai Qi, Li Qiang, and the other members of the Politburo Standing Committee were all personally selected by Jinping. They take orders from him alone. Without Xi, they have no independent authority. Naturally, they prefer a system in which one man holds absolute power. If something goes wrong, the top leader absorbs the blame. Whatever disaster the country and the people suffer, it has nothing to do with them. That is exactly how they behaved during the pandemic. As for me, I could not openly defy the party central. Some activities I tried to decline quietly, others I had no choice but to go along with. I was powerless to change the overall structure. The party elders were even more constrained. In the end, they chose to move against me. And it is very likely that no elders would support me, even if Xi Jinping himself were the one who needed to be restrained. No one would back me in arresting Xi or attempting any kind of coup. If I have made big mistakes, there are two main ones. First, I supported Xi's constitutional amendment. Without the backing of the military, Cai Qi alone, relying only on the party and government system, could never have carried it through. That was precisely why Xi Jinping later moved toward extremes. At the 20th Party Congress, Hu Jintao was forcibly escorted out of the hall. I was shocked. After the 18th Party Congress, Hu had handed over power with dignity and grace. And 10 years later, this is how a formal general secretary is treated. As a human being, shouldn't there be a basic moral boundary? Everyone knows the reason. Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping had agreed that Hu Chunhua would enter the Politburo Standing Committee and become the chairman of the CPPCC. In the end, Hu Chunhua didn't just miss the Standing Committee. He was completely sidelined. He was not even in the Politburo. Second, I passively supported Xi's so-called no-limits backing of Russia, which in reality meant supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That decision turned all of Europe, and Ukraine in particular, against China. We overestimated Russia's strength. We believed a lightning war would quickly take Ukraine, and that Russia would then support us in taking Taiwan. What happened instead, both Russia and Ukraine resented us. Before the Lunar New Year, I visited Russia. Before the New Year, I visited Russia. The reception was high level, but the talks were cold and unfriendly. It was a meaningless war, people of the same ethnicity killing each other. If we were to fight Taiwan, it would be the same kind of tragedy. Let me add something here. At one point, I genuinely wanted to complete national reunification with Taiwan. But after listening to Liu Yazhou's analysis, I broke out in a cold sweat. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers could be sent into the sea and still never reach Taiwan's shores. Once war begins, Japan will be drawn in immediately. Military facilities, bridges, and oil depots along China's southeast coast will be destroyed within hours. Yes, we could destroy some buildings in Taiwan as well. But in the end, there would be war reparations. Overseas assets would be frozen. The state would stop functioning. The party would collapse. The nation would collapse. Xi's real problem lies with the group of flatterers surrounding him. They exaggerate his greatness, portraying him as a once-in-a-century leader. They tell him that once Taiwan is taken, the China Dream will be realized, and that he will surpass even Mao, meaning Mao Zedong. Anyone who speaks the truth to Xi risks being slapped in the face on the spot. People like Liu Yazhou, wise individuals who dare to tell the truth, can only end up in prison. I may not be an exception. After I'm arrested, they will certainly fabricate additional charges, treason, corruption, very likely. They need something. They need to tell the world that I'm a traitor, a corrupt official, a sellout to foreign powers. But think about it. I'm already a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. I could retire safely with full state-level treatment. Why would I betray my own country? My contacts with Russia and the United States were all conducted in the interest of national security, and any exchange of information was within authorized limits. In fact, when I spoke with Americans, the U.S. military deliberately revealed sensitive information to us. They showed us photos of our own military bases, layouts of nuclear facilities, even detailed images of party and state leaders' private residences. Their message was clear. With advanced technology, they monitor everything from the sky every day. They know everything. The purpose was to warn us, do not start a war. You have chance of winning. As for corruption, dragging a truckload of U.S. dollars and renminbi out of my home, does that even sound plausible? They may stage such videos. They may use western mainstream media to accuse me of every crime imaginable. That is all part of a familiar playbook. Do not take it at face value. My conflict with Xi Jinping has long been public. If I truly possessed massive hidden wealth, it would have been dealt with long ago. At my age and at my level, material possessions mean nothing. If I end up spending my remaining years in Qingcheng prison—by the way, Qingcheng prison is the prison reserved for VIP CCP officials—if I end up spending my remaining years in Qingcheng prison, or if Xi has me executed, I will have no use for such things anyway. One more thing. Last year, Xi asked me to watch the trial video of Xu Qinxian, the former commander of the 38th Army. By the way, this is the general that I told you about who defied Deng Xiaoping's order to open fire on the students. Yeah, General Xu Qinxian. Okay, so that's what he was talking about. So, okay, let me go back to the letter. Last year, Xi asked me to watch the trial video of Xu Qinxian, the former commander of the 38th Army. We retrieved it and watched it too. It lasted more than five hours. I was deeply shaken. After watching it, I wept for this loyal and principled general. I could not sleep the entire night. Other senior generals watched the video as well. Later, somehow, it was leaked overseas. I do not know what Xi Jinping felt after watching Xu Qinxian's trial. A general truly loyal to the people, one who would rather suffer humiliation himself than open fire on civilians. Finally, I have a few words to say to Comrade Jinping or my expectations of him. First, when the 21st Party Congress is convened, step down and leave your post as was promised after the third plenum. Second, do not initiate any form of war. The military exists to defend the country and protect the people, not to serve personal ambition. Third, respect the international order established by the United States and never turn the U.S. into an enemy. Fourth, purpose genuine reform and opening up. If you truly care about the Chinese people, power should be returned to the people and the long-promised commitment to democratic and constitutional governance made during the Yan'an period. It should be honored. He's saying honor the long-promised commitment to democratic and constitutional governance that was made during the Yan'an period. Make it happen. He ends by saying this, he said, if Jinping ultimately decides to arrest me, I hope media outlets everywhere will make this letter public. I hope he will see it. In parentheses, this letter says, the above content was dictated by me, compiled by a friend. I have reviewed it and authorized its release. No secretary was involved. Signed Zhang Youxia, December 2025. Okay, so I just read you the letter. Like I said, it came out last night and it's everywhere in the Chinese language media landscape. So I just read it to you. I'm going to do my regular programming tonight at probably 9.30. I'll offer you my analysis of this letter and also some of the latest development coming out of Beijing and it's crazy. So join me tonight at 9.30 for my regular program and I'll see you then. Okay. All right. Bye.