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Operation Honey Pot: Paste this emoji 🍯 in your comment below. China’s not the only one expanding in the South China Sea. Vietnam’s building islands too—and fast. But when tensions rise between China and the U.S., will Vietnam take a side?
Vietnam pulled an uno reverse on China
and is building their own artificial
islands in the South China Sea. But if
war breaks out, whose side will Vietnam
be on? Welcome to China andensored. I'm
Chris Chapel. Before I begin, I want to
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now before it disappears. So, back to
the show. So, at this point, most of you
have probably heard about China's
artificial islands in the South China
Sea and how China's using them to
legitimize its territorial claims and
prepare for war with the US and its
allies. But it turns out China is not
the only country building artificial
islands in the South China Sea. So is
Vietnam. Vietnam has been building
artificial islands at breakneck speeds,
second only to China, especially in the
past four years. In total, Vietnam now
has about 2200 acres worth of artificial
land in the South China Sea, spread
across 21 artificial islands in the
Spratley Island chain. For comparison,
China only has seven artificial islands
in the Spratleys. Of course, China has
plenty more in other places, but like
China's, Vietnam's artificial islands
are designed to hold wararfs, airways,
munition storage, and more. Potentially,
even heavy weaponry, those things that
look like the island is cracking like an
egg. Yeah, those are trenches.
So, why is Vietnam building all this? Is
Vietnam worried that the US will
threaten its national security in the
name of democracy? again. Is this
Vietnam's way of helping China, a fellow
communist nation, in exchange for some
sort of deal? Somehow, I don't think so.
I think this has less to do with
countering the US and everything to do
with countering China.
Communists turning on each other. How
unthinkable until you think about all
those times throughout history when they
have and then you're like, "Ah, yeah,
that checks out." The fact that China
publicly denounced Vietnam's island
building in the South China Sea earlier
this year seems to prove my point. How
dare you? Who do you think you are? Us?
Folks, lots more episode to come. But
first, if you like this kind of deep
dive into what's really going on in
China, you've got to subscribe to my
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Now, of course, there are those who
think that Vietnam isn't trying to
counter China. For example, there's this
2023 Cambridge article which says
Vietnam isn't balancing China and that
Vietnam does not see China as a threat
to its survival, so it's not reacting as
if it were. How did the article come to
that conclusion? Well, it does
acknowledge that China invaded Vietnam
in 1979 and that the two countries have
clashed over maritime disputes in the
South China Sea here and there from time
to time. But after looking at Vietnam
and China's agreements, official
Vietnamese defense efforts, and the
number of highlevel meetings between
officials, the Cambridge article
concludes that Vietnamese leaders are
okay living with China and that there's
no way they'll get closer to the US.
Of course, this article came out just
days before the US and Vietnam announced
their comprehensive strategic
partnership
is an irony.
The Cambridge article also questions
whether the US can ever get any country,
not just Vietnam, to contain China with
it. Never mind that we are seeing Trump
rally countries to do just that,
especially with rare earths and ship
building agreements. Somehow I don't
think it's a coincidence that one of the
authors of that Cambridge article is the
same author who wrote a rather stupid
article published by MIT that takes at
face value what Chinese communist
staterun media says and ignores
everything they do and then concludes
China does not pose the type of military
threat that the conventional wisdom
claims it does. which is like saying
jumping off a skyscraper doesn't pose
the type of grievous bodily harm that
conventional wisdom claims it does. The
conclusion, the US shouldn't improve
warf fighting capabilities in the
Pacific or decouple from China because
that risk creating problems where none
exist. Somehow I don't think Pete
Hegsth, US Secretary of War and real
life guy who somehow looks like PS1
graphics, sees it that way because last
week he met with Vietnamese leaders to
discuss defense cooperation, including
defense, trade, and information sharing.
There's even talk about Vietnam
acquiring some Loheed Martin C130
Hercules military transport planes,
Loheed Martin S92 helicopters, or Boeing
Chinuks. Of course, Vietnam has to be
careful not to upset China by getting
too cozy with the US. They're playing
this like the ladies man in an 80s
sitcom who's trying to go on two dates
with two girls at the same time in the
same location. After all, China's deeply
integrated into Vietnam's economy. It's
currently Vietnam's largest trading
partner and foreign direct investor,
which might explain why US military aid
to Vietnam has historically been very
limited. Nothing like USA to the
Taliban. That's right. Some vets lived
long enough to see America sending
military vehicles to Vietnam to fight
communists, but not the Vietnamese
communists.
Vietnam has a very delicate line to tow
and they've been towing it. Vietnam does
joint patrols with China and allows
Chinese warships to make port calls. But
Vietnam has also done a joint naval
exercise in the South China Sea with
China's rival India and allowed Indian
naval vessels to visit. It also allowed
US aircraft carrier visits in 2018,
2020, and 2023.
On top of that, Vietnam has defense
agreements with Japan, the Philippines,
Australia, South Korea, and others.
Their foreign policy sounds more like
foreign polyamory.
What can we conclude from all this?
Well, Vietnam wants just one thing, to
protect Vietnam, which really, if you
get right down to it, is pretty much
what all nations want. But this raises
an interesting question. Whose side
would Vietnam be on in a Chinese war
over Taiwan? Would Vietnam be forced to
fight on China's side by Chinese
investment in the country? Or would it
take side with the US and come to
Taiwan's defense? After all, Vietnam
doesn't like it when China infringes on
its sovereignty. Gaining Taiwan could
further embolden China to do whatever it
wants with less restraint. Officially,
Vietnam abides by the three nos. no
military alliances, no aligning with one
country against another, and no foreign
military bases on Vietnamese soil. And
it affirms China's one China policy by
saying Taiwan is an inseparable part of
Chinese territory. Chances are Vietnam
would stay out of a direct conflict with
China over Taiwan if at all possible. So
from a distance, it looked like they're
saying, "Forget about it."
But that doesn't mean that Vietnam is on
China's side. As of this recording, the
US and Vietnam haven't come to any
agreements regarding arms supplies, and
we don't know how much yet about what
happened at HEG's meeting with
Vietnamese officials. But what we do
know is that Vietnam's not stupid enough
to take China's word at face value. It
knows that it can't blindly trust China
to follow through with its promises,
much less respect its security concerns.
China proved this last year by expanding
its claims into Vietnamese waters in the
Gulf of Tonkan, going from this to this.
So, as much as Cambridge claims Vietnam
is engaged in a reduced defense effort,
this does not look like a Vietnam that's
chill with China, this looks like a
Vietnam that's preparing for war for its
strategic interests through any means
necessary. even if it means making
secret arms deals with Russia against US
sanctions. So, what do you think? What
would Vietnam do in the case of a war
between the US and China? Leave your
comments below with that honeypot emoji.
And don't get left behind when everyone
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training this weekend. I'm Chris Chapel.
Thanks for watching.