China and Russia Are Using Iran as Test Vehicle: Expert

And joining us now to discuss the protests in Iran is geopolitical analyst Brandon Wer. He is the senior national security editor at the National Interest. Brandon, you are of course the oracle who predicted Operation Midnight Hammer on this very show when no one else saw it coming. So no pressure, Brandon, but in all seriousness, we're having another Trump moment, right? His next move is hard to predict. People didn't expect him to go into Venezuela in the way that he did. What do you expect here? Well, I I thought he was going into Venezuela uh the way he did. I I I had that one too under my belt. But ultimately, this uh this issue in Iran is very unique. It's different from the 12-day war. It's different from what we did in June of last year because back then we didn't really have protests seeking clearly to change the regime. The real question I think that many people are asking, at least those people who are not taking sides, is, you know, how uh how large are these protests really? They look large. They sound fierce. Um but we've been through this before in Iran many times where large protests happen, but they don't overthrow the government. Trump might want to now nudge the regime off the edge of the cliff. And I would just warn everybody though that the Iranian regime might have sort of that old dead hand uh program that the Soviets used to have, which is basically if it looks like the regime is going to fall, if it looks like all is lost, they might just start popping off hypersonic missiles and nukes. uh because they probably have nukes. Uh they might start popping those off at Israel and the whole region, which is probably one reason why those Russian diplomats are fleeing Israel uh with such want and abandon. >> That's a very interesting data point that the Russian officials are leaving Israel. I want to understand the regime's ability to jam Starlink. Obviously, they've taken down their own internet for the public use, but even I've read reports that Elon Musk's uh satellite provided internet is also something that they have the capability to take out. >> Yeah. So, this is not an Iranian capability. This is a Russian and Chinese capability and they're using Iran as a test vehicle. Just as we used uh the Venezuela raid to test those really wild sonic weapons uh against uh Maduro's Cuban intelligence uh bodyguards, the Chinese and Russians have offloaded uh anti- satellite technology designed specifically to knock out Starlink to their allies in Iran who are of course using it. And this is not the first time the Iranians have jammed Western satellites. I documented this in my book uh The Shadow War, Iran's Quest for Supremacy. Basically, the Iranians routinely test blocking out their country from uh Western satellites because they know those satellites are used to beam in anti-regime propaganda. >> Yeah. As you point out, this seems like a completely another level compared to what Maduro had in terms of sophistication and preparation. >> Absolutely. >> You mentioned the sonic weapon that was used when they extracted Maduro. the the uh post that Caroline Levit shared that described a Venezuelan security apparatus for Maduro being overcome by that weapon was somewhat chilling. Could you describe that? And does it is that one of Trump's options should he choose action? >> I don't think he's going to use any kind of special forces or ground forces. He might if if it looks like the regime's really going to collapse and there's a window of opportunity, but landing even special forces is going to be a little bit more complicated in Iran than it was in say Venezuela. Uh I think he might do aerial attack like we saw in June. We already see those B2s being repositioned to Diego Garcia. If you've monitored the the um pattern of deployment uh of a US forces into the Middle East for the last week or so, it's almost identical to the pattern of deployment that preceded the 12-day war strikes, the uh you know, the strikes on those those nuclear facilities. So, Trump might very well be getting ready to initiate another series of air strikes. They might be more comprehensive. Uh also be watching for the Israelis. Interestingly, the Israelis have not used this as I thought they would. They're not using this to initiate strikes the way they struck Iran in the 12-day war. But more interestingly, I mean, we know MSAD's on the ground all over the place. And I suspect probably our own CIA helping to jin up these protests and give them greater discipline. Probably this is clearly a regime change operation by another name. Can you explore further your comment of some of the uh you know if all else fails options that the regime has and how the US might counter that in anything that they might do? >> Well, I think the reason another reason the US is moving all of these assets into the region is to boost the kind of missile defense capabilities. Uh the Iranians I am convinced along with the Houthis are likely to initiate sort of the mother of all swarm attacks against Israel with their hypersonic weapons, their long range ballistic missiles and their drones. And you know the is the Iranians probably have a latent nuclear capability. Last week there was a sort of implied threat from the Iranian president that they would be going nuclear in 24 hours and then that sort of fizzled away. I suspect they probably have surge capacity and they are probably preparing to to launch uh you know if all else fails they are probably to launch not only the mother of all swarms at Israel and and the American bases in the region but they might be preparing to detonate some nukes and we can't discount the fact that the Iranians have placed electromagnetic pulse weapons in the orbit around the earth. These are the OID satellites uh they've been placing up there since 2012 2013 and the EMP strike is a Sharia approved nuclear b nuclear attack without the kind of death of a nuclear attack. It basically knocks out all advanced electronics. So this is sort of the things to watch out for when we talk about an Iranian Samson option if you will. And just as we finish up, Brandon, taking out their air defenses does not defend against any of those capabilities you had described. Not at all. >> So, how how do you approach uh such a fragile situation like this if you're Trump? >> Well, I suspect the another reason Trump is moving the air assets in is to be able to strike those known facilities where they're housing these missiles and drones, knock out the drone facilities. this might be a more comprehensive strike if Trump feels the regime is going to fall and in response the regime is going to do a kind of final, you know, flipping of the bird, if you will, to the region and and I think that's another reason you're seeing these bombers being deployed. It's it's our own fail safe. So, that's something we could do. And then obviously the air defense systems though that we are putting in place uh throughout the region will help to mitigate some of the threat, but it won't stop at all. The Israelis know that and I think that's why the Israelis are also panicking. That's why Netanyahu went to Mara Lago recently and was begging for more air defense capabilities. And of course the American arsenal is depleting in and of itself. So this will be a very tough time. But I suspect that regime is on its way out and that's when things are going to get really nasty. >> Brandon, just as we finish up, are we talking hours, days, or weeks in terms of the final escalation that you predict? Uh, it's it's going to be weeks, days or weeks. I wish I could give you an exact a more exact like I did in in last summer, but it's it's coming. It's coming. I I think this is the end of the regime. The question is what replaces it. And I'm not convinced that the Shaw's grandson is at all the the right pick or the MEK. That that strike in the uh the rally in Los Angeles that you show with the U-Haul. I think that might have been MEK, which is another rival dissident group uh that doesn't want to see the Shaw take over a post uh Islamist Iran. So, there's a lot of problems that are going to open up the moment the regime in Iran falls. I don't want the United States in the middle of that. >> On the brink of history, Brandon Wikard, always appreciate your analysis in these moments. >> Thank you, sir.