Disaster! China funds a Billlion of Dollar on COPY SpaceX Reusable rockets - But FAILED Miserably…

[music] 92 flights in 2025. That is the pace China has already reached. With that momentum, China aims to close the gap with the US and SpaceX in 2026, especially in the race for reusable launch systems. Billions of dollars are now flowing into new reusable rocket programs to support that push. But this is where the real challenges begin. How realistic are these ambitions? and where might they fall short? Let's explore that question in today's episode of Great SpaceX. The expansion of China's aerospace industry is undeniable. This is clearly reflected in its achievement of 92 orbital flights, far exceeding the 68 flights recorded in 2024. For context, SpaceX itself did not pass 90 flights per year until 2023. This growth is being driven by progress across both state-owned launch providers and privatelyowned commercial companies. And both sectors have ambitious plans extending into 2026. Let's begin with the private sector. One of the most prominent examples is Landspace, the company behind the Xuche rocket family. After successfully launching 2 into orbit and deploying its payload in 2024, Landspace proceeded with the debut of Zhu 3 in late 2025. This vehicle is a powerful SpaceX inspired design that combines elements similar to both Falcon 9 and Starship. As we observed, Zhu 3 successfully reached orbit, but failed during its landing attempt. As a result, Landspace will now aim to redesign and improve nearly every aspect of the vehicle. On the very last day of 2025, the company announced its registration for an initial public offering. This application was officially accepted by the Shanghai stock exchange, Star Market, as confirmed by Lansspace's IPO status on the regulators website. The move is reportedly intended to raise approximately $1 billion US or about 7.5 billion yuan. This funding will be directed toward expanding launch services for reusable rockets with a specific focus on further development of Zuway 3. The star market is known for its strong emphasis on advanced technology. In the past, participation requirements were extremely strict, particularly for commercial aerospace companies. However, recent changes in Chinese government policy toward the commercial space sector have relaxed these requirements. This has made it easier for companies to build credibility and gain access to public capital markets. As a result, Landspace is not alone. Other firms such as Space Pioneer and Galactic Energy are also planning their own IPOs. It's safe to say that Landspace is demonstrating a very strong level of commitment. The scale of funding being pursued is significantly larger than that of any company mentioned so far. With this level of investment, Landspace is likely to further upgrade its launch and landing infrastructure and may also expand existing platforms or construct new ones. However, the primary focus will be on vehicle production. The company plans to build additional prototypes to increase launch frequency during the coming year with the goal of achieving booster recovery as quickly as possible. That said, before any of this potential can be realized, Landspace must complete a full root cause analysis of the failed landing attempt and implement corrective improvements. These changes will likely be applied across a new batch of prototypes. Looking back at the Zhu 3 debut, most phases of the mission progressed relatively smoothly. Problems appeared to arise when the engine ignited for the landing burn. This suggests that the issue may lie within the engines themselves, which could have been operating near their limits after earlier flight phases. There may have also been leaks within the engine system or associated pipelines. Issues of this nature typically take time to resolve. They require not only immediate fixes, but also long-term reliability improvements, particularly for a vehicle intended for repeated reuse. As a result, the second 3 flight will likely not occur until around the second quarter of the year. Overall, the challenges faced by Zuchi 3 closely resemble those encountered by Blue Origin's New Glenn. Blue Origin was able to complete a follow-up flight after experiencing problems on its initial mission. This raises an important question. Do you think Landspace will succeed on its next attempt? Let me know with a yes or a no down in the comments below. But before I tell you the answer, let's turn our attention to the state sector. Late last year, China's National Space Program also took a major step toward reusability with the debut of the Long March 12A. China operates many versions and variants within the Long March rocket family. And this year, the country will continue pushing reusability efforts across that lineup. Most notably, the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, which operates under the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, has announced plans to develop a liquidfueled launch vehicle with a diameter of 5 m. This rocket is known as Long March 10A, an upgraded variant of the Long March 10 lunar launch vehicle. The goal of Long Mara is to launch the Manga spacecraft to the Tong space station in low Earth orbit. An initial launch is planned for early this year with the mission intended to help pave the way for the Long March 10's future lunar missions because it targets a lower orbit. Long March 10A is being designed with reusability in mind, something that the original Long March 10 configuration was unlikely to achieve. In terms of design, the original Long Mar features three boosters in its first stage. Similar to Falcon Heavy, Long March 10A is expected to remove the two side boosters, making it more comparable to Falcon 9, though with a large diameter. Additionally, Long March 10A will reduce the number of stages from 3 to two, further aligning it with Falcon 9's architecture. In this configuration, the vehicle is expected to carry approximately 14 tons to low Earth orbit when reusable, or up to 18 tons in an expendable mode. This represents yet another attempt to follow SpaceX's design philosophy and highlights a broader shift within Chinese aerospace away from expendable launch systems and toward reusability. The advantages of reusability are wellestablished, including lower costs, faster operational tempo, and improved