Why Is Bitcoin CRASHING_!

Stablecoins are usurping part of the role that we thought Bitcoin would play. So our bullish forecast out there is 1.5 million by 2030. Given what's happening to stablecoins, which are serving emerging markets in a way that we thought Bitcoin would, I think we could take maybe $300,000 off of that bullish case just for stablecoins. So watch that space. Stablecoins are scaling here, I think, much faster than anyone would have expected. It was a long time Bitcoin bull, Kathy Wood, on Swakbox yesterday, changing her tune a bit, it says here. It's been a volatile week for crypto. Joining us now, Anthony Pompliano, founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management. I thought the whole exercise was just kind of silly. It's at 100,000. So you got a price target of 1.5 million. Okay, so that's 15 times. You're starting at 15 times as if you can make a forecast like that with any degree of certainty or accuracy. And then your resolution on the whole idea is so fine because of what you're calculating, you can cut $300,000 off. And then it's only going up 12 times. The whole thing just seems silly. I don't know why we really ran it there. But we are at 100,000. Do you think it goes below significantly? We've seen this movie before. Yeah, look, I think that there's a reckoning that's happening across both crypto and Wall Street, which is the Wall Street folks are realizing that Bitcoin is real and it's going to be here to stay. At the same time, the crypto people are realizing that Wall Street plays a very different game. Wall Street actually does not want an asset that goes up 100x and then drops 80% every three to four years. They want something that is much more predictable, much more stable. So why'd they get so involved with it? Well, because Bitcoin is not as risky today as it used to be, right? If you Of course. But if you think about the risk you take, you should get paid for it. And so right now, Bitcoin is much less risky today than it was a decade ago. And so people are going to get a lower return. Now, what I think is really interesting is also that lower volatility in Bitcoin is allowing these large pools of capital to come in and start playing. And so in a weird way, the volatility coming down is opening up the total addressable market of And what we have seen is less volatility to the upside, but it likely also means less volatility to the downside. Usually in bull markets, you see four or five, six different 30 plus percent drawdowns. We haven't seen that during this bull market. And so you're just getting dampening of volatility over time, which frankly is boring to a lot of the early investors. And I think that's why you see a lot of those guys starting to sell. If you don't take her price targets into account, the point she was making, I thought was interesting. And that is that maybe the notion that Bitcoin becomes more than just a store of value in digital gold, the idea that it eventually becomes something for cross-border transactions and instantaneous payment, that could be state. She's basically saying stable coin could take a lot of that market share. I would go even further. I think it's already taking that, right? I think that's kind of her point. So Bitcoin is never going to be anything other than digital gold? For years, I think I've been coming on here and saying, hey, we know for sure that people want to use it as a store of value. Maybe one day it'll become a medium of exchange. You know, the question of always, like, are you going to buy your coffee with it? The hard part about using Bitcoin for transactions in that manner is if you think Bitcoin is going to appreciate, you don't want to spend an asset that is likely to appreciate the future guys that bought the pizza. Now, correct. And so instead, what do you do? You spend something that you think is going to depreciate over time, which is the U.S. dollar. And so the rise of stable coins, I think, is really just taking the exact same asset to the U.S. dollar with the same monetary policy. You're putting it on new rails. And what we're finding is that the demand for dollars was way higher than we ever thought before. And I think that's a good thing for the United States and for the U.S. dollar. A lot of times gold, though, is non-correlated with risk assets. In fact, sometimes it's, you know, sometimes it's a place where you can park during times of turbulence in the stock market. You might like gold or treasures or something like that. Bitcoin is still like a NASDAQ stock, you know, on steroids at times. When does that change? Well, here's what's interesting is at times it trades, you know, right in line with NASDAQ. Other times it's not. I mean, earlier, a couple of weeks ago, NASDAQ was running and Bitcoin was going sideways. Right. And so I think that what people are really trying to figure out is, is it correlated? Is it non-correlated? Is it inversely correlated? And part of it is that Bitcoin is still in this transition period. You know, my friend, Jordy Visser, has got this great way of framing it. He says Bitcoin is having its IPO moment. And the whole idea is that you have the early holders of Bitcoin who are dispersing that Bitcoin into the market. And there has been billions and billions of billions of dollars of sales of Bitcoin coming from those early holders. Yet the Bitcoin price is still at one hundred thousand dollars. And so there is this persistent bid coming from the traditional financial system saying we want to buy the Bitcoin and we're happy to take it out of Do you think that the possibility of Bitcoin becoming basically worthless has been taken off the table at this point? And if not, what would it mean to the financial system in this country, to the the treasury market, too? I mean, you've got institutional buyers, you've got governments, you've got sovereigns, you've got people buying. If it went to zero, that would be a. Yeah, that'd be a real issue, would it not? Look, there's always some, you know, a person who's going to point out the kind of 0.001 percent chance of a software, you know, quantum computer, whatever. But I think for most people, they see Bitcoin is not going away. It's here to stay. And I think that's why you see these large pools of people that think it's going to zero and never short it. I would short it if I thought it was good. The market is the referee. If people have for some reason think it's going to zero, that's a luxury belief. That's what I call it, because nothing can believe it. Henry Blodgett still thinks it's going to zero. It's either going to a million or to zero. It's a luxury belief. You can have it and no one's ever going to call you out on it, but you're never going to short it because you don't ever put any money down. I do think that there is a theme that is happening right now that people have not yet wrapped their head around, which is this whole idea of crypto is going to be dead in a decade. Right. People are not going to be talking about crypto. We're just going to talk about finance. Everything is now merging together. You have the crypto world and you've got the traditional finance world. So crypto will be just so intertwined with the financial world that we won't even use the term? We used to think about the internet, like internet finance, and then there's the finance industry. Now it's just finance. Same thing is going to happen with crypto, right? You know, BlackRock as an example, BlackRock could be described as a crypto company. Their most profitable product is their Bitcoin product. They're talking about tokenization all the time. They are trying to adopt these new technologies. All of the big asset managers, they're trying to figure out how do we play here? Do we actually have funds that invest in this space? Do we tokenize our funds? What do we do? And so over the next decade or so, crypto as a concept is going to be dead and you're just going to hear people talk about finance. And I think that's a good thing. That's the maturation of the industry. How long did the people point out, I guess, how long were tulip bulbs a thing? They were for years and years and years. I don't think 20 years though, was it? Look, I think that what people forget sometimes is how quickly everything is accelerating now. You know, one of the things that we've done is we've launched a software product called Sylvia that allows somebody to come in and they can attach their bank account, their brokerage account, their crypto account. They can upload their real estate, their private investments, their credit cards, all this stuff. And the AI goes to work and starts to immediately begin helping them get their financial life in better order, right? It's kind of help you grow your investment portfolio. And the reason why that's important is because now all of a sudden software can replace financial advisors or your stock brokers. And so we think that the same way that AI is attacking things in personal finance with a product like Sylvia, we also think that same thing is happening. Bitcoin is attacking store of value. We think stable coins are attacking a medium of exchange. We think tokenization is going to attack the stock market. It is the digitization. And the framework I've been talking about since 2018, 2017, is we had an analog financial system. We then upgraded it to an electronic QSYP system. So you used to have a physical stock certificate, a physical deed in your home, etc. It all became electronic. Now we are going from the electronic QSYP to this digital world. It's the same assets. It's the same market structure. It is just now going to be in a different form factor. And that allows all the software to get to use a lot more energy. It does need a lot more energy. All right, Anthony. Thank you.