Zillow releases updated 2026 home price forecast. (no one was prepared for this)

But first I want to talk about some states that could be tilting from a correction to a crash here in late 2025. The home values are dropping already by a lot in certain states and cities. Let's get into this data and look at where prices are down the most in the last 12 months. According to data from Zillow, which you can see here on reVentureApp, and we're going to start with Florida everyone. In Florida, prices are down 5.1% in the last 12 months. However, we have some cities in Florida that are down double digits in the last 12 months. So for anyone who's saying there is no home price correction, for anyone who's saying that prices aren't going down, they're wrong. They are going down in a lot of different cities and states in the US. And if we're seeing double digit declines year over year, like in Punta Gorda in Cape Coral, that's indicative of a crash taking place. Now, if we zoom out here on this map on reVentureApp, you can see it's the areas in blue where home values are already going down the most. So values are already dropping all across Florida. They're already dropping all across Texas. They're already dropping all across Northern California. And they're now even dropping in Tennessee, Georgia, North Carolina, parts of South Carolina, in Arizona, and Colorado. And here's the stats, everyone. Over the last year, home prices are down in 15 different states and areas, which you can see on this list. So we already have price declines in 15 different states and areas in the last year. Florida, D.C., Arizona, Hawaii, interestingly, Texas, Georgia, Vermont, Colorado, California, is where values are already dropping year over year. But what's even more interesting is month over month, values in August dropped in 24 out of 50 states. So half the states in America are already experiencing value declines. The question is, when are these value declines going to accelerate into a crash? And are we already seeing that play out in certain areas? Well, folks, I want to show you some listings here that I found on Zillow of sellers doing big, big price cuts. We're seeing more sellers do big, big price cuts in certain markets. And for sure, this is not happening in every market. This is not happening in every neighborhood. But, you know, folks, I've just been finding more and more houses like this one. Tell me what you guys think of this house in Dallas. Do you think this is a fair enough price cut? It's a five bed, three bath on the market for $395,000 or $188 a foot. Now take a look at what this house was listed at a couple of years ago, $650,000 list price in 2023. It's been on the market for over two years. Now they've cut it to $395,000. So we have a seller here doing a $240,000 price cut south of Dallas. The house is still sitting. Is it enough to sell? We'll have to see. What about in North Venice, Florida? This is on the West Coast of Florida. This is a house that's currently pending. Take a look at how much the seller has cut the price on this house, everyone. It's currently pending. It's currently under contract. But this is a mammoth price cut. They originally listed for $589,000 in 2024. $589,000 in 2024 was the original list price. Now it's under contract for $399,000. So they've cut the price $180,000, $190,000, almost a 30% reduction. And why I'm showing you this data is so you all understand that in the hard hit markets, values are dropping. Prices are going down a lot, actually, in certain neighborhoods. And this downturn is being led by two particular parties. There's two particular types of homeowners in America that are causing values to go down more. If you're a homebuyer wanting a deal right now, you could look to these two areas to find a deal. One is homebuilders. Homebuilders are doing mammoth price cuts. We've literally never seen before in U.S. housing market history this situation where new homes are cheaper than existing homes by this month much on a back-to-back basis. What does that tell you? That tells you that existing home owners have been slower to react to this housing market downturn, that actually there isn't the type of inflation that people talk about in the housing market. It doesn't really exist. And the builders are showing you that. They're cutting prices. They're compressing margins. They're giving deals. They're giving discounts. And the existing home sellers haven't quite caught on as much. And I built this calculator to help you guys, actually. And I asked the question, how much money do you need to make to buy a $400,000 house? How much money do you need to make to buy a $400,000 house? I want you guys to think about that. And this right here is the overall problem with the housing market, everyone, because the median income in America is $84,000. The median income is $84,000, but you have to make $108,000 to buy a house with a mortgage for $400,000. Oh, interesting. We have some people calling BS. Let's see. Beau says he calls BS. He thinks 30% is too much to spend of your gross income on your mortgage payment. A lot of people still fail at 25. I think your numbers are way too lenient. I personally kind of agree with you, Beau. I think 30% is kind of high, right? We talked about 30%. If we did 25%, say you didn't want to spend more than 25%, you got to make $130,000 to buy that $400,000 house. Miami, by Zillow's own data, is down 4.2% in the last 12 months. Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach are already going down 4.2%. What's the ReVenture forecast? ReVenture is forecasting another minus 4.2%. This is an interesting question. Can you speak to the subjective concept of 300,000 homes going for close to a million in the King County area? I can't imagine people will be able to stay afloat. Let's just look at this house. I'm going to do some analysis for you guys real quick here because this is interesting. This house costs $10,000 a month to buy, according to Zillow. Until next time, everyone.