long-term efficiency. SpaceX has demonstrated these benefits for more than a decade, and China now appears to be moving in the same direction. Long March 10A is expected to be the next major step in this transition. While a launch is anticipated early this year, no firm schedule has been announced. Beyond this variant, China has also explored a long march 10B configuration. Images shared on Chinese social media suggest this version could carry an 11 ton payload to an orbit of 900 km with a 50° inclination. Many observers believe this capability would support deployments of the Guo Wong satellite constellation. In terms of design, Long March 10B is expected to feature two stages with a methylox fueled second stage because of its higher orbital target. The vehicle's design would differ from 10A. Renderings show a configuration that closely resembles Starship without side boosters and with an increased overall diameter. It is expected to launch from the Wang spaceport and be recovered using a netbased system. The ambitions behind the long march 10 variants are clear and closely mirror those of private companies such as Landspace. However, unlike private firms, Long March development is directly funded by the Chinese government. Even without publicly stated budgets, it is evident that the level of investment is enormous and likely comparable to that of major US launch programs. With plans of this magnitude, insufficient preparation can easily lead to failure. This risk is especially relevant given the copybased development strategy employed by many Chinese aerospace organizations. While this approach can accelerate progress, it does not guarantee a deep understanding of the underlying technologies over time. Originality may also be diminished. This leads to the central question. Can these investments enable China to surpass SpaceX specifically or the US more broadly? The question matters because while China's plans appear promising on paper, success is far from guaranteed. Comparisons between Zhuche 3 and Blue Origins New Glenn remain largely theoretical. Without effective design changes and operational maturity, further failures remain entirely possible. This uncertainty is reinforced by Landspace's track record. Prior to Zhu 3, the company experienced multiple setbacks. The solid field 1 mission in 2018 failed. Performance improved with 2, which introduced methylox propulsion. But the most recent Zhu 2e mission prior to Zuchi 3 also ended in failure. As a result, success for XU 3 in 2026 remains highly uncertain. Without careful execution and correct technical decisions, the decisions the program could face significant delays or even major setbacks. The outcome of future flights will heavily influence Landpace's broader strategy. As discussed, the company is investing billions of dollars into this vehicle. Only successful missions will allow these investments to deliver meaningful returns. Failure would instead result in further delays and lost momentum. Similar doubts also surround the Long March 10 program, particularly after China's failed attempt to recover the Long March 12A booster in late 2025. That event highlighted the extreme difficulty of mastering reusable launch technology. These are not isolated cases. China has experienced several other recent failures. In November of 2025, Galactic Energy's Saras 1 rocket suffered an upper stage malfunction that prevented its satellites from reaching their intended orbits, resulting in their loss. Earlier in June of 2024, Space Pioneers Tong Long 3 rocket experienced a serious malfunction during a static fire test when the booster unexpectedly left the launchpad. This incident has delayed the vehicle's first flight to this day. In contrast, SpaceX continues to demonstrate overwhelming dominance. In terms of launch cadence alone, SpaceX ended the year with 165 Falcon 9 launches and five Starship flights. This total nearly doubled the combined number of launches conducted by all of China. That gap is expected to widen further as Starship operations mature. In the area of reusability, where China is aiming to surpass SpaceX, the difference is even more pronounced. Falcon 9 booster landings have become routine operations. As a result, total landing counts and individual booster reuse records continue to climb. Meanwhile, SpaceX has begun mastering Starship recovery using the Mechazilla arms, which is widely regarded as one of the most complex landing techniques ever attempted. It's also important to remember that Starship is designed for full and rapid reusability, a goal that fundamentally separates SpaceX from all competitors. SpaceX aims to achieve this capability early this year, which would further widen the gap between itself and every rival, including China. SpaceX's operational scale is already immense. Once Starship demonstrates inconsistent performance, the size and capability of SpaceX's fleet will overshadow nearly every other effort currently underway. Clearly, the reusable space race is becoming more competitive and more exciting. New players are entering the field, and it is an increasingly dynamic landscape. China continuing its familiar approach, China, continuing its familiar approach of adapting existing designs, is attempting to prove its ambitions in a domain where SpaceX currently sets the standard. However, based on current results and the sheer momentum of SpaceX, it remains extremely difficult and possibly unrealistic for Chinese organizations to surpass SpaceX despite their substantial investment and rising launch numbers. Even with visible progress, inadequate preparation could still lead to severe failures and long-term setbacks. That said, the competition itself remains compelling. This year will also see major developments from other players including Blue Origin's New Glenn, Rocket Labs Neutron, Stoke Space's Nova, and others. When these programs are compared alongside China's efforts, the outcome may be far more balanced and unpredictable. Would you like an episode that explores these matchups in detail? Let me know with Let's Do It in the comment section down below. Otherwise, folks, this has been Kevin with Great SpaceX. Don't forget to like the video and subscribe if you haven't already to stay up to date with yours truly on the latest milestones in SpaceX's journey. It's now 2026, so thank you so much for watching.