This Is NOT the Bitcoin Cycle You Think It Is

There are two groups of people who think they've got Bitcoin all figured out. The first is the four-year cycle crowd, and they're feeling quite confident these days. Basically, they think that the top is already in or there's one final leg up, but that's it. On the other hand, you've got the extended cycle folks, who believe that Bitcoin will peak in Q2 of next year, along with the business cycle. But here's the thing, I think that both camps are wrong. And in this video, I'm going to explain exactly why that is and what I think will happen instead. All right, so let's start with the four-year cycle folks. And like I said, they've been feeling mighty good about themselves lately. After all, we already put in a new all-time high in Q4, just like the past two cycles, and the price has been struggling a lot since then. So they're like, you see, it's the same as before. But I think that their theory is going to be proven wrong real soon. And the reason why is because the factors causing Bitcoin to struggle lately have nothing to do with the four-year cycle. And it's in fact, way more nuanced than anyone is talking about. There's actually three main factors that have been holding Bitcoin down lately. And all three are on the verge of reversing, which is why I think the four-year cycle will be proven wrong real soon. Now, the first factor is a theory that's been gaining steam around X these days. It's called the Bitcoin IPO moment. And it was first popularized by Jordy Visser, a notable macro investor. His idea is simple but powerful. He basically argues that Bitcoin is acting like a company that just went public. The early believers, aka the OGs who've held for years, are finally taking profits now that the market has real institutional liquidity. So what we've been seeing this past month or so is not panic selling, but rather a controlled and methodical distribution. And this is super similar to what founders and VCs do after an ICO, by the way. They sell and they take profits. Not because they've lost faith necessarily, but because they can finally diversify after close to a decade of holding. But anyhow, this isn't just some theory that sounds good, by the way. No, the on-chain data actually backs it up. Recently, we've seen a bunch of old coins that haven't moved for like 5 to 10 years suddenly become active again. Galaxy Digital even confirmed that they helped one client sell close to $9 billion worth of Bitcoin. But yeah, all those OGs selling explains why Bitcoin's been stuck while things like gold or stocks have been going higher. But here's the thing. These distribution phases eventually end. After all, those OGs don't have an infinite number of coins to sell, right? So once the old supply finishes changing hands, that overhang disappears. And when we look at on-chain data, we see that this has already started to happen. Long-term holder spending has started to flatten and the ETFs are quietly buying it up on the other side. So if Visser is right, and it sure looks like he is, then we're nearing the end of that process. And once it's done, Bitcoin can finally start to move freely again. Now, the second big factor that's been holding Bitcoin back is none other than the US dollar, specifically the DXY. You see, when the DXY goes up, it means that the dollar is getting stronger. And that means that most risk assets suffer. That's why Bitcoin, which is arguably the purest risk asset on planet Earth, has been struggling due to this recent DXY strength. But here's the thing, I don't think that lasts much longer. Because this DXY rally looks more like a temporary spike than a new long-term uptrend. After all, the Fed's ending QT very soon and more rate cuts are likely on the way. So when that happens, liquidity typically flows back into risk assets and the dollar weakens as a result. Add to that the fact that DXY is hitting some major technical resistance on the charts, and you've got all the makings of a reversal. So point is, that dollar strength is probably going to reverse soon. And once that happens, that headwind that's been holding Bitcoin back disappears overnight. But anyhow, there is one more factor that explains this recent Bitcoin weakness. And that's the US government shutdown. You see, when the government shuts down, the treasury department slows or halts a lot of its normal payments. At the same time, the treasury can't issue as many new short-term bills, which means fewer reserves get recycled into the banking system. That causes bank reserves to fall, cash piles up at the treasury general account, and liquidity gets drained from the system overall. So it's not necessarily that people are suddenly bearish on Bitcoin in particular. It's the fact that the fuel for risk assets has literally been frozen for a few weeks. But after that shutdown ends, and by the time you're watching this video, it probably already has, then the treasury flips that switch back on. Their spending resumes, payments flow again, and those delayed outlays hit the system once again. That's what creates a mini liquidity wave, a burst of fresh capital, if you will, that'll likely push Bitcoin and other risk assets higher. And I actually think that when this happens, we'll start to see Bitcoin pump quite aggressively. Because there's been a ton of shorts going all the way to new all-time highs that have been untouched for weeks. And typically, market makers like to liquidate both longs and shorts, right? But for the past few weeks, the only things that have been getting liquidated were the longs. So point is, I think we could see a surprise move that goes and grabs all that short liquidity, and that'll catch everyone off guard. But anyhow, those three factors collectively are why I feel strongly that the four-year cycle folks will be proven wrong quite soon. But what about the other side, though? The extended cycle folks? Well, here's the thing. I actually agree with their broader thesis. Like, I think that Bitcoin's price is actually driven by things like the business cycle or macro factors rather than some arbitrary time period. After all, Bitcoin's graduated to become a legit institutional asset. And that makes it more intertwined with the broader macro world than ever before. It now trades on liquidity, interest rates, and the economy rather than the internal dynamics that dominated in the past. So my point is, I think that this camp is right about the general connection. But they're still going to be wrong about a very important point. You see, a lot of people share this ISM business cycle chart with Bitcoin's price on top. And they're like, look, Bitcoin's pretty well correlated with the business cycle. So we expect it to peak in 2026 instead. But even if that's true, they're still missing one key point that may get them wrecked. Because everyone is expecting the ISM to return to its standard cyclical shape that has much more defined peaks and valleys. But I strongly believe that that won't happen. And that instead, it will continue to have a more sideways, grindy shape that doesn't look anything like it has in the past. Why? Well, in order to understand the reason, you've got to know that the ISM basically represents the health of the US manufacturing sector. But as you can imagine, things have changed quite a bit for the sector in the past few years. Like during the pandemic era, they had all that supply chain craziness that locked things up and then let it all back out at once. So that heavily contributed to the shape of the chart in those years. But on top of that, companies aren't panicking to hire nor fire. So the swings are going to be smaller. And then all those government spending initiatives like the CHIPS Act or infrastructure bills, they are being deployed in a slow and steady manner rather than all at once. And lastly, other major world economies like China or Europe aren't sending any big demand shocks our way either. So point is, I think it's a big mistake to expect that the ISM will return to its classic shape, at least for the next few years. And that's why if Bitcoin really does track macro now, then that means its next move is probably going to be a grind. Not one big vertical rally that peaks in mid-2026, followed by a deep bear market, but rather a series of choppy, uneven moves that follows a channel higher into late 2026. It's a cycle that will drag out, test your patience and constantly fake people out along the way. But yeah, my argument is that the extended cycle guys are right about Bitcoin following the economy, but wrong about how it'll look. That old clean V-shape is gone. And it's now a slow staircase with Bitcoin climbing it one step at a time. But yeah, that's just my personal forecast. But regardless of what I think, one thing's for certain, Bitcoin will continue to surprise people and prove most of us wrong. Like remember that M2 correlation that everyone obsessed over? For months, it tracked Bitcoin's price perfectly until it didn't. And I said many times that it wouldn't last. And sure enough, I was right. But anyhow, all that proves is how hard the market is to navigate these days. Fortunately, we have built something to help everyday retail investors navigate these uncertain times. And that's none other than RetailDAO. You see, it's not an alpha group or trading chat. It's a coordination layer for retail investors to team up and work together instead of going it alone. We do things like farm airdrops together, research hot narratives together, and even try out new tools or protocols together. Because we believe that when retail works together, we are stronger than ever and can actually build a consistent edge in these markets. So if any of that resonates with you, come join us today. Links down below in the description.