History Tells Us This Bubble In Stocks Will Not End Well | New Harbor Financial
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In this latest monthly outlook from the advisors at New Harbor Financial, John and Mike discuss investing in a world of nosebleed valuations levels during a time when the Fed is cutting rates.
This doesn't happen often.
What makes more sense: Ride the current party until it ends? Or play it safe and leave it early?
We evaluate the options in today's video, as well as what to do if sitting on big gains in the precious metals.
We also identify several important end-of-year moves investors should consider implementing before the winter holidays arrive.
#bullmarket #marketcorrection #goldprice
0:00 - Intro: Dedicated Update on Market Outlook and Portfolio Adjustments
1:18 - Extreme Valuations: Echoes of Dot-Com Bubble, Signs of Rampant Speculation
2:00 - How New Harbor Handles Overvaluation: Tactical Underweight, Not Out of Equities
3:03 - John Hussman’s Chart: Non-Financial Market Cap/GVA at All-Time Highs
4:07 - Hussman’s Scatter Plot: Predicts -6% Annual S&P Returns Over 12 Years
4:43 - Vanguard’s Grim Forecast: 3.3-5.3% Equity Returns vs. 3-4% Cash, No Volatility
5:50 - Tactical Approach: 45% Equities, Watch Breadth, Hedge with Calls
6:59 - Narrowing Breadth: Small/Mid-Caps Lead, but Overbought Signals Emerge
8:13 - Technicals vs. Valuations: Aligning with Mark Newton’s Momentum Strategy
10:13 - Momentum Intact: No Crash Yet, but Watch for Narrowing Breadth & Sell Signals
11:17 - Classic Topping: 2000 Bubble-Like Divergences, Less Participation
12:23 - Indicators of Trend Change: Engine Lights Before Wheels Fall Off
13:00 - Embracing Regret: Sell Early to Avoid Bigger Losses in High-Valuation Markets
14:05 - Older Investors’ Risk: 50+ Can’t Afford a Lost Decade (-6% Returns)
15:59 - AI Bubble Echoes: Nvidia’s Vendor Financing Mirrors Dot-Com Shenanigans
25:01 - AI Capex Concerns: $800B Revenue Shortfall per Bain, Ego-Driven Spending
29:40 - Precious Metals Surge: Gold/Silver at Highs, GDX Doubled, Time to Hedge?
31:34 - GDX Monthly Chart: Massive Breakout, Potential to Double Again to $100-120
33:31 - Hedging Gold: Trimmed to 10%, Covered Calls Reduce Exposure to 7%
34:34 - Gold’s Parabolic Run: 3+ Std Dev Above 50-Day MA, Pullback Likely
35:33 - Silver’s Breakout: Targeting $50, but Consolidate First—Trim Overweights
38:29 - Why Hedge Gold? Plan B for Corrections, Redeploy Dry Powder Later
40:32 - Hedging Options: Inverse Funds, Puts, Costless Collars for Protection
42:36 - Fed Rate Cuts: Tailwind for Bonds, Not Stocks Long-Term—Market Expects 1% Drop
46:40 - Recession Risk: Historical Cuts Signal Downturn, Panic Cuts Loom
47:50 - Fed Dissension: Moran’s 5 Cuts vs. Rate Hike Calls, Stagflation Fears
50:46 - CPI Shelter Lag: 40% of CPI Overstated, Pulls Yields Down as It Corrects
52:20 - Bond Yields in Recessions: Don’t Always Tank, 1970s Stagflation Spike
55:21 - Gold’s 50-Year Lesson: 1980 Buyers Broke Even in 2025—Trim, Don’t Worship
56:49 - Year-End Planning: Tax-Loss Harvesting, Roth Conversions, Defined Benefit Plans
1:00:38 - Tax-Loss Harvesting: Swap Exxon for XLE/Chevron to Offset Gains
1:02:47 - Roth IRA Deadline: Tax Filing + Extensions, Conversions by Year-End
1:03:38 - Defined Benefit Plans: Supercharge Tax-Deferred Savings for Small Businesses
1:06:07 - Final Thoughts: Hedge Appreciated Stocks with Costless Collars for 2026-2028
